Studies Center: The upcoming elections enter new faces, but they do not change the rules

[size=52][size=45]Translated by Hamid Ahmed[/size][/size]

[size=45]Amid the many crises facing Iraq, reforming the political system and restoring confidence, rule of law and accountability in the Iraqi state is perhaps the most important goal. The country witnessed a widespread popular protest movement in the capital and the rest of the provinces, against the backdrop of a weak economy, corruption and mismanagement. There is widespread discontent at a time when the elite political class is trying to curb popular anger through tepid reforms that are futile.[/size]
[size=45]A report by the Middle East Center for Studies by the researcher Sajjad Jiyad, issued by the London School of Economic and Political Sciences (LSE), indicates that the protests and their consequences are being used by parties to weaken their opponents through politicized reforms.[/size]
[size=45]An essential part of the working paper of the current government headed by Mustafa Al-Kazemi was to push for early elections. This goal and the accompanying ratification of a new election law in November 2020 was tantamount to lukewarm submission to the protesters' demands, as the parties agreed to make an amendment to the election law changing the formula from coalitions elected across 18 electoral districts in the governorates to candidates and parties distributed over 83 electoral districts. This means that voters will choose a member of parliament from their residential areas rather than choosing a political alliance or a candidate at the governorate level.[/size]
[size=45]However, these changes are unlikely to have a negative impact on the larger parties that can manipulate votes across governorates. Parties that are well represented locally and have extensive networks will benefit from dividing governorates into electoral districts, and their benefits will be greater when they have strong candidates in rural areas.[/size]
[size=45]On the other hand, the changes made to the law will not remove the obstacles for new parties and new politicians to enter. As there has been no significant amendment to the political parties law that favors the status quo, which makes it difficult to form new parties that compete with the existing parties, and they will not have sources of funding as well as those parties.[/size]
[size=45]After the election law was amended in November 2020, there were still major steps to be taken. The first was in passing the law on funding the commission, and the second was either in amending the Federal Supreme Court Act or legislating a new law.[/size]
[size=45]By January 2021, it became very clear that it was not possible to hold elections in June for technical reasons, and that is why the commission proposed to the government a new date for the elections, which is October 16, 2021. The government accepted the commission’s request and amended the date to October 10, 2021.[/size]
[size=45]There are two decisive factors as to whether the elections will be possible in October 2021. The first factor is technical, and it is the concern that the Electoral Commission will not be ready for the elections in time. The report indicated that a current official in the commission agrees that it is unlikely that the technical preparations for the elections will be completed on time, suggesting that April 2022 be a more realistic date.[/size]
[size=45]The second factor is political, as while the parties openly support early elections, they are, in fact, procrastinating in their efforts to hold these elections as members of Parliament hope to complete its entire legislative session, because early elections require Parliament to dissolve itself and he will not do so until the preparations are completed. Technical.[/size]
[size=45]The report indicated that Iraq is currently witnessing an escalation in the number of cases of Coronavirus disease, and with dilapidated health infrastructure and lack of interest in public health controls, the country is witnessing the beginning of a new wave. This may be an underlying factor pushing back the election date.[/size]
[size=45]Regarding the mobilization of the protest movement for the elections and the formation of new parties from it, the report indicated that some of the participants in the protests met during the previous months with government officials, hoping to shed more light on their demands while maintaining a line of communication to prevent further clashes. Some of the protest activists and coordinators were chosen by parties, and they are now part of their electoral campaign, either under the names of a new party or existing names. Such trends have been met with condemnation by other protesters and activists who find no way to achieve reforms within the current power structure.[/size]
[size=45]Other protest leaders have independently formed new parties with the hope that they will represent the young generation unconvinced of the country's current political system.[/size]
[size=45]Not all the new parties are another facet of the existing parties, or they came from the protest movement. Whereas, the Election Commission will eventually complete the registration of more than 300 parties that will participate in the upcoming election campaign.[/size]
[size=45]According to the head of a current political party with more than 20 members of parliament, the entry of Faces into the political process is a positive development, even if some of these faces joined large parties from the elite, as this will ultimately lead to a generational change.[/size]
[size=45]A prominent politician in the Al-Fatah coalition believes that the protest parties will not win seats, but that over time they will become a force that can attract votes in the way the current parties can do so.[/size]
[size=45]The report indicates that the new parties will strive to bring about a change to the current situation, while the parties of the current elite will do everything they can to prevent any change. Part of this opposite approach is through solicitation, intimidation, or legal political action. Building support for new parties is one of the most difficult challenges these parties face.[/size]
[size=45]The current situation suggests that there will be no absolute winner in the next elections. This is because there is not a single party that wins broad support in all countries, or is capable of winning more than 100 seats. As a result, rival parties will need to form a coalition government, a process that could take several months. In all likelihood, this will lead to a poorly performing government that fails to deal effectively with many of the crises facing the country. However, if the election results force the acceptance of the need for real reforms and give the state a chance to recover from corruption and poor performance, this may lead to a phase of relative stability.[/size]
[size=45]The ballot boxes will reveal more correct expectations of what the election results will look like, but there is a safe assumption that there will be no radical change from the previous elections. The ruling parties will seek to compete and undermine one another without losing their adherence to the system, and within this context, the upcoming parliamentary elections in Iraq are unlikely to change the rules of the game.[/size]
[size=45]For: The Middle East Center for Studies[/size]
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