Russia appears to have 'gone ballistic' in Syria — and it may be helping ISIS
Russia is showing no signs that it intends to forgive and forget Turkey's decision to down a Russian warplane two weeks ago.
Moscow has chosen to retaliate for the incident asymmetrically, hitting Turkish economic and military interests instead of engaging in a direct conflict with Ankara that might lead to a military confrontation with NATO.
But the Russians appear to have "gone ballistic" in their determination to wipe out Turkish influence in northern Syria and help regime forces reach Aleppo, a UN official told McClatchy on Monday.
A stepped-up Russian bombing campaign in the Bayirbucak region of northwest Syria, near the strategically important city of Azaz, has primarily targeted the Turkey-backed Turkmen rebels and civilians — and the Turkish aid convoys that supply them.
The strikes are in-line with an objective Russia has had since the beginning of its air campaign in Syria — namely, to undermine Turkey's Syria policy of bolstering rebels fighting Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's regime and to prevent the Turks from establishing a "safe zone" for displaced Syrians that might hinder the regime's efforts to take Aleppo.
That city is the second-largest in Syria and divided between government and rebel forces. The Assad regime launched a large-scale offensive to retake the city in mid-October with help from Russia and Iran.
[url=http://static6.businessinsider.com/image/5665b9b7c281441c008b80bb-960/screen shot 2015-12-07 at 11.53.42 am.png][/url]Google Maps
"There has been an uptick in bombing in northern Syria as part of the reaction to the downing of the Su-24," Boris Zilberman, a Russia expert with the Washington, DC-based think tank Foundation for Defense of Democracies, told Business Insider in an email.
He continued: "Providing an opening for Assad to advance to Aleppo or any other advances is consistent with Russia's strategy all along. The situation with Turkey is an excuse to double down."
Indeed, the increased airstrikes on Turkish interests and allies in northern Syria is as much about hastening a vital win for the Russia-backed Syrian regime as it is about getting back at Ankara.
"If there is going to be a partition in Syria, and Assad is going to build his own state in Latakia, Bayirbucak is a strategic point and the Turkmen will have to be driven out," Abdurrahman Mustafa, president of the Syrian Turkmen Assembly, told the Independent last week.
[url=http://static3.businessinsider.com/image/5661f39784307655008b7964-960/screen shot 2015-12-04 at 3.11.34 pm.png][/url]Reuters
Russia, for its part, insists that its planes have only ever targeted "terrorists." But Turkey had complained previously about Russia bombing villages in northwestern Syria that are predominantly inhabited by civilians and Turkmen rebel brigades battling Assad — not members of al-Qaeda affiliate Jabhat al-Nusra or ISIS.
"Putin's larger immediate goal is to shut down Turkey's link to Aleppo, thereby preparing the way for Assad (perhaps even in coordination with the PKK-affiliated Kurds) to besiege and eventually recapture the city," Middle East expert Tony Badran, a research fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, wrote last week in Tablet.
Metin Gurcan, a Turkish military expert, expressed a similar sentiment in Al-Monitor late last month. He noted that the Russian operation near the border helps Russian and Syrian troops clear northern Latakia of opposition fighters — a necessary prerequisite to "further Syrian regime and Russian moves toward Idlib and Aleppo."
Additionally, Gurcan wrote, the bombing campaign helps the Assad regime "secure more defensible, expanded territory before an eventual cease-fire, as recommended in the Vienna meetings, goes into effect."
There is little Turkey can do about Russia's bombing campaign near its border without provoking a situation in which NATO would be forced to come to its defense.
In moves evidently meant as a message to deter Turkish jets from shooting down Russian planes in the future, Russia reportedly equipped its jets flying in Syria with air-to-air missiles for self-defense. It also sent a state-of-the-art S-400 missile system to the Russian Hemeimeem air base near Latakia — about 30 miles south of the Turkish border.
Thomson ReutersAn S-400 defense missile system appears to be driving out of a cargo plane at Hmeymim airbase.
The US-led anti-ISIS coalition — of which Turkey is a part — may intervene, however, if it sees that the Russian airstrikes have created an opening for ISIS to make significant gains near Azaz and advance toward Aleppo.
"Everyone knows that any wrong move creates a vacuum, and the Islamic State will capitalize on it," the UN official told McClatchy. "In fact IS has taken quite a bit of ground" near Azaz.
In Tablet, Badran argued that this consequence was deliberate on Russia's part.
"By creating an opening for ISIS to make a push toward Azaz, Putin will leverage the US and Europe to pressure Turkey to shut down this section of its border. If ISIS actually makes it to Azaz, Russia can then invite the US and the Europeans to join it in strikes against ISIS, and in support of the Kurds," he wrote.
Zilberman said it would be in the anti-ISIS coalition's interest to shut down this vulnerable section of Turkey's border anyway.
"The United States should be pushing the Turks to close the border and stem the flow of fighters and terror financing crossing the border," Zilberman told Business Insider in an email. "That is in the interest of US and EU national security."
http://www.businessinsider.com/russia-syria-doubling-down-2015-12?utm_source=feedburner&%3Butm_medium=referral&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+businessinsider+%28Business+Insider%29
Russia is showing no signs that it intends to forgive and forget Turkey's decision to down a Russian warplane two weeks ago.
Moscow has chosen to retaliate for the incident asymmetrically, hitting Turkish economic and military interests instead of engaging in a direct conflict with Ankara that might lead to a military confrontation with NATO.
But the Russians appear to have "gone ballistic" in their determination to wipe out Turkish influence in northern Syria and help regime forces reach Aleppo, a UN official told McClatchy on Monday.
A stepped-up Russian bombing campaign in the Bayirbucak region of northwest Syria, near the strategically important city of Azaz, has primarily targeted the Turkey-backed Turkmen rebels and civilians — and the Turkish aid convoys that supply them.
The strikes are in-line with an objective Russia has had since the beginning of its air campaign in Syria — namely, to undermine Turkey's Syria policy of bolstering rebels fighting Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's regime and to prevent the Turks from establishing a "safe zone" for displaced Syrians that might hinder the regime's efforts to take Aleppo.
That city is the second-largest in Syria and divided between government and rebel forces. The Assad regime launched a large-scale offensive to retake the city in mid-October with help from Russia and Iran.
[url=http://static6.businessinsider.com/image/5665b9b7c281441c008b80bb-960/screen shot 2015-12-07 at 11.53.42 am.png][/url]Google Maps
"There has been an uptick in bombing in northern Syria as part of the reaction to the downing of the Su-24," Boris Zilberman, a Russia expert with the Washington, DC-based think tank Foundation for Defense of Democracies, told Business Insider in an email.
He continued: "Providing an opening for Assad to advance to Aleppo or any other advances is consistent with Russia's strategy all along. The situation with Turkey is an excuse to double down."
Indeed, the increased airstrikes on Turkish interests and allies in northern Syria is as much about hastening a vital win for the Russia-backed Syrian regime as it is about getting back at Ankara.
"If there is going to be a partition in Syria, and Assad is going to build his own state in Latakia, Bayirbucak is a strategic point and the Turkmen will have to be driven out," Abdurrahman Mustafa, president of the Syrian Turkmen Assembly, told the Independent last week.
[url=http://static3.businessinsider.com/image/5661f39784307655008b7964-960/screen shot 2015-12-04 at 3.11.34 pm.png][/url]Reuters
Russia, for its part, insists that its planes have only ever targeted "terrorists." But Turkey had complained previously about Russia bombing villages in northwestern Syria that are predominantly inhabited by civilians and Turkmen rebel brigades battling Assad — not members of al-Qaeda affiliate Jabhat al-Nusra or ISIS.
"Putin's larger immediate goal is to shut down Turkey's link to Aleppo, thereby preparing the way for Assad (perhaps even in coordination with the PKK-affiliated Kurds) to besiege and eventually recapture the city," Middle East expert Tony Badran, a research fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, wrote last week in Tablet.
Metin Gurcan, a Turkish military expert, expressed a similar sentiment in Al-Monitor late last month. He noted that the Russian operation near the border helps Russian and Syrian troops clear northern Latakia of opposition fighters — a necessary prerequisite to "further Syrian regime and Russian moves toward Idlib and Aleppo."
Additionally, Gurcan wrote, the bombing campaign helps the Assad regime "secure more defensible, expanded territory before an eventual cease-fire, as recommended in the Vienna meetings, goes into effect."
There is little Turkey can do about Russia's bombing campaign near its border without provoking a situation in which NATO would be forced to come to its defense.
In moves evidently meant as a message to deter Turkish jets from shooting down Russian planes in the future, Russia reportedly equipped its jets flying in Syria with air-to-air missiles for self-defense. It also sent a state-of-the-art S-400 missile system to the Russian Hemeimeem air base near Latakia — about 30 miles south of the Turkish border.
Thomson ReutersAn S-400 defense missile system appears to be driving out of a cargo plane at Hmeymim airbase.
The US-led anti-ISIS coalition — of which Turkey is a part — may intervene, however, if it sees that the Russian airstrikes have created an opening for ISIS to make significant gains near Azaz and advance toward Aleppo.
"Everyone knows that any wrong move creates a vacuum, and the Islamic State will capitalize on it," the UN official told McClatchy. "In fact IS has taken quite a bit of ground" near Azaz.
In Tablet, Badran argued that this consequence was deliberate on Russia's part.
"By creating an opening for ISIS to make a push toward Azaz, Putin will leverage the US and Europe to pressure Turkey to shut down this section of its border. If ISIS actually makes it to Azaz, Russia can then invite the US and the Europeans to join it in strikes against ISIS, and in support of the Kurds," he wrote.
Zilberman said it would be in the anti-ISIS coalition's interest to shut down this vulnerable section of Turkey's border anyway.
"The United States should be pushing the Turks to close the border and stem the flow of fighters and terror financing crossing the border," Zilberman told Business Insider in an email. "That is in the interest of US and EU national security."
http://www.businessinsider.com/russia-syria-doubling-down-2015-12?utm_source=feedburner&%3Butm_medium=referral&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+businessinsider+%28Business+Insider%29
Today at 8:08 am by Rocky
» MM&C 4/25/24 National Bank of Iraq goes live with Temenos core banking and payments
Today at 8:06 am by Rocky
» utube MM&C 4/26/24 Iraqi Dinar - US Treasury Exchange Rates- Focus - Banking Partnerships - Rate C
Today at 8:06 am by Rocky
» A banking official indicates a "danger" to Iraq by depriving more than half of its banks of dollars
Today at 7:55 am by Rocky
» With the participation of the Association of Private Banks, investment opportunities are on the tabl
Today at 7:45 am by Rocky
» Within a month... an Iranian border crossing recorded a noticeable increase in exports of goods to I
Today at 7:44 am by Rocky
» The Association of Private Banks appreciates the efforts of the government and the Central Bank to c
Today at 7:43 am by Rocky
» Al-Maliki's coalition presents a third candidate for the position of governor of Diyala
Today at 6:57 am by Rocky
» Arab gathering: The Kirkuk problem is getting complicated and the Sudanese must intervene
Today at 6:56 am by Rocky
» Next week.. a Kurdish delegation will visit Baghdad to meet with the Minister of Finance
Today at 6:54 am by Rocky
» Under the pretext of salaries... Al-Party refrains from handing over port revenues to Baghdad
Today at 6:53 am by Rocky
» Association of Banks: For the first time, we are witnessing a clear targeting of depriving half of t
Today at 6:51 am by Rocky
» Parliament does not know the reason for the delay in sending the 2024 budget schedules: Voting takes
Today at 6:49 am by Rocky
» Applicants for the 2024 Hajj are demanding that the Central Bank secure the dollar for them through
Today at 5:09 am by Rocky
» Governmental and private banks will showcase their services tomorrow during Financial Inclusion Week
Today at 5:08 am by Rocky
» Iraq's oil exports rise despite OPEC+ cuts
Today at 5:06 am by Rocky
» A study explodes a "surprise"... Iraq is among the countries that export oil to "Israel": How is the
Today at 5:04 am by Rocky
» Al-Araji emphasizes working to strengthen national identity
Today at 5:02 am by Rocky
» Al-Sudani visits Saudi Arabia to participate in the World Economic Forum in Riyadh
Today at 5:01 am by Rocky
» Iraq is talking about producing one million additional liters of gasoline
Today at 4:59 am by Rocky
» The Council of Ministers approves the implementation of the Baghdad Metro project
Today at 4:56 am by Rocky
» Minister of Commerce: We formed a joint economic committee with Türkiye
Today at 4:55 am by Rocky
» Resources: Government measures have contributed to improving the water situation in Iraq
Today at 4:53 am by Rocky
» Parliamentary Finance: Baghdad will continue to send salaries to the region’s employees until settle
Today at 4:51 am by Rocky
» A parliamentarian describes the corruption of Iraqi ports as “ghouls” and reveals the involvement of
Today at 4:49 am by Rocky
» Obelisk Hour: Basra is the subject of political conflict and ambiguity over the fate of the funds al
Today at 4:48 am by Rocky
» Turkmen leader: An agreement on the local government of Kirkuk is near
Today at 4:45 am by Rocky
» Anbar calls for the operation of its factories despite financial obstacles
Today at 4:44 am by Rocky
» Turki: The crisis of the Presidency of Parliament prompted the Sunnis to amend the Council’s interna
Today at 4:43 am by Rocky
» The Agriculture Committee confirms the existence of Iraqi-Turkish-Iranian discussions on water
Today at 4:42 am by Rocky
» Resources diagnose the challenges facing the water file in Iraq
Today at 4:38 am by Rocky
» Parliament pledges to the Interior Ministry: We will transfer money to buy weapons from citizens
Today at 4:33 am by Rocky
» Al-Issawi is the closest.. Parliament sets the date for deciding the choice of the new president
Today at 4:31 am by Rocky
» Deputy: Iraq's investments have risen and need a comprehensive review of previous years
Today at 4:30 am by Rocky
» Iraqis consume 7 billion eggs annually and import about $900 million
Today at 4:28 am by Rocky
» The Iranian role complicates attempts at open cooperation between Iraq and Turkey. Turkey is trying
Today at 4:26 am by Rocky
» Move in Iran to obtain $242 billion from Iraq in compensation for the eight-year war
Today at 4:25 am by Rocky
» 12 decisions from the Council of Ministers regarding the Baghdad Metro and Najaf-Karbala train proje
Today at 4:23 am by Rocky
» Sudanese Advisor: The path to development has begun... the Baka and the militias “we silence them wi
Today at 4:21 am by Rocky
» Not from Kurdistan.. How did Iraq become a source of oil for “Israeli tanks”?
Today at 4:19 am by Rocky
» Parliamentary Agriculture criticizes the Sudanese and Erdogan agreement: Türkiye will control water
Today at 4:16 am by Rocky
» The Iraqi government issues new decisions
Yesterday at 2:35 pm by Rocky
» The story of “reduced oil” to Jordan, from “compulsion” to mutual benefit.. Is there a loss?
Yesterday at 2:33 pm by Rocky
» The Council of Ministers takes 12 decisions for the Baghdad Metro and the Najaf-Karbala train
Yesterday at 2:32 pm by Rocky
» utube MM&C 4/23/24 Iraqi Dinar - IQD Update - Development Road Project - Saviour of Global Banking
Yesterday at 10:18 am by Rocky
» Kidney from pig transplanted into deathly ill New Jersey woman — and begins working almost immediat
Yesterday at 10:15 am by Bama Diva
» The most difficult option.. Warnings of the danger of floating the Iraqi dinar without achieving an
Yesterday at 9:48 am by Rocky
» Trade from the “Economic Committee” with Türkiye: It will overcome all obstacles facing the traders
Yesterday at 9:46 am by Rocky
» Washington's hope for stable relations with Baghdad clashes with Iraqi parties' rejection of the Ame
Yesterday at 9:41 am by Rocky
» Karim Badr: Development is America’s will to kill silk
Yesterday at 9:36 am by Rocky
» Oil: Opening of a new port for liquid gas for vehicles in Baghdad
Yesterday at 9:33 am by Rocky
» A media advisor warns of corruption in a draft law on the Parliament’s agenda
Yesterday at 9:21 am by Rocky
» Economist: There is serious work to lift US sanctions on Iraqi banks
Yesterday at 9:16 am by Rocky
» Will the agreements signed with the US Treasury reflect positively on the exchange rates?
Yesterday at 7:52 am by Rocky
» Iraq continues its quest to join the World Trade Organization
Yesterday at 7:51 am by Rocky
» Iraq completes the completion of the files for the initial offer of goods and services to join the W
Yesterday at 7:50 am by Rocky
» Economist: Travelers' dollars are leaking into the parallel market...and this is what the Central Ba
Yesterday at 7:32 am by Rocky
» President of the Federal Court: It is not permissible to force anyone to join any party, and the pol
Yesterday at 7:30 am by Rocky
» The Council of Ministers holds its session headed by Al-Sudani
Yesterday at 7:27 am by Rocky
» America weakens Baghdad...and increases Kurdistan's military capabilities
Yesterday at 7:26 am by Rocky
» The Iraqi government plans to build 10,000 schools throughout the country
Yesterday at 7:23 am by Rocky
» American threats close the Iraqi Stock Exchange at a loss
Yesterday at 7:21 am by Rocky
» Increase in external transfers at the Central Bank
Yesterday at 7:20 am by Rocky
» Al-Maliki calls on Britain to cancel restrictions on the entry of its companies into Iraq
Yesterday at 7:18 am by Rocky
» Planning and the European Union are discussing signing a number of agreements in the development, en
Yesterday at 7:16 am by Rocky
» Parliament talks about the mechanism for recovering smuggled funds and hints at the next stage
Yesterday at 7:13 am by Rocky
» Interior Ministry: The number of completed national cards reached 37 million cards
Yesterday at 7:06 am by Rocky
» Amnesty International: Violations of freedom and human rights continue in Iraq and the Kurdistan Reg
Yesterday at 7:04 am by Rocky
» Parliamentary Oil: The government is proceeding with the decision to raise the price of improved gas
Yesterday at 7:03 am by Rocky
» A parliamentary committee in Basra to investigate violations of the port company and the local gover
Yesterday at 7:00 am by Rocky
» Revealing the 10 most important American exports to Iraq
Yesterday at 5:31 am by Rocky
» A noticeable increase in the rate of Iraq's import of Chinese cooling devices
Yesterday at 5:30 am by Rocky
» Prime Minister: Working on projects without completing the infrastructure is a waste of money
Yesterday at 5:28 am by Rocky
» Iraq.. Extending the deadline for registration procedures on plots of land
Yesterday at 5:27 am by Rocky
» What is the main purpose of conducting the population census in Iraq?
Yesterday at 5:25 am by Rocky
» A plan to transform Iraq from a barren land to green with 5 million trees
Yesterday at 5:24 am by Rocky
» The Housing Fund announces the acceptance of more than 11 thousand loans through the Ur platform
Yesterday at 5:23 am by Rocky
» The Bank of Baghdad is moving to increase its capital to 400 billion dinars
Yesterday at 5:20 am by Rocky
» The electronic payment system will soon be adopted on Iraqi buses
Yesterday at 5:19 am by Rocky
» “It threatens our interests and destroys our economy.” An Iraqi project “irritates” the Kuwaiti stre
Yesterday at 5:18 am by Rocky
» Warning from the Central Bank about “misuse of electronic payment cards”
Yesterday at 5:17 am by Rocky
» Iraq and the Sultanate of Oman are discussing sending capacities through the Gulf countries
Yesterday at 5:16 am by Rocky
» The fact that a decision was issued to deport Syrian workers from Iraq
Yesterday at 5:14 am by Rocky
» Rice comes first... America exports 10 foodstuffs worth more than 350 million dollars to Iraq
Yesterday at 5:14 am by Rocky
» A sixth licensing round for gas exploration
Yesterday at 5:12 am by Rocky
» Baghdad is preparing to host the 50th session of the Arab Labor Conference
Yesterday at 5:11 am by Rocky
» Scientific symposium on the future vision of the tripartite budget
Yesterday at 5:09 am by Rocky
» Five conversion power stations enter service in Najaf
Yesterday at 5:08 am by Rocky
» Planning: Conduct a population census next November
Yesterday at 5:07 am by Rocky
» Experts: Spreading misleading information harms development and investment
Yesterday at 5:03 am by Rocky
» Economists call for tightening money laundering laws and port controls
Yesterday at 5:02 am by Rocky
» Today's newspapers are interested in Sudanese's visit to Anbar Governorate and preparations for cond
Yesterday at 5:00 am by Rocky
» Iraq and Russia discuss cooperation between the two countries in the field of information and artifi
Yesterday at 4:58 am by Rocky
» With international and Arab participation. Diyala University hosts the International Specialized Sci
Yesterday at 4:56 am by Rocky
» The Basra government discusses with a UN delegation support for owners of qualified companies to est
Yesterday at 4:49 am by Rocky
» Oil stabilizes amid signs of an economic slowdown in America
Yesterday at 4:48 am by Rocky
» More than 11 thousand loans announced by the Housing Fund via the Ur platform
Yesterday at 4:47 am by Rocky
» A parliamentarian talks about the "tsunami of multinational begging" and identifies their crossing p
Yesterday at 4:43 am by Rocky
» Iraq alone possesses 9% of the world's reserves...a magical material to stimulate agriculture and th
Yesterday at 4:40 am by Rocky