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American Institute warns of signs of the birth of the Sunni insurgency in Iraq after the defeat of Daesh
translation: Hamid Ahmed
Warned the Institute of the Study of War (ISW) in the analytical study of him, there are early signs indicate the possibility of the outbreak of a Sunni insurgency after the end of regulation Daesh in Iraq and al - Qaeda is trying to gain him attract supporters in the country. The study highlights the indicators to start the formation of rebellions and disobedience after Daesh and that al - Qaeda is present in Iraq.
The Institute for the Study of War, had forecast in November 30 2016 , the probability confront Iraq to Sunni insurgency renewed event of the termination of military operations for the presence of the organization Daesh in Mosul, as the international coalition led by the United States was focused on the campaign only to remove the organization Daesh and not the circumstances that led to the originally it arises, and that the political situation will allow for the insurgency to take root in the
country.
Totals for the rebellion that preceded the emergence of Daesh organization is still active even after an attempt to Daesh reined in . These groups are trying to circulate aim to revive the resistance movement against the Iraqi state. It is too early to premature assessment whether gonna these insurgency groups under one national umbrella, and these totals:
- Army Men Naqshbandi: a group of Baathist renewed, announced in October 2016 that it attacked themilitants organizing Daesh in Mosul and called for attacks more. In December 2016 , condemned political participation in Iraq, a topic related to reality , especially with regard to elections , provincial councils and national elections likely to be held in April 2018.
- twenty Revolution Brigades, a group of Baathist renewed again, the monthly magazine of the 2017 edition focused the concern for the status of the resistance movements in Iraq , these resistors designed to reduce Iranian influence in Iraq and the region in particular. Have ever been on the movement far more than a decade , a monthly magazine published this, and despite the dominance of the organization Daesh they confirm their survival as a group is active, but the goals are distinct from Daesh targets which will be followed once the organization in Iraq.
According to a security source in Kirkuk, who asked not to be named, there are Baathists leaders terrace Daesh cells around Kirkuk and Hawija province , once a stronghold of Baathists after the fall of Saddam Hussein and again in 2013. If true , they registered these leaders Baathists to keep these capacities and networks even after the defeat Bdaash which will give them the resources to form a rebel movement.
These groups may be able to work in isolation from Daesh case of loss of control. For example, groups such as the Army Men Naqshbandi likely to find opportunities in the re - emergence of the critical period following the loss of the organization Daesh for control of the city and by the Iraqi government to simplify the full control of
them. Indicators on the re - emergence of the army men Naqshbandi group in Mosul will include the attacks bear the hallmarks of the group such as the assassinations of members of al - Daesh and members of the Iraqi security forces across gunmen in speeding cars.
On the other hand , and despite losing in other areas in the country, the organization continuously Daesh activism and its capabilities in the implementation of horrific attacks in Iraq and will continue that way for months. Daesh organization has launched a series of deadly attacks in Baghdad on the eve of New Year celebrations and accept its ability to launch attacks in different parts of Iraq , including Kirkuk, Tikrit and Samarra , and since the start of liberalization of Mosul operations in October 2016.
On the other hand, the organization Daesh may begin modifying the style of launching attacks in Iraq , following its transformation from a terrorist force controlling the streets in a terrorist war organization. This shift will make it difficult to determine the identity of the bomber , especially after the erosion of quality attacks bearing his mark or a change in the methods of attack.
A recent unfamiliar attacks have taken place in several areas of Baghdad , during which the bombing of a series of explosive charges clustered in one neighborhood , you need to assess whether the organization Daesh or other groups is the organization began to implement in Iraq , an indicator of the Daesh began to change his style or loss of abilities.
The bombing of a series of explosive charges occurred in the Shula district of December 31 2016 , the organization has not issued any statement Daesh responsibility for the attack. And roses increasing reports of armed groups riding motorcycles between Tikrit and the mountains of Hamrin in Diyala may be evidence of the emergence of the power of the Sunni insurgency , where these methods were common in Diyala during the year 2006.
While security officials attributed, did not mention their names, these attacks Daesh maybe not these officials want to blame the attacks on other rebel groups. Daesh organization had used his appearance at the beginning of motorcycles to carry out quality attacks.
Institute for the Study of War also predicted, in November 2016, to try to organize the formation of al - Qaida or fueling insurgent groups in Iraq. The al - Qaida leader Ayman al - Zawahiri has called on Iraqi Sunnis in August 2016 for the resumption of a long guerrilla war and urged al - Qaeda in Syria to support the process in
Iraq.
There is early evidence that al Qaeda present in Iraq, has maintained relations and links with other rebel groups.
- At December 31 dropped by local police in Samarra , arrested two militants confessed Bartbathma to al -Qaeda, but on the other hand is said that Shiite security agents often try to force recognition of Sunni detainees belonging to terrorist groups. And that most of the arrests are the result of sectarian violations and not actual crimes. And often refer reports of forced confessions that the person arrested has ties to al Daesh rather than the rule, and that is the recognition of the former defendants seems reasonable to confirm this evidence.
- In an earlier assessment of the Institute of War Studies predicted that enters the al - Qaida back into theIraqi theater from Syria across the Euphrates River basin. The re - appearance in Samarra may suggest that al - Qaeda had begun to revive dormant cells in Iraq as well as to send his envoys from Syria. The second hand suggests that al Qaeda puts his priorities in targeting Shiites in Iraq , such as the cities with the holy shrines to have.
On the other hand, the regional states may of fomenting the insurgency in Iraq by allowing Sunni and assigning armed groups in the country.
- According to an official statement in the Central Command of US forces in December 2016, the Kingdom ofSaudi Arabia is supplying arms shipments to the Sunni tribes in Anbar , in anticipation of which the occurrence of a settling of accounts with the units of the popular Shiite crowd.
- The attribution of Turkey to al Qaeda and other Sunni opposition groups in the region, especially in Syria , it may allow or facilitate the direct return of al - Qaeda to Iraq, possibly via the connector.
According to the Institute of the Study of War that he will resort to re - evaluate some of the previous attacks attributed to al Daesh to ascertain whether he was supposed to be attributed to other rebel groups.
It is possible that al - Qaeda arise from itself or through cooperation with other groups in the country. Al Qaeda may do so in Iraq extended between 2004 and 2006 and in Syria for the period from 2011 until now. Al - Qaeda has been trying to unite the oppressed insurgent groups in Iraq , as it did in 2006 under the name of "Islamic State of Iraq."
The current elements of the insurgency in Iraq may be Mtvarqh intellectually and geographically in a manner not enable them to create a national movement to track the organization Daesh. The attempt to achieve it after the fall of Fallujah , however Daesh in 2014 had failed the same way. This critical aspect of the base may increase cooperation to establish a wing in Iraq faster than Daesh achieved in 2013 or Al - Qaeda in Iraq in 2004.
Al - Qaeda 's efforts to rebuild their networks in Iraq could be achieved at a local level. It is expected the Institute of War Studies interfere Qaida domestic policy , especially with the approach of the provincial assemblies and parliament elections in the coming 2018. Has been trying to launch a campaign of assassinations against politicians , local or tribal leaders to undermine the electoral process or style imaginable on it is not effective to address the grievances of the people.
It is likely that al - Qaeda resort and Sunni insurgents to carry out attacks against rallies campaigning or polling stations.
Developments in the Sunni tribal relations and alliances changes may also indicate that al - Qaeda will use it to strengthen its ties to the clan and expertise in order to revive their networks and strengthen its position.
The clan is trying to incite the other to create conflicts between them, as it had done in Qaim in 2007, or may exploit internal conflicts for the same clan as the rivalry that now exists within the Jabour tribe in northern Iraq in order to benefit.
Institute for the Study of War select the names of certain areas where al - Qaida may arise from the new ownership of the task of the networks since 2007 and that these areas may generate Sunni rebel groups even without the base because of prejudice and sectarian violence that faced children. One of these areas of Diyala province, especially along the Hamrin mountain range and east of Khanaqin area, including the Qara Tepe and Muqdadiyah and near Baquba. As well as in the Euphrates River Basin and around Ramadi, Fallujah and Qaim, where rebel groups, especially al - Qaida that can exploit tribal networks and waves of displaced people. In Zab triangle which also includes Hawija and Sharqat and northern Salahuddin.
Ongoing campaign against al Daesh in Iraq , which focused solely on defeating Daesh determination and ability to achieve its goal of fighting to undermine the terrorist group, but on the other hand exacerbate instability and
political.
Abadi faces the risk of loss of office before the end of military operations against al - Daesh campaign was forced to make concessions
to the militia are often opposed to any US interests in order to ensure that it remains in office. Abadi was not able, for example , to prevent the Iranian - backed militias of the resumption of military operations near
Tal Afar.
These concessions are likely to exacerbate sectarian and ethnic tensions pleasing to the interests of the Iranian - backed Sunni Arab groups account. It is incumbent upon the United States to guarantee the provision of support needed by Prime Minister Haider al - Abadi to maintain his position without being subject to the interests of Iran , which could undermine recent successes against al Daesh.
And it requires the United States now that expansion immediately of its campaign to organize anti Daesh in Iraq and Syria to contain al - Qaeda and its lackeys. The United States also said moving actively through political, economic, diplomatic and military means to remove political conditions that help enable al - Qaida and Daesh Daesh It is followed by the formation of kegs and recruitment centers.
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American Institute warns of signs of the birth of the Sunni insurgency in Iraq after the defeat of Daesh
translation: Hamid Ahmed
it did not rule out that the insurgency has the expected support governments Saudi Arabia and Turkey
Warned the Institute of the Study of War (ISW) in the analytical study of him, there are early signs indicate the possibility of the outbreak of a Sunni insurgency after the end of regulation Daesh in Iraq and al - Qaeda is trying to gain him attract supporters in the country. The study highlights the indicators to start the formation of rebellions and disobedience after Daesh and that al - Qaeda is present in Iraq.
The Institute for the Study of War, had forecast in November 30 2016 , the probability confront Iraq to Sunni insurgency renewed event of the termination of military operations for the presence of the organization Daesh in Mosul, as the international coalition led by the United States was focused on the campaign only to remove the organization Daesh and not the circumstances that led to the originally it arises, and that the political situation will allow for the insurgency to take root in the
country.
Totals for the rebellion that preceded the emergence of Daesh organization is still active even after an attempt to Daesh reined in . These groups are trying to circulate aim to revive the resistance movement against the Iraqi state. It is too early to premature assessment whether gonna these insurgency groups under one national umbrella, and these totals:
- Army Men Naqshbandi: a group of Baathist renewed, announced in October 2016 that it attacked themilitants organizing Daesh in Mosul and called for attacks more. In December 2016 , condemned political participation in Iraq, a topic related to reality , especially with regard to elections , provincial councils and national elections likely to be held in April 2018.
- twenty Revolution Brigades, a group of Baathist renewed again, the monthly magazine of the 2017 edition focused the concern for the status of the resistance movements in Iraq , these resistors designed to reduce Iranian influence in Iraq and the region in particular. Have ever been on the movement far more than a decade , a monthly magazine published this, and despite the dominance of the organization Daesh they confirm their survival as a group is active, but the goals are distinct from Daesh targets which will be followed once the organization in Iraq.
According to a security source in Kirkuk, who asked not to be named, there are Baathists leaders terrace Daesh cells around Kirkuk and Hawija province , once a stronghold of Baathists after the fall of Saddam Hussein and again in 2013. If true , they registered these leaders Baathists to keep these capacities and networks even after the defeat Bdaash which will give them the resources to form a rebel movement.
These groups may be able to work in isolation from Daesh case of loss of control. For example, groups such as the Army Men Naqshbandi likely to find opportunities in the re - emergence of the critical period following the loss of the organization Daesh for control of the city and by the Iraqi government to simplify the full control of
them. Indicators on the re - emergence of the army men Naqshbandi group in Mosul will include the attacks bear the hallmarks of the group such as the assassinations of members of al - Daesh and members of the Iraqi security forces across gunmen in speeding cars.
On the other hand , and despite losing in other areas in the country, the organization continuously Daesh activism and its capabilities in the implementation of horrific attacks in Iraq and will continue that way for months. Daesh organization has launched a series of deadly attacks in Baghdad on the eve of New Year celebrations and accept its ability to launch attacks in different parts of Iraq , including Kirkuk, Tikrit and Samarra , and since the start of liberalization of Mosul operations in October 2016.
On the other hand, the organization Daesh may begin modifying the style of launching attacks in Iraq , following its transformation from a terrorist force controlling the streets in a terrorist war organization. This shift will make it difficult to determine the identity of the bomber , especially after the erosion of quality attacks bearing his mark or a change in the methods of attack.
A recent unfamiliar attacks have taken place in several areas of Baghdad , during which the bombing of a series of explosive charges clustered in one neighborhood , you need to assess whether the organization Daesh or other groups is the organization began to implement in Iraq , an indicator of the Daesh began to change his style or loss of abilities.
The bombing of a series of explosive charges occurred in the Shula district of December 31 2016 , the organization has not issued any statement Daesh responsibility for the attack. And roses increasing reports of armed groups riding motorcycles between Tikrit and the mountains of Hamrin in Diyala may be evidence of the emergence of the power of the Sunni insurgency , where these methods were common in Diyala during the year 2006.
While security officials attributed, did not mention their names, these attacks Daesh maybe not these officials want to blame the attacks on other rebel groups. Daesh organization had used his appearance at the beginning of motorcycles to carry out quality attacks.
Institute for the Study of War also predicted, in November 2016, to try to organize the formation of al - Qaida or fueling insurgent groups in Iraq. The al - Qaida leader Ayman al - Zawahiri has called on Iraqi Sunnis in August 2016 for the resumption of a long guerrilla war and urged al - Qaeda in Syria to support the process in
Iraq.
There is early evidence that al Qaeda present in Iraq, has maintained relations and links with other rebel groups.
- At December 31 dropped by local police in Samarra , arrested two militants confessed Bartbathma to al -Qaeda, but on the other hand is said that Shiite security agents often try to force recognition of Sunni detainees belonging to terrorist groups. And that most of the arrests are the result of sectarian violations and not actual crimes. And often refer reports of forced confessions that the person arrested has ties to al Daesh rather than the rule, and that is the recognition of the former defendants seems reasonable to confirm this evidence.
- In an earlier assessment of the Institute of War Studies predicted that enters the al - Qaida back into theIraqi theater from Syria across the Euphrates River basin. The re - appearance in Samarra may suggest that al - Qaeda had begun to revive dormant cells in Iraq as well as to send his envoys from Syria. The second hand suggests that al Qaeda puts his priorities in targeting Shiites in Iraq , such as the cities with the holy shrines to have.
On the other hand, the regional states may of fomenting the insurgency in Iraq by allowing Sunni and assigning armed groups in the country.
- According to an official statement in the Central Command of US forces in December 2016, the Kingdom ofSaudi Arabia is supplying arms shipments to the Sunni tribes in Anbar , in anticipation of which the occurrence of a settling of accounts with the units of the popular Shiite crowd.
- The attribution of Turkey to al Qaeda and other Sunni opposition groups in the region, especially in Syria , it may allow or facilitate the direct return of al - Qaeda to Iraq, possibly via the connector.
According to the Institute of the Study of War that he will resort to re - evaluate some of the previous attacks attributed to al Daesh to ascertain whether he was supposed to be attributed to other rebel groups.
It is possible that al - Qaeda arise from itself or through cooperation with other groups in the country. Al Qaeda may do so in Iraq extended between 2004 and 2006 and in Syria for the period from 2011 until now. Al - Qaeda has been trying to unite the oppressed insurgent groups in Iraq , as it did in 2006 under the name of "Islamic State of Iraq."
The current elements of the insurgency in Iraq may be Mtvarqh intellectually and geographically in a manner not enable them to create a national movement to track the organization Daesh. The attempt to achieve it after the fall of Fallujah , however Daesh in 2014 had failed the same way. This critical aspect of the base may increase cooperation to establish a wing in Iraq faster than Daesh achieved in 2013 or Al - Qaeda in Iraq in 2004.
Al - Qaeda 's efforts to rebuild their networks in Iraq could be achieved at a local level. It is expected the Institute of War Studies interfere Qaida domestic policy , especially with the approach of the provincial assemblies and parliament elections in the coming 2018. Has been trying to launch a campaign of assassinations against politicians , local or tribal leaders to undermine the electoral process or style imaginable on it is not effective to address the grievances of the people.
It is likely that al - Qaeda resort and Sunni insurgents to carry out attacks against rallies campaigning or polling stations.
Developments in the Sunni tribal relations and alliances changes may also indicate that al - Qaeda will use it to strengthen its ties to the clan and expertise in order to revive their networks and strengthen its position.
The clan is trying to incite the other to create conflicts between them, as it had done in Qaim in 2007, or may exploit internal conflicts for the same clan as the rivalry that now exists within the Jabour tribe in northern Iraq in order to benefit.
Institute for the Study of War select the names of certain areas where al - Qaida may arise from the new ownership of the task of the networks since 2007 and that these areas may generate Sunni rebel groups even without the base because of prejudice and sectarian violence that faced children. One of these areas of Diyala province, especially along the Hamrin mountain range and east of Khanaqin area, including the Qara Tepe and Muqdadiyah and near Baquba. As well as in the Euphrates River Basin and around Ramadi, Fallujah and Qaim, where rebel groups, especially al - Qaida that can exploit tribal networks and waves of displaced people. In Zab triangle which also includes Hawija and Sharqat and northern Salahuddin.
Ongoing campaign against al Daesh in Iraq , which focused solely on defeating Daesh determination and ability to achieve its goal of fighting to undermine the terrorist group, but on the other hand exacerbate instability and
political.
Abadi faces the risk of loss of office before the end of military operations against al - Daesh campaign was forced to make concessions
to the militia are often opposed to any US interests in order to ensure that it remains in office. Abadi was not able, for example , to prevent the Iranian - backed militias of the resumption of military operations near
Tal Afar.
These concessions are likely to exacerbate sectarian and ethnic tensions pleasing to the interests of the Iranian - backed Sunni Arab groups account. It is incumbent upon the United States to guarantee the provision of support needed by Prime Minister Haider al - Abadi to maintain his position without being subject to the interests of Iran , which could undermine recent successes against al Daesh.
And it requires the United States now that expansion immediately of its campaign to organize anti Daesh in Iraq and Syria to contain al - Qaeda and its lackeys. The United States also said moving actively through political, economic, diplomatic and military means to remove political conditions that help enable al - Qaida and Daesh Daesh It is followed by the formation of kegs and recruitment centers.
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