Why should Washington stand by the protesters in Iraq?
By Douglas Oliphant
Douglas Oliphant, a former director of Iraq on the National Security Council, is a senior fellow in New America and a managing partner at Mantid International.
Douglas Oliphant, a former director of Iraq on the National Security Council, is a senior fellow in New America and a managing partner at Mantid International.
The many protests of Iraqi youth against a corrupt and ineffective government offer the United States a rare opportunity in Iraq. Washington has the power to make a strong statement in favor of democracy, civil society, accountability, and the fight against corruption, while disrupting Iranian efforts in the region. Unfortunately, the US government appears to be acting timidly and supporting a dysfunctional government rather than a reform movement that - though not pro-American - shares American goals and objectives. Change in the system.
Iraqi youths have been protesting (with one break for a big religious holiday) since October 1. The main themes of the protests are economic functions - jobs, services, infrastructure - but the sub-theme is largely related to mismanagement and discontent with Iranian influence. The demonstrations are centered on Tahrir Square in central Baghdad, an amazing expression of the social renaissance observed by observers on the ground a few years ago. While the protesters remained peaceful, the government responded to the violence that killed at least 240 people (possibly more) and injured thousands.
The government being protested is the product of the 2018 elections. To make a long story short, the elections left the Sadrists and Fatah-backed Iranian militias in power - in close cooperation with the KDP. Although there are some technocratic ministers in the West, most of the power in this government is at least friendly to Iran, if not allied with Iran. Given the election result, the United States was willing to withstand the outcome - although this is not the first choice at all.
Today's protests, against this government, are unique in the history of Iraq. The demonstrators belong to the Shiite Arab majority, which is the majority in the government, so the protests have no hint of sectarianism. These protests are neither anti-occupation nor anti-Western. There is no contamination of the military coup. They are not Islamists. In fact, almost nothing hates these protests, except for a violent response.
These protests are basically about reform. Protesters want to see corrupt politicians go to jail. They want their election process to be free and fair. They want their political institutions to be less malicious and rigid, necessitating some constitutional amendments. There are no calls for a dictator or the imposition of Iranian-style religious rule. They want democracy, but in its full sense, not just elections.
The protests have a clear pledge against Iran. Iran has been a malicious party in Iraqi politics and has actively encouraged imbalances and corruption, and people know that. Again, the demonstrators are not pro-American. But they are hostile to Iran. That's good enough.
All these factors clearly indicate what US policy should be. While maintaining stability, the United States must support the demands of the demonstrators and help propel this gently disappointing government, the latest in a decade of that disappointment. Demonstrators are demanding new elections, and the United States should fully support this, both as a matter of principle and as a practical matter. Clearly, this government no longer has a popular mandate, and new elections are necessary to restore legitimacy. In practice, it is difficult to see forces opposing US interests successful in new elections under strict supervision. It is clear that militias allied to Fatah are involved (with the government) in the deaths of protesters.
This is also an opportunity to unify US policy on Iraq. In the Trump administration, Iraq policy was divided between those who believed in the power of Iraqi democracy and those who saw Iraq as an occupied territory for Iranian sympathizers. Without giving up either argument, this moment is an opportunity for both sides to meet on a policy that achieves both goals: helping protesters reform Iraq's project and advancing Iranian influence.
To that end, the administration must empower a high-ranking official - whether Ambassador Matthew Tuiler at the US Embassy in Baghdad or a special representative - in order to coordinate vigorously U.S. policy, including the work of the Department of Defense, Treasury, Commerce, and Intelligence. This is a unique moment, an unexpected opportunity to fix some of the bad consequences of the American occupation. The United States must not let the opportunity fade away.
Change is coming. If Baghdad somehow curbs these demonstrations, it is certain that another round will come. Does the United States really want the Iraqi youth community to remember us as the actor who stood and supported, at least passively, the old regime?
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