“Losses that the Sudanese government will not be able to bear.” Iraqi warnings against targeting American bases
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2023-10-23 14:17
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Shafaq News/ Warnings are mounting about the dangers of dragging Iraq into the conflict of the axes following the current events in Gaza, while observers confirm that the idea of “unifying the arenas of resistance” harms Iraqi interests, and the country will incur great losses that the government of Muhammad Shiaa al-Sudani will not be able to bear, especially since Iraq has an agreement. Strategically with the United States of America, which will return the country to square one after a short recovery period.
During the past few days, the American bases in Iraq (Victoria in Baghdad, Ain al-Assad in Anbar, and Harir in Erbil) were targeted by resistance factions after a truce that lasted for more than a year, and despite the American forces not yet taking a position to respond to the sources of fire. However, the increase in attacks may force Washington to launch operations to respond to these targeting, according to observers.
A speech that "motivated" the resistance factions
In this context, security expert Mukhlid Hazem Al-Darb says, “The axis of resistance extends from Iraq to Syria, Lebanon, and Yemen, and by targeting American bases in Iraq, the resistance wanted to convey a message that they are ready to respond to American interests if an invasion of Gaza occurs, given that America is the supporter of the Zionist entity in its war against Gaza.”
Al-Darb explained to Shafaq News Agency, “Al-Sudani’s speech in Cairo was not diplomatic like the speeches of other presidents and kings, but rather it was passionate, emotional, and revolutionary. He considered Iraq part of the axis of resistance in the ongoing conflict, which motivated the resistance factions to target American bases and interests in Iraq.” .
He added, "The coming days will be full of surprises, after the rules of engagement depart from the frameworks under which they are dealt with, especially if the arenas unify their discourse and announce zero hour to begin their operations. Then Iraq will be part of these operations and the situation will become inflamed."
He points out that "the American side has not responded to the targeting of its bases so far, perhaps because these attacks are considered part of the 'normal rules of engagement'. However, it will not stand idly by if it increases and will respond, which will reflect on the fragile economic situation and somewhat stable security, and will restore the country's stability." To square one.
Reduction in US diplomatic representation
The US Embassy in Iraq reported yesterday, Sunday, that the State Department had ordered the departure of non-essential government employees and their family members, the embassy in Baghdad, and the US Consulate General in Erbil, Kurdistan.
According to the statement, the US State Department also called on American citizens not to travel to Iraq after the recent attacks on American forces and individuals in the region, noting that US government personnel were directed not to use Baghdad International Airport for security concerns.
In this aspect, political analyst, Ahmed Al-Yasiri, says, “The issue of reducing American diplomatic representation in the American embassy is linked to the internal rules of engagement, which are between the Iranian-backed factions and the American forces present in Iraq,” noting that “the recent targeting operations in Iraq - Based on the events in Gaza - it violated the rules of engagement.”
The factions face a problem
Al-Yasiri explained to Shafaq News Agency, “The factions’ decision to attack the American bases was not centralized, as it did not come from their parties or related to the Iraqi interest,” indicating that “the political front of these factions is a partisan front, which constitutes the largest bloc in Parliament, and also forms the Hezbollah government.” In Lebanon, this military connection is linked to the Revolutionary Guards.”
He adds, "This is a problem that factional forces in Iraq are experiencing, between obtaining political gains and positions, and continuing with the idea of unifying arenas related to external events that Iraq has nothing to do with, whether the events in Gaza, the Lebanon war, or in Yemen, and so on."
He asserts, "The idea of unifying the resistance arenas harms Iraqi interests at the strategic level, as there is an agreement with the American side, and part of the Biden administration's agreement with the Sudanese government since the beginning of its formation, is to continue the truce and military control, and to ensure the safety of the American bases."
He continues, “What is happening now is a violation of this truce, and it may have serious repercussions on the Iraqi economy in the coming period, in terms of the power and control of the US Federal Reserve over the movement and dynamism of the Iraqi economy, and this aspect may be used as a pressure card on the Sudanese government if it is unable to control the movement of the factions.” ".
Call for other positions
In turn, the director of the “Al-Rasd” Center for Political and Strategic Studies, Muhammad Ghasoub Younis, points out that “what the resistance did is not in the interest of Iraq, and is not considered support for Hamas forces or the resistance factions in Gaza. Rather, it would have been better to resort to other means to pressure the Americans.” And against the Zionist entity.”
Younis added to Shafaq News Agency, "This position taken by the resistance factions will reflect negatively on the situation in Iraq, and will end the honeymoon between the Sudanese government and the American ambassador, who was close to the government and many of the leaders of the coordination framework."
He explains, “The position of the leader of the Sadrist movement, Muqtada al-Sadr, was the best because it did not affect Iraq when he called on Arabs and Muslims to stand on the borders of occupied Palestine and wear shrouds without carrying weapons. This is a more influential position than what the resistance factions in Iraq took by attacking the bases, an act classified as Agree with Iran by moving its arms in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Yemen.
He points out that "Iraq's entry into the battle of the axes will expose the country to great losses that the Sudanese government will not be able to bear. Therefore, the government, political leaders and rational people must be content with positions that support the Palestinian people, and focus currently on the ceasefire in Gaza, and then take other positions without provoking hostility with them." United States of America.
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