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Study: Elections Law in Iraq.. Prospects for an Expected Crisis
[ltr]2023.05.03 - 12:55[/ltr]
[ltr]2023.05.03 - 12:55[/ltr]
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Baghdad - Nas
A study shed light on the return to adopting the "Saint Lego" system in the upcoming elections in Iraq, while indicating that the matter will narrow the space for emerging parties and independents.
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The study presented by the head of the Center for Political Thinking, Ihsan Al-Shammari, which was published in the “Trends Center for Research and Consultation,” followed by “NAS” (May 3, 2023), said that “the return to St. The traditional forces as a result of their losses after the events of 2019 that overthrew the government of Adel Abdul-Mahdi, and passing it is a response to the electoral law of 2020 with multiple constituencies, which made the political leaders lose their symbolism and their authority over the representatives and their political blocs.
And she added, "The application of the Saint-Lego formula will narrow the space for emerging parties and independents, as these will face difficulty in winning, because they do not have political money, nor state institutions that are employed, as was the case in the majority of the previous electoral campaigns for the past sessions, which may lead to an explosion of conditions." again in Iraq.
The following is the text of the study:
The electoral laws and the voting mechanisms they contain are an indication of the level of democratic accumulation of any political system, the level of maturity of the political class and parties, and the extent to which they respond to the nature of the advanced awareness of the voter or the people in choosing who represents them in the legislative and executive power.
In this study, we review the amendment of the election law approved by the Iraqi Parliament as an indication of a remarkable decline in the development of formulas and tools for participation in political life. Going into this study necessitates returning to reveal the level of development of laws and their amendments, from the beginning of the constitutional regularity in the year 2005, and standing on the phased transition to the multi-circuit law, and it was one of the reasons for returning to the current version, which is idiomatically known as the “St. Lego” law.
This study will discuss four main points, namely: the development of electoral laws in Iraq since 2005, the multiple constituencies as a temporary response, the crises perpetuated by the application of the St. Lego law in Iraq, and finally, the expected repercussions of the adoption of the new election law.
First: Evolution of Electoral Laws:
One, and that the number of members of the National Assembly is 275, as approved by the Iraqi State Administration Law in Article (31) thereof, and that the election is by direct, secret universal ballot, which gave Iraqi women the right to vote and to run for office in those elections (2); Although the electoral law was not exposed to political controversy or a campaign of objections by political parties, it contributed to an increase in sectarian and national polarization in Iraq.
The political forces realized the need for a new electoral law to hold the House of Representatives elections in 2010 (the second round); Therefore, it proceeded with a slight change in the law, on the legal basis of which the parliamentary elections took place in its first session in 2005, so the Elections Law No. (16) of 2005 was amended to become Law No. (26) of 2009, to which Article 1 added “allocating one seat for every 100,000 people.” According to the statistics of the Ministry of Commerce for the year 2005, with the addition of a growth rate (2.8%) for each governorate to that statistic, and maintaining the same electoral system (proportional representation) while changing the list from closed to semi-open; That is, you choose the list, and then you choose the preferred candidate within that list. A number of seats have been allocated to components. Including 5 seats for the Christian component of the governorates of Baghdad, Nineveh, Erbil, Kirkuk, and Dohuk, one seat for the Mandaean Sabeans in Baghdad, one seat for the Yazidi component, and one seat for the Shabak people in Nineveh. As for women, the law intended that the quota for women be (25%) of parliamentary seats (3).
This law was subject to lengthy discussions between the political forces and parties and resulted in disagreements within the political component itself, in addition to the struggle over it between the Shiite Islamic forces and the liberal forces that were represented at the time by the Iraqi List headed by Iyad Allawi, the former prime minister. There were repercussions after the announcement of the results, through the start of the popular protests in 2011; What prompted the political class to feel the need to undertake limited reforms to the electoral law, especially since there are opposition voices, who no longer accept the equation of governance based on sectarianism, nationalism, and sect, at a time when it has become clear that there is a systematic exclusion of civil forces that want to build a state that is consistent with the Iraqi constitution. Even what the supreme Shiite authority in Najaf wants.
The pressing nature of political transformations in Iraq had an impact on going towards making a limited amendment to the Parliament Election Law in 2014 (the third parliamentary session) for the parliamentary elections in its second session in 2010, and the amendments were approved in the form of Law No. (45) of 2013, as some Minor changes in the law, including the number of seats in the House of Representatives, which has become 328 seats, eight of which have been allocated to components, five of which are to the Christian component distributed over (Baghdad, Nineveh, Kirkuk, Dohuk, Erbil), one for the Yazidi component in Nineveh, and one for the Sabean-Mandaeans In Baghdad, and one seat for the Shabak component in Nineveh while maintaining the same electoral system (proportional representation) semi-open lists (closed list with preference) but with a modification in the electoral formula to become the modified St. Lego instead of the Herr formula (4).
The equation of governance through quotas and consensualism continued until the 2014 elections, and the disintegration of blocs, currents, and alliances began, which motivated civil forces to stage demonstrations against the poor political performance of the political class and the rampant corruption and exclusion in 2015 and 2016, including entering the international zone and accessing the offices of the Speaker of Parliament and the Prime Minister.At a time when power, represented by the dominance of traditional forces, regained control over the situation with Haider al-Abadi, the former prime minister, carrying out some political and administrative reforms, this coincided with that for the first time calling for the formation of a national and political majority government and building longitudinal alliances, instead of vertical ethno-sectarian alliances. In effect since 2005, and indeed, during the 2018 elections, two alliances that cross sectarianism and nationalism were created, namely, “Islah” that includes Shiites, Sunnis, and Kurds, and “Al-Bina’” that also includes Shiites, Sunnis, and Kurds. The electoral system itself and the nomination mechanism. As for the changes, they were limited to increasing some parliamentary seats, which amounted to 329 seats, in addition to allocating one seat for the Faili Kurds, and also adopting electronic devices to speed up the results, as the devices sort and count votes electronically without referring to the old method of counting. And sort it on paperby polling officials (5).
Second, multiple circuits as a temporary response:
The result of the 2018 elections resulted in the victory of the “Sairoon” list, which is sponsored by Muqtada al-Sadr, in the first place, and the Al-Fatah list in the second place. The foundations for its continuation fell after a year and a half with the major demonstrations of the October 2019 uprising (6), which changed the political equation in Iraq towards adopting a new approach, including a new electoral law that adopts multiple constituencies, not a single constituency, for the purpose of expanding political participation; By abandoning St. Lego's law, the single circuit, and the closed list, and relying on the multiple circuit system.
In view of this, Parliament approved Election Law No. 9 of 2020, in which the majority system was adopted instead of the proportional system that was in place in all elections that preceded the 2021 elections, and Law No. 9 of 2020 approved individual candidacy exclusively, after the nomination of party electoral lists was It is the prevailing in the past, while reducing the age of the allowed candidate from 30 to 28 years to provide a greater opportunity for young people in the elections (7). Among the important changes in the law is its approval of a new mechanism for dividing constituencies, represented in dividing a single governorate into several electoral districts, instead of the governorate being a single constituency. He also dealt with the seat distribution system, as he decided to allocate seats in each constituency to the winners of the highest votes, respectively, regardless of the candidate's gender, after the number of votes cast for each one within the constituency was calculated in one round.
The result of the elections came in a way that increased the seats of the “Sadr bloc”, which is the largest in the parliament consisting of 329 seats, to reach 73 seats, instead of 54 seats in the previous parliament, while the “Shiite coordination framework”, its main competitor for years, which includes The armed factions allied to Iran, as they won 14 seats instead of 48 seats, which they won in the 2018 elections after participating in the fight against the “ISIS” organization in Iraq, and the Sunni political forces came in second place, which gave them the greatest amount of influence. It has been obtained since the fall of Saddam Hussein's regime and the formation of the Iraqi political system based on the strengthening of the Shiite forces.
After the announcement of the results of the parliamentary elections, many supporters of the armed factions that lost their seats in parliament took to the streets, and claimed that the elections were rigged against them. However, the chaos that accompanied the streets of Iraq after the results was not limited only to the angry demonstrations, who organized sit-ins near the Green Zone. In Baghdad for weeks, under the pretext of rigging the elections, even a drone attack on the residence of the former Iraqi prime minister raised the specter of continuing violence, an attempt that some Iraqi officials, including former Iraqi President Barham Salih, considered a coup against the Iraqi political system.
The law that came after the “October Movement” was considered a victory for the new emerging forces that are trying to compete and enter parliament. 9 seats, and the “Canon Sunshine Movement” won 6 seats (8).
Iraqis were divided over the voting system under which those elections were held, which relied on dividing the country into multiple constituencies, equal to the quota of women's seats in the House of Representatives. That is, (83) constituencies, as his defenders believe that he enjoys an acceptable degree of transparency, especially after he gave the emerging powers and independents an opportunity to reach the legislative power, while opponents accuse him of causing the political crisis that struck the country for more than a year, which hindered voting on The President of the Republic, the formation of the government, in addition to the withdrawal of the Sadrist bloc from Parliament, and the ensuing tension at the popular and political levels, as they continued until a political agreement was reached, according to which a President of the Republic was chosen, and confidence was given to the government on October 27, 2022.
Third, St. Lego Dedication to Crises:
Saint-Lego is a method invented in 1912 by the French mathematician Andre Saint-Lego, and the purpose of this formula is to distribute votes to electoral seats in multi-seat constituencies, and to reduce the resulting defects between the asymmetry in votes and the number of seats obtained, which is a defect that large parties benefit from Calculating small blocks. A modified St. Lego is a modified image intended to distribute seats in a more equitable manner (9).
This formula was used for the first time in the Iraqi parliamentary elections in 2014, and through this formula, parliamentary seats were distributed in Iraq, as well as the provincial council elections for the same session, and one of its results was that the small lists obtained seats in the Iraqi parliament and provincial councils, and generated chaos and division in Political blocs and coalitions, due to the fluctuation of the positions of these small blocs, and the change of their opinions overnight according to their political interests.
The adoption of the “Saint Lego” system, based on the electoral denominator (1.7), which was approved recently, establishes the dominance of the traditional authority leaders, and makes them more in control of the lists, and it depends on the distribution of votes within the electoral list, and not on the highest winner, as the law depends on the province It is one constituency, and the fairness of competition in the elections is abolished, and the traditional blocs will remain dominant, and they will have the best chance of re-entering the dome of parliament. Thus, after the House of Representatives approves the election law in the “St. Lego” formula, the political map of the parliament will not remain the same; The upcoming elections, in accordance with the legislated law, will not give way to independent and small forces and personalities with a preponderance in Parliament. Rather, the scenario of the pre-2021 elections will return, represented by the return of traditional forces and their management according to their interests (10).
The parties to the ruling coalition (the state administration) found that moving towards the St. Lego system is the most appropriate for the situation in Iraq, and spares the country the failures witnessed in the previous elections, in addition to the huge waste of votes. On the other hand, a number of independents and small blocs object to amending the law, and they believe that it is a circumvention to reduce the chances of small parties in Parliament, as they see in the St. Lego system a gateway to the control of traditional political parties and blocs at the expense of small ones, and that the proposal to return to it came after the opposition forces managed to reach Parliament in the 2021 elections, and its competition with the traditional forces.
In fact, the introduction of the St. Lego system renews the problem of agreement on a fixed election law since the first parliamentary elections of the current political system in 2005, when the law was replaced several times, and each time the political forces and blocs tried to adapt to that change, in addition to the popular and political objections issued. from some of the affected blocks. In addition to the presence of a balanced discourse calling for constancy in the laws that affect the democratic path and the electoral process, and not to change them under any circumstances, or according to the requirements of any party.
Iraq has witnessed several transformations in its electoral law, at the level of the system, the constituencies, and the method of counting votes. After Iraq was a single constituency in 2005, the law was amended so that each governorate became one constituency, and the number of seats was allocated according to the population percentage, and this was applied in the 2010 elections. , 2014 and 2018), with an amendment to the mechanism for distributing voters’ votes in 2014, when the St. Lego system was included for the first time in accordance with the Iraqi amendment to it, as Iraq adopted the electoral denominator (1.6) instead of the globally applied denominator (1.4), which increased the chances of the traditional powers In controlling the House of Representatives at the expense of smaller forces and parties, it can be said that “the current election law in Parliament is not the original St. Lego, which is by (1.1) and can reach (1.2) and in some countries it reaches (1.4), rather it is St. Lego is a hybrid with the invention of the Iraqi parliament, and it is not correct to call it Saint Lego.”
Accordingly, the transformations that occurred in the election law since the first Iraqi parliamentary elections in 2005 can be included in the following:
1 Adoption of a single constituency in the 2005 National Assembly elections, and it was adopted due to the lack of statistical data for the governorates, its advantage is that it preserves votes from being lost, and represents the representation of small groups scattered throughout Iraq.
2 In the elections (2010, 2014, and 2018), the Elections Law No. (16) of 2006 and its amendments was adopted, according to which each governorate became one electoral district, with a number of seats proportional to the number of residents in the governorate, according to the statistics of the Ministry of Commerce.
3 In the 2014 elections, the St. Lego system was adopted for counting votes, before it was canceled in 2020, and Iraq relied on an electoral denominator that reached (1.6) in 2014, and (1.7) in 2018, while the electoral denominator applied globally is ( 1.4) This rise between 2014-2018 strengthened the chances of the traditional forces to control the House of Representatives at the expense of smaller forces and parties.
4 In the 2014 elections, the St. Lego system was adopted for counting votes, before it was canceled in the 2020 elections, in favor of approving Elections Law No. (9) of 2020, in which the provinces were divided into multiple constituencies, and votes were counted according to the individual election system, and for the candidate The winner of the highest votes, in order to ensure that all votes are equal and reach small areas, which came after protests calling for a radical change in the political scene.
A previous quick look at the “St. Lego” formula reveals that the traditional powers that had to bow before what seemed to be a great storm, those that took place during the years 2019 and 2020, which almost overthrew the entire political system had it not been for the excessive use of security force, which led to the killing and wounding of tens of thousands. The majority of them are young people, and because the traditional forces found themselves in a state of collapse in light of the confusion of their political and public situation, they accepted an equation beyond their control regarding acceptance of the multiple constituency system as an electoral law and the formation of a government in the year 2020, provided that its mission is to hold early elections within a period not exceeding For only one year, and although the elections took place on time as demanded by those forces, disputes erupted again among them immediately after the election results were announced.The state and political life were suspended for a year, punctuated by several months of demonstrations, sit-ins, and breaches of the Green Zone and bridges, leading to limited military friction between the two largest Shiite forces, namely the “Sadr movement” and the “coordinating framework,” while the Kurds and Sunnis remained almost neutral, waiting for either of them to happen. Understanding or separation between the two parties.
Fourth, the expected repercussions of approving the new election law:
Approving the election law according to the one-constituency formula will have repercussions on the political and electoral scene. At the political level, this law reduced the possibility of participation in political life by emerging independent forces and personalities, at a time when the political process is in dire need of a radical reform process in order to restore confidence in it, which was shaken as a result of the deviation of traditional parties from democracy and their mishandling with the state, its institutions and their opponents. . So; The return of the same parties responsible for failures that extended for twenty years will generate a state of political frustration that could prompt an explosion larger than the 2019 uprising. Likewise, the withdrawal of the Sadrist bloc from parliament and the political scene leads to more exclusivity of the traditional forces themselves, which represent Shiites, Kurds and Sunnis, in power completely. By having a comfortable parliamentary majority to pass whatever laws it wants in councils, local governments, or the next parliament.
The first gain: is that al-Sadr succeeded in showing that the Shiite framework is proceeding towards laws that contradict the opinion of the Shiite reference in Najaf, and thus it falls out of the coordination framework that they listen to the opinion of the reference and thus remove this religious card from them.
The second gain: is that al-Sadr will not be responsible for approving this law, and therefore he puts the coordinating framework and its allies against the Iraqi street, although he may run in the elections according to this law, and he will not be a loser because of the cohesion of his popular base, and therefore the biggest loss for the Shiite framework and its allies, considering They passed the law against the will of the street.
The third gain: is that the leader of the Sadrist movement in the medium term will be closest to the emerging political forces and even activists in the protests, despite the existence of intersections between them. But the hostility of the Shiite framework will unite them, and al-Sadr will be the winner and will get a new political class through a possible political alliance.
The fourth gain: Among the gains that al-Sadr has achieved in this regard, especially with some of the entrenchments that still exist, is that he will move towards forming a national list that crosses the sectarian entrenchments in central and southern Iraq. So that would be a huge win.
Although everything is still open to all possibilities, if al-Sadr remains silent, the traditional forces, specifically the “Shiite framework,” will consider this silence a crisis in itself, but if al-Sadr intervenes, Iraq will be facing a new equation whose results are difficult to predict.
The election law may not have a significant impact on the Sadrist movement, as in the case of other opposition forces, as it has a religious-ideological popular base that enabled it to adapt to all previous electoral laws, whether it was a single constituency or multiple constituencies, and “St. Lego”; In addition, the State Administration Coalition used the method of gradual introduction of the law, beginning with the media presentation of it, and then moving it to the stage of parliamentary reading, with the aim of measuring the reactions of the Sadrists, and then finally dealing with the reactions, and thus the possibility of the Sadrists rejecting the new law diminished with the presence of These are the reasons on the one hand, and on the other hand, al-Sadr is waiting for more errors to accumulate from the coordination framework. To start a political movement that makes his return to the scene inevitable.
The upcoming elections, according to this law, are the opposite of what was taken by the “conscious movement”, which is one of the new political movements that announced a boycott of the elections. In protest against the passage of the amendment to the provincial and district council elections law, I promised that the passage of this law would pave the way for a new phase of domination and acquisition under a democratic cover, in addition to the Speaker of the House of Representatives exceeding his legal role, and what was drawn by the internal system and practicing a great dictatorship in expelling deputies who objected to the law and forcibly in a collision with a mission The United Nations in Iraq (12).
The protest movement, although it took place in limited demonstrations (13), to show rejection of the law on the one hand and to prove its presence in the street on the other hand, but as a protest movement representing “Tishreen” it has lost much of its momentum, and it is unlikely that it will regain the strength it had in 2019. In preventing the passage of the law or pressing for its subsequent amendment, for several reasons; The most important of which is that the youth actors in it were frustrated as a result of the high expectations that were raised compared to the results that were achieved, in addition to the fact that the Tishreen parties that were formed after the protest are not in line with the great aspirations that were formulated within the protest arenas, in addition to that parties belonging to Tishreen negotiated with the traditional political blocs about The electoral law, which means that they chose the path of negotiations rather than through protests.
The approval of this electoral law according to the formula it was passed broadens the horizons of the crisis and transfers it from its political nature to a popular electoral one, as the Iraqi street in general and the voter in particular has lost confidence in most political forces and in all electoral laws and voting mechanisms that are approved by the High Electoral Commission. This generated a state of frustration and despair at the possibility of being involved in a process of change, even if it was gradual. Therefore, the option of boycotting the elections may be the closest to reality, and it is an expression of rejection of the law and its formula, and the continuation of the same approach in managing the state. Thus, the legitimacy of the elections that come through the participation rate will put it at stake. The 2021 elections rate is still a matter of political controversy, as the opposition forces indicate that the percentage did not exceed 20% or less than that; What made them push the illegality of the current political equation, in addition to the fact that the events of the formation of the three presidencies and the process of exclusion and revenge that still dominate the scene will double the conviction of the boycott, and thus Iraq will be facing a deeper crisis than its predecessors.
Conclusion:
The moment of voting on the third amendment to the Parliament, Provincial and District Council Elections Law No. 12 of 2018 represents a major challenge by the traditional forces towards the Iraqi people, the independent political forces, the Sadrist movement, the protest forces and the Shiite authority in Najaf. Because it came contrary to the desire of all these parties, which had previously announced their total rejection of this formula, as the system of distributing seats according to “St. The exclusion of its competitors through the new law, in contrast to the one-vote majority system, which was applied in the 2021 elections, as it allowed the existence of political pluralism and independent representatives in Parliament, in addition to the fact that the multiple constituencies gave the people and the voter real representation in Parliament, and had encouraged the selection of independents, And raise confidence to participate in the elections, while one constituency depends on
The return to “St. Lego” and the mechanisms that the law brought about also represent a moment of punishment pushed by the traditional forces as a result of their losses after the events of 2019 that toppled the government of Adel Abdul Mahdi. Passing it is a response to the electoral law of 2020 with multiple constituencies, which made political leaders lose their symbolism and authority over the representatives and their political blocs.
That the application of the “Saint-Lego” formula will narrow the space for emerging parties and independents, as they will face difficulty in winning, because they do not have political money, nor state institutions that are employed, as was the case in the majority of the previous electoral campaigns for the past sessions; Which may lead to the explosion of the situation again in Iraq.
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