[size=45][size=41]“To avoid painful consequences”: an American institute warns Baghdad and Erbil about the fate of oil[/size]
4 hours ago
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4 hours ago
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The American “Middle East Institute” warned that the next few decades will be decisive for Iraq and the Kurdistan Regional Government, as the energy sector is reformulated in light of the changes taking place globally, which will leave repercussions and pose challenges for Iraq, especially if the country fails to take the necessary radical steps to adapt to Energy transition, calling for strengthening coordination between Baghdad and Erbil.
Among the patterns of changes taking place globally, the American report referred to the ongoing work to promote sustainable development and achieve the goals of the Paris climate agreement, and related efforts in areas such as renewable energy, climate change and environmental protection, which will affect everything from employment and work patterns to governance. .
The report explained; That in the year 2035, the oil-consuming countries, including the United States and countries throughout Europe, will begin to reduce their dependence on fossil fuels in order to reduce harmful emissions, and therefore it is estimated that demand will decrease in the year 2050 to about 70%. From what it is now, while the population of Iraq will reach 75 million, up from about 42 million at present.
Therefore, the report says; There is a crisis looming on the horizon, as Iraq's economy still relies heavily on oil revenues, which represent about 94.4% of its total revenues, adding also that Iraq burns gas associated with oil production, which is estimated to cost $2.5 billion annually from lost revenues, which is A process that significantly contributes to the aggravation of climate problems, environmental pollution and diseases.
The US report called on Baghdad and Erbil to "take a number of targeted steps and enhance the level of coordination between them" to work seriously to deal with these issues.
The report was considered; There is a need to develop better data, as one of the biggest problems that impedes the governance of the energy sector is the lack of available, accurate and properly classified data, adding that although the energy sector is the main financier of all government institutions and other forms of public expenditures, the nature of work in This sector affected by the financial situation of the government and the general approach.
He pointed out that the government of Prime Minister Mohamed Shia Al-Sudani has expanded government spending by increasing the number of jobs in the public sector and beneficiaries of social welfare, adding that facilitating the work of young graduates in the energy sector is necessary and will contribute to ensuring the absorption of new technologies and applications and their permanent implementation in the country. production processes.
The report also called for the creation of an index of youth employment in the energy labor market, explaining that Iraq needs to create this innovative indicator to be able to provide detailed information about the number, type and status of workers in the energy labor market. He explained that the two governments in Baghdad and Erbil must work together on this issue in view of the importance of the energy sector, especially renewable energy and energy transition measures.
He pointed out that this is necessary in order to improve governance in the sector and help decision makers to make better choices.
The report urged facilitating the transfer of STEM graduates to the energy sector, as they face difficulties in accessing the energy labor market, which underscores the need to bridge the gap between educational institutions and the energy sector.
The report considered that facilitating the transition of graduates to work in the sector and start businesses is a must. And there is a need to amend laws and adopt new policies to strengthen links between graduates and the energy labor market, stressing the importance of providing vocational training for young people, especially in the field of renewable energy sources, as, for example, installing renewable energy stations requires a set of technical skills, in addition to knowledge. Mathematics and software, which in turn requires the existence of vocational training centers that can provide the necessary training as well as entities that can provide financing for the project.
The report also called for expanding financing for clean energy projects, recalling that the Central Bank launched, in January 2022, a financing initiative with a capital of $685 million with the aim of encouraging renewable energy projects, stressing that these initiatives need to consider a number of different factors, including Including the nature of beneficiaries and projects, and the benefits they provide to young people, including by gender, geography and type of work.
He considered it also important to involve state-owned and private banks in financing clean energy projects and to provide financing facilities for young people and graduates of science, technology, engineering and mathematics.
The report also called for addressing the obstacles to employment for women, noting that women make up half the population in Iraq and the Kurdistan Region, and their number is about 21 million out of a total of 42 million people, yet only 1.5 million women are involved in the labor market in the public and private sectors. .
He pointed out that Iraqi law also limits women's ability to work in this sector, noting that Labor Law No. 37 of 2015 in federal Iraq and Law No. 71 of 1987 in the Kurdistan Region prohibit women from working in difficult conditions or at night, which are legislations that need to be amended. Modify or cancel.
The report concluded by saying that the two governments in Baghdad and Erbil need to work together to develop the necessary policies, legislation and capabilities to create an appropriate ecosystem to promote business growth in non-traditional energy sectors. The report stressed that better governance will help create opportunities for sustainable development, including business sustainability, and facilitate youth entry into the labor market.
However, the report warned that if these governments are unable to keep pace with global developments in this regard, the Iraqi economy may face great risks in the future, which limits opportunities for economic diversification and enhances dependence on unproductive government jobs and thus increases the burden on government spending. The report concluded by warning that "the consequences will be painful, especially for young people, and could lead to displacement, migration, conflict and social unrest, which could endanger society as a whole."
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