Of all the obstacles that need to be overcome, the ethno-sectarian distribution system remains the biggest one in the al-Kadhimi government’s path toward success
Mustafa al-Kadhimi’s government was established six months after Adel Abdul-Mahdi resigned due to the anti-government protests, which started in Iraq in September 2019.
Can Mustafa al-Kadhimi’s government be successful? The ethno-sectarian distribution system -- the distribution of government resources among the political parties -- has become the main backbone of politics in the post-2003 period in Iraq, and it will be a key factor in the success of Mustafa al-Kadhimi’s government.
It seems difficult for the al-Kadhimi government to please the political parties as well as the people at the same time in the medium and long term, given that the parties that make up the sectarian distribution system have vastly different interests. Other, side factors, such as the Iraq policies of the US and Iran, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the course of the world oil markets, will play minor roles in the al-Kadhimi government’s success.
Anti-government protests, centered on complaints of inadequate public services, unemployment and corruption problems not resolved by successive governments in the post-2003 period, have been organized in the central and southern provinces of the country. They have been primarily a challenge to the post-2003 political order, namely, to the dominant political parties. After approximately eight thousand people were injured and five hundred people died, the Adel Abdul-Mahdi government resigned.
Following his resignation, the political elite failed to establish a new government for six months, following the norm, as it were, of every new government taking six months to establish since 2005. So much so that US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo stated that Iraqi leaders should put aside the sectarian quota system and compromise to establish a new government and rebuild Iraq’s relations with the United States.
The late establishment of the government in Iraq reveals the different interests and long negotiations among the political elite. Because of the vastly different interests in question, which resulted in a failure to satisfy the political parties, Muhammad Tawfiq Allawi could not get a vote of confidence in his attempt to establish a government of technocrats on Abdul-Mahdi’s resignation.
After Allawi, President Barham Salih mandated Adnan al-Zurfi, and not the political parties, to establish the government, but al-Zurfi was not accepted by either the pro-Iranian Shiite political parties or Iran.
On March 30, the Iranian Revolutionary Guards (IRG) Army Commander of Jerusalem Esmail Ghaani came to Baghdad and met with the Shiite political groups. Ghaani asked them not to support al-Zurfi. After this meeting, five political groups close to Iran announced that they would not support al-Zurfi.
As for the US, during the Trump administration, it is concerned with the establishment of a government that will follow a balanced policy in Iraq, since the US policy on Iraq is based on limiting Iran in the region. The US supports prime minister candidates who will keep pro-Iranian Shia militias under government control.
But Iran’s support for Mustafa al-Kadhimi, the president of the Iraqi National Intelligence whose name had been circulating in the backstage, eventually paved the way for his nomination. The green light of the US on the candidacy of al-Kadhimi came with the promise that he would keep all non-state militias under control.
On May 9, after the al-Kadhimi government began its duty after obtaining a vote of confidence, the US renewed the waiver for Iraq to import Iranian electricity for 120 days.
Therefore, al-Kadhimi established the government as a candidate supported by the US and a new prime minister awaiting recognition by Iran.
The al-Kadhimi government is facing a difficult situation due to the overlapping of different and conflicting political interests of the US and Iran and the political parties in Iraq. The oil prices plummeting by half due to the COVID-19 pandemic poses another challenge for al-Kadhimi. In a country where oil revenues constitute 90 percent of the budget, continuing to pay the salaries and pensions will be truly challenging.
It was the oil revenues that maintained the political order in the post-2003 period and somewhat provided stability. In the ethno-sectarian distribution system, in which all political parties control parts of the state resources in proportion to the seats they have won in the elections, political parties have engaged in a fierce competition to develop patronage networks. Public sector employment has become the main tool for establishing these patronage networks due to its dominance in the economy.
Salaries and pensions, which have been on the rise since 2005, totaled almost 50 billion dollars in 2019. It is estimated that they will reach 50 billion in 2020. This huge figure caused major problems during periods when oil prices fell and had to be cut, but it went back to normal when such oil-related crises ended.
This obligatory expenditure by successive governments came at the expense of spending on public infrastructure and building the country’s capital stock, which are the essential foundations of a sustainable economic growth.
Misspending, the state’s weakness in enforcing the rule of law, its stifling bureaucracy, and its central role in the non-oil economy through the control of oil rents (another vehicle for the extension of party patronage networks) have all inhibited the private sector’s growth in formal economy and its ability to generate decent jobs.
Therefore, the private sector of the country continued its development largely in the informal economy. Since the Iraqi economy does not have solid foundations, it remains vulnerable to price fluctuations in the oil market.
The al-Kadhimi government, established on May 7 after getting a vote of confidence from 15 ministers of the 22-minister cabinet, announced that its priorities would be to combat the COVID-19 pandemic and hold those responsible for the death of anti-government protesters into account.
Lt. Gen. Abdul Wahab al-Saadi, whose dismissal from the Counter Terrorism Service in late September 2019 by Adel Abdul-Mahdi had helped to spark the mass protests, was appointed as the head of the Iraqi Counter-Terrorism Service again by Al-Kadhimi. Unlike the previous governments, the Interior and Defense ministries are not vacant in the al-Kadhimi government.
It is an important development that these two ministries are not vacant in a period when Deash is trying to take advantage of the COVID-19 pandemic and increasing its attacks in Iraq.
While the formation process of the al-Kadhimi government continues, the post for the Popular Mobilization Committee (the leadership of the Hashd al-Sha’abi) and the Central Bank of Iraq (CBI) will also be subject to heavy negotiations. The appointments to these posts will be significant given the important place of the Popular Mobilization Committee in the US-Iranian tensions.
The nominee for this post will partially reflect al-Kadhimi’s strategy towards this pressing issue. The issue of who will be appointed as the head of the CBI will also be significant in terms of resolving Iraq’s current financial crisis.
Of all the obstacles that need to be overcome, the ethno-sectarian distribution system remains the biggest one in the al-Kadhimi government’s path toward success. The course world oil prices will take and the development of the COVID-19 pandemic will also be important.
The political elite, faced with the COVID-19 pandemic and an economic crisis, had to accept Mustafa al-Kadhimi as prime minister in order to put an end to the chaos in Iraq. The al-Kadhimi government will have to act within the boundaries drawn for him by the political elite, because he has only a 10-percent share in the selection of his government members, and the political elite has the final say on the remaining 90 percent.
Although he is confronted with the US-Iranian tensions, a highly likely economic crisis due to COVID-19, and sagging oil prices, al-Kadhimi can still be successful if he manages to act like a tightrope walker, keeping the internal and external variables in balance in the medium and long term.
*The writer is a researcher and an M.A. student at the Middle East Institute of Sakarya University
[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]
Today at 7:23 am by Rocky
» Governor of Baghdad: 20 projects will be included during the current year in the city of Nahrawan
Today at 7:20 am by Rocky
» More than $242 million in central bank sales today
Today at 7:17 am by Rocky
» Advisor: Sudanese is determined to close the displacement file
Today at 7:14 am by Rocky
» Al-Sudani: The implementation of the 2023 budget witnessed a success that must be invested in
Today at 7:13 am by Rocky
» The Baghdad Council will decide on the nomination of the committees in the coming days
Today at 7:10 am by Rocky
» Al-Samarrai: The Sunni community is not in favor of removing American forces
Today at 7:08 am by Rocky
» A warning from Al-Rasheed to those wishing to apply for advances and loans
Today at 7:06 am by Rocky
» Azerbaijan expresses its desire to participate in the implementation of joint projects in the oil an
Today at 7:05 am by Rocky
» Fuel cards arouse citizens' discontent
Today at 7:03 am by Rocky
» utube 3/18/24 MM&C Iraqi Dinar-- IQD-- Dinar Update -100% Electronic - Real Effective Exchange Rat
Today at 5:21 am by Rocky
» utube MM&C 3/16/24 0:05 / 18:16 Iraq Federal Court Brings - Strength to Financial - Politic
Today at 5:18 am by Rocky
» MM&C 3/18/24 Sudanese Advisor: Iraq will leave government monetary dealing in mid-2024
Today at 5:17 am by Rocky
» A delegation from the Kurdistan government visits Baghdad to discuss the issue of localization of sa
Today at 5:11 am by Rocky
» Director of the Central Oil Company: We are keen to provide the appropriate investment environment
Today at 5:10 am by Rocky
» The Energy Parliament calls for reporting generators violating government pricing
Today at 5:08 am by Rocky
» A representative reveals the fate of the laws of “previous sessions”
Today at 5:07 am by Rocky
» Politician: Coordination holds the keys to resolving the “Parliament Presidency” conflict
Today at 5:05 am by Rocky
» Al-Sudani: Iraq wants to carry out its peaceful activity in the field of atomic energy
Today at 5:04 am by Rocky
» Including a minister and a parliamentarian... 38 arrest and recruitment orders were issued against t
Today at 5:02 am by Rocky
» Integrity: Citizens’ cooperation resulted in detecting inflation and returning state funds
Today at 5:01 am by Rocky
» Agriculture presents 97 projects to the Ministerial Council for the Economy
Today at 4:59 am by Rocky
» Al-Sudani: We succeeded in implementing the 2023 budget, and we must continue to complete economic p
Today at 4:58 am by Rocky
» Labor adopts new mechanisms to reduce the phenomenon of begging
Today at 4:57 am by Rocky
» Electronically.. directing the collection of fees tomorrow in an Iraqi governorate
Today at 4:56 am by Rocky
» Held in Brussels.. Iraq receives an official invitation to attend the Nuclear Energy Summit
Today at 4:55 am by Rocky
» Kurdistan has been paralyzed. There has been no liquidity in hand for 50 days, and the truth has bee
Today at 4:53 am by Rocky
» The dollar continues to decline against the Iraqi dinar on the stock exchange and exchange offices
Today at 4:52 am by Rocky
» The Minister of Oil reveals the reasons for Shell’s withdrawal from Nebras: It will be divided into
Today at 4:51 am by Rocky
» The Housing Fund advises loan applicants and launches a link for inquiries
Today at 4:50 am by Rocky
» He stressed that the government’s vision is to make one class not exceed 25 students...Government me
Today at 4:48 am by Rocky
» Al-Hakim and Al-Halbousi stress the importance of choosing a speaker for Parliament in accordance wi
Today at 4:47 am by Rocky
» Iron and Steel Company: Iraq is on the verge of a major industrial revolution
Today at 4:46 am by Rocky
» Economists: Citizens still prefer cash transactions over electronic transactions
Today at 4:45 am by Rocky
» The compass of Iraq's foreign policy in a world of turbulent polarization
Today at 4:43 am by Rocky
» Parliamentary Finance: The federal budget is in the corridors of the Council of Ministers, and there
Today at 4:42 am by Rocky
» Integrity calls on citizens to report the inflation of funds in the sector of the Ministry of Labor
Today at 4:40 am by Rocky
» Al-Sudani directs the launch of initiatives for young businessmen and investors
Today at 4:38 am by Rocky
» Representative agriculture emphasizes taking supportive measures for the local product
Today at 4:37 am by Rocky
» An economist calls on the government to support and stimulate the private sector
Today at 4:36 am by Rocky
» Al-Ittihad: Employees and retirees in Kurdistan paid the price of political differences with Baghdad
Today at 4:34 am by Rocky
» Al-Samarrai and Al-Hakim discuss the importance of achieving political and constitutional entitlemen
Today at 4:32 am by Rocky
» Only 23 million dunums. Iraq exploits approximately 50% of its arable land
Today at 4:30 am by Rocky
» Türkiye considers it a political issue.. Where have the negotiations reached regarding Iraq’s water
Today at 4:29 am by Rocky
» Sudanese receives an invitation to attend the Nuclear Energy Summit in Brussels - Urgent
Today at 4:27 am by Rocky
» Central Bank sales exceed $240 million today
Yesterday at 6:52 am by Rocky
» Parliamentary Finance calls on the government to expedite sending the 2024 budget to Parliament
Yesterday at 6:47 am by Rocky
» ‘We’re So Sick of It’: Northern Border Crisis Gets Worse
Yesterday at 6:35 am by Bama Diva
» A representative holds Kurdistan responsible for the faltering legislation of the oil and gas law
Yesterday at 5:27 am by Rocky
» Warnings of the danger of the increase in foreign labor in Iraq
Yesterday at 5:26 am by Rocky
» Iraq's oil exports to America decreased within a week
Yesterday at 5:25 am by Rocky
» Al-Sudani chairs an “important” meeting to form the Kirkuk government
Yesterday at 5:23 am by Rocky
» Investment confirms the adoption of a new method in new residential cities and explains its details
Yesterday at 5:21 am by Rocky
» For the first time in 2024.. exchange rates fall to the threshold of 149 thousand in Baghdad
Yesterday at 5:19 am by Rocky
» Including gold.. An increase in exports of 3 Turkish products to Iraq during 2024
Yesterday at 5:18 am by Rocky
» A detailed integrity report regarding the Housing Fund... called for this matter
Yesterday at 5:17 am by Rocky
» Resources count the number of trespassers in Baghdad.. What about restaurants?
Yesterday at 5:16 am by Rocky
» At a cost of approximately two billion dinars... determining the completion rates achieved in the Ma
Yesterday at 5:15 am by Rocky
» Parliament awaits the “Cabinet of Ministers” law
Yesterday at 5:14 am by Rocky
» Provincial councils return after an absence with a heavy legacy
Yesterday at 5:13 am by Rocky
» Iraq is the axis and meeting point of East and West
Yesterday at 5:11 am by Rocky
» One million beneficiaries of health insurance early next May
Yesterday at 5:10 am by Rocky
» Parliamentary Finance: Delaying the budget had a negative impact on the performance of the ministrie
Yesterday at 5:09 am by Rocky
» The chaos of urban expansion threatens the agricultural character of Diwaniyah
Yesterday at 5:08 am by Rocky
» A project to plant Japanese trees in Erbil
Yesterday at 5:07 am by Rocky
» A team to prepare the national strategy for national security in Kirkuk
Yesterday at 5:06 am by Rocky
» Next Tuesday...concluding a contract to expand the basic design of the city of Mosul
Yesterday at 5:04 am by Rocky
» A festival to reduce food prices in Mosul
Yesterday at 5:03 am by Rocky
» Technical committees between Baghdad and Erbil to resume oil exports through Türkiye
Yesterday at 5:02 am by Rocky
» A model of economic diversification
Yesterday at 5:01 am by Rocky
» Variation in the extent to which Iraq was affected by the decision to reduce the credit rating of {T
Yesterday at 5:00 am by Rocky
» Al-Sudani: Iraq has made a commitment to receive the entire security file from the Ministry of Inter
Yesterday at 4:58 am by Rocky
» The President of the Republic stresses the important role of Mr. Abdul Aziz Al-Hakim in the first st
Yesterday at 4:56 am by Rocky
» The Iraqi Center for Combating Rumors warns against social media celebrities misleading their follow
Yesterday at 4:54 am by Rocky
» Integrity investigates the work of the Housing Fund and indicates debts worth 56 billion dinars
Yesterday at 4:53 am by Rocky
» Agricultural associations in Karbala welcome the provincial council’s decision to prevent the fragme
Yesterday at 4:52 am by Rocky
» Free education lecturers demand that they be given job opportunities and contracts in Kirkuk
Yesterday at 4:51 am by Rocky
» The Digital Media Center calls for not browsing links published on a government page
Yesterday at 4:50 am by Rocky
» The President of the Republic confirms the strength of relations between Iraq and Italy
Yesterday at 4:48 am by Rocky
» A decline in Iraq's oil exports to America during the past week
Yesterday at 4:47 am by Rocky
» Economic researcher for / NINA /: Iraqi youth are qualified for the labor market and relying on them
Yesterday at 4:46 am by Rocky
» The Minister of Planning is following up on the Statistics Authority’s preparations to conduct the g
Yesterday at 4:45 am by Rocky
» 5 days after sending the money and the Kurdistan government has not paid the salaries...a political
Yesterday at 4:44 am by Rocky
» A political reading about Sudanese political concern.. Amending the election law is one of the attem
Yesterday at 4:42 am by Rocky
» Al-Sudani to the Baghdad government: Pay attention to the outskirts of the capital, and drainage mus
Yesterday at 4:41 am by Rocky
» The Iraqi dinar recovers against the dollar in local markets
Yesterday at 4:39 am by Rocky
» Investment provides a summary of Bismaya units... and the new cities have “fixed prices” for the fir
Yesterday at 4:38 am by Rocky
» “Hidden commissions” on electronic fuel cards, contrary to what is advertised.. To whom does 100 mil
Yesterday at 4:37 am by Rocky
» Al-Hasnawi: The government is continuing to accelerate the completion and opening of lagging health
Yesterday at 4:36 am by Rocky
» Oil: The gasoline import file will be closed early next year
Yesterday at 4:35 am by Rocky
» “My account or your account”... a new problem behind the delay in the salaries of the region’s emplo
Yesterday at 4:34 am by Rocky
» Al-Sudani: Iraq is about to host important events and conferences
Yesterday at 4:33 am by Rocky
» In Erdogan's visit to Iraq...the path of development in exchange for water
Yesterday at 4:33 am by Rocky
» An American report on Washington’s seriousness in withdrawing from Iraq: Biden does not want to lose
Yesterday at 4:30 am by Rocky
» The organization is banned in Iraq.. Baghdad decides the fate of the Workers’ Party after 40 years o
Yesterday at 4:29 am by Rocky
» The rain exposes the poor quality of service projects and calls for the dismissal of officials and h
Yesterday at 4:28 am by Rocky
» Politician: Ankara needs Baghdad economically, and the path of development is Iraq’s trump card
Yesterday at 4:26 am by Rocky
» Economic calls to adopt a new philosophy for implementing strategic projects
Yesterday at 4:24 am by Rocky
» Al-Maliki: My alliance with Al-Sadr is possible, and the movement’s distance from it is an unhealthy
Yesterday at 4:23 am by Rocky