What happens now after Iran strikes US military facilities in Iraq: ANALYSIS

[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.][You must be registered and logged in to see this image.]
What happens now after Iran strikes US military facilities in Iraq: ANALYSIS




7 hrs ago

[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]

• [You must be registered and logged in to see this image.]
  
• [You must be registered and logged in to see this image.]
  
• [You must be registered and logged in to see this image.]
  

Mike Pompeo wearing a suit and tie: President Donald Trump, accompanied by Vice President Mike Pence, left, and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, speaks Oct. 23, 2019, in the Diplomatic Room of the White House in Washington.

Previous Slide

Next Slide

Full screen

1/3 SLIDES  Jacquelyn Martin/AP


President Donald Trump, accompanied by Vice President Mike Pence, left, and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, speaks Oct. 23, 2019, in the Diplomatic Room of the White House in Washington.

2/3 SLIDES  Nasser Nasser/AP, FILE


Ain al-Asad air base in the western Anbar desert, Iraq, Dec. 29, 2019.

3/3 SLIDES  Mehdi Ghasemi/ISNA via AFP/Getty Images, FILE


The commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard's Quds Force, Gen. Qassem Soleimani, in photo taken on Sept. 14, 2013 by the Iranian Students' News Agency.

3/3 SLIDES



Iran responded to the United States' killing of its top military official, Gen. Qassem Soleimani, by [You must be registered and logged in to see this link.] at two U.S. military facilities in Iraq Tuesday night.

The move is likely to stoke fear of a war between the U.S. and Iran, but retired Col. Stephen Ganyard, a former fighter pilot and ABC News military analyst, said that what happens next will really depend on the damage incurred by the missiles, which were fired at the Erbil Air Base in northern Iraq and the Ain Al-Asad Air Base in western Iraq.

[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]

"It depends on what they hit. If they hit nothing, then the situation may de-escalate. If they hit something substantial and if they hurt Americans, then they can expect this will lead to a significant U.S. retaliation," said Ganyard.

Ganyard also noted that Iran attacked "what would seem to be the least likely targets, which they knew weren't well defended, if at all."



Click to expand






The White House said it was aware of the reports of the missile launches.



"We are aware of the reports of attacks on US facilities in Iraq," White House press secretary Stephanie Grisham said in a statement. "The President has been briefed and is monitoring the situation closely and consulting with his [You must be registered and logged in to see this link.] team."

[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]

A statement from the Department of Defense said it still working on initial damage assessments. 

A source within the Kurdistan Regional Government confirmed to ABC News that three missiles had been fired at Erbil International Airport and the adjoining U.S. military base but that two of the missiles were shot down by anti-missile batteries and the third fell behind the airport and did not detonate.

It's still unclear what, if any, damage there is at Ain Al-Asad Air Base, which Ganyard said is isolated and has had relatively fewer troops than other U.S. facilities since the U.S. began withdrawing troops from Iraq.

Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said in a statement that "any new invasions and aggression will result in more painful and pounding responses" and urged "the American people to call on troops from the region to prevent further casualties and not allow the lives of its military to be further endangered."

[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]

Two U.S. officials told ABC News that there have been no reports of American casualties so far.

ABC News contributor Mick Mulroy, the former deputy assistant secretary of defense for the Middle East, said the statement from the Revolutionary Guard Corps seems to be an attempt to end the conflict with this strike, although he acknowledged that they've also accepted the possibility of an escalation.

"I believe the White House will look at the level of damage and especially the U.S. casualties," Mulroy said. "If there are no casualties, this may be it. If there are casualties, or if intel indicates another wave is coming, they may act preemptively to reduce or eliminate the ballistic missile threat."

The latest strike from Iran, called Operation Martyr Soleimani, came hours after [You must be registered and logged in to see this link.] that the U.S. would "pay" for its actions and that it should "be prepared for the consequences" after killing Soleimani in an American airstrike last week.

The Trump administration has [You must be registered and logged in to see this link.] citing plans by Soleimani for an "imminent attack" on U.S. military personnel and diplomats in the region -- a claim that was met with scrutiny by lawmakers who had seen the classified justification for the strike



[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]