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Will the dollar disappear in Iraq?
Economical 10/18/2023
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Sarah Salam
For eight months, the Central Bank has been unable to stop the rampage of the dollar against the dinar in the parallel market. This is offset by the absence of the ability to meet the dollar demands that cover foreign trade in light of the expansion of Iraq’s import list and its limitation to exporting oil only.
The electronic platform recently introduced by the Central Bank was not able to restore stability to the parallel market and reduce the gap between the official price and the parallel price, as most transfers still take place outside that platform, especially with countries that are witnessing US sanctions such as Iran, Syria, and entities in Turkey.
With this landscape full of uncertainty, Iraq intends to completely ban transactions in US dollars starting from January 2024, under the pretext of reducing the misuse of hard currencies, financial crimes, and currency smuggling abroad.
From my point of view, the timing of this measure is not correct, in light of the absence of solutions to the problems facing the parallel markets for foreign currency, as this portends an exacerbation of the cash or cash crisis in Iraq, and there is a possibility that matters will reach a severe shortage in the Iraqi monetary mass, which means resorting to... The central bank will print money, and the consequences will be dire, most notably the monetary inflation that a number of countries in the region are currently witnessing, such as Iran, Turkey, and Lebanon.
Here I call on the Central Bank to work diligently towards adopting a new currency to replace the dollar, such as the euro, for example, the Chinese yuan, or the Emirati dirham. This is not easy, but it is not impossible, while working to use gold as an agreed-upon unit for evaluating goods and services.
This trend would reduce the pressure on the dollar in the parallel market, and would also be a fatal blow to speculators in the parallel markets, in addition to preserving trade with countries that are currently witnessing economic sanctions by the US Treasury Department and the US Federal Bank.
Today, the Central Bank of Iraq has a historic opportunity to address and manage the dollar exchange rate and arrange the parallel market securities, in a practical and decisive manner, and work to determine priorities in the monetary market with the aim of improving the stability of the foreign currency. This is matched by a serious effort to push private banks towards providing the best services to customers and creating a spirit of competition between them. In order to attract the hoarded cash mass outside the Iraqi banking system.
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