[size=30]Frank26 and KTFA Members "News and Views" Tuesday PM 6-2-8-2022[/size]
KTFA:Frank26: "ON YESTERDAY'S UB2B.......... 'THE ONLY TOPIC IN IRAQ… IS THE MONETARY REFORM'.......... BEHOLD KTFA FAMILY!!!"...... F26
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Samson: "In a quiet fire" .. a surprising and important statement by the Prime Minister's advisor about changing the dollar exchange
06/27/2022 22:27:19
The financial advisor to the Prime Minister, Mazhar Muhammad Salih, surprised the Iraqis about the possibility of changing and reducing the exchange rate of the dollar against the dinar.
Saleh said on the program “Al-Mastra” broadcast by Al-Furat satellite channel this evening: “We need to cook on a quiet fire and monitor prices until the end of 2022, oil prices and foreign reserves,” stressing that “a change in the exchange rate is possible, but it requires patience and careful study
He pointed out that "there are fixed facts on the ground. The exchange rate of the dinar to the dollar follows stability, and it is not arbitrary, but rather a contract between the Central Bank of Iraq and the Ministry of Finance, because the foreign currency offer comes from the Ministry of Finance 100%, which is the only source for it in the country
Saleh added, "But the Central Bank deals in dollars to maintain cash reserves and prevent inflation, and the modern Iraqi financial history is witnessing cooperation in determining the dollar exchange rate between the Central Bank and the Ministry of Finance. He stressed that "the agreement with the Ministry of Finance to set the dollar exchange rate for a period of three years, but changing it became a surprise, and it is within the shock policy, and there are limits to the change in the dollar exchange rate, and it is not a political or populist issue
He noted that "the first limit according to commodity prices and the market, and at that time the central bank will defend the stability of prices according to the reserve, which is the highest in its history now, and we have an encouraging surplus for the end of the year from 8 to 10 percent." He stressed, "If prices and financial policies fail to defend the livelihood of the poor and social protection salaries, the Central Bank will intervene by raising the purchasing power of the Central Bank through its foreign reserves
It is logical that the fiscal policy has a package to defend the livelihood, relieve the poor classes and social welfare, and compensate farmers for the differentials in grain prices, and the government maintains fuel prices and government services fixed, and this stability is a kind of support that rose to 15% of GDP
And regarding changing the dollar exchange rate, the Prime Minister’s advisor said: “Everything is possible, but we need patience in changing the dollar exchange rate in the event of high prices and the fiscal policy is unable and monetary policy is able to cover the dinar,” noting that “the Food Security Law if it cannot secure the requirements.” In the event of an increase in prices, the central bank will intervene to preserve the strength of the dinar against the dollar LINK
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Tivon: This is either a wait and see. Or a initiate and hope.
Inflation seems to be less of an issue. But the volatility in the markets is what appears to be the deciding factor as to how long it take to feel comfortable with reinstating the Dinar.
I guess they want to avoid shocking the markets. Not sure how they plan to get around the concerning issue at the expense of the citizens if they forecast any issues that cannot be offset appropriately or proficient enough where the CBI is forced to intervene.
But they still allude to going through with it in spite of and will just adjust on the fly as the rare gradually increase from 1:1. So the problem may not necessarily be coming out at equal value but maintaining it.
Ok, understood. Because we all know BUNA will be launching in the 2nd half of this year which starts on July 1st. Iraq has fail safes in place for marginal increases/decreases in the local and international prices based on their policies and the contracts that are in place which I said yesterday is the deciding factor of everything and not necessarily the rate alone.
As it means nothing if you don't have precautionary measures in place for everyone who thinks merely not having a budget was always the issue. Then again maybe Al-Kazemi knows something that Mazhar doesn't if he feels confident that this can be done at the earliest session. IMO
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Pete2001: Tivon, greatly appreciate your perspective and understanding on all things, along w Frank, MM and Petra's. Question, would this not be a headfake on timing..I mean they have spent over a year getting financial house in order...domestically and internationally w WB, IMF, etc. I mean cook all you want but the meat is gonna be well done to burnt if this takes to the end of year and is counter to putting all these new ATM's etc.
“We need to cook on a quiet fire and monitor prices until the end of 2022, oil prices and foreign reserves,” stressing that “a change in the exchange rate is possible, but it requires patience and careful study"
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Tivon: I can see why the Iraqi citizens were surprised by this statement given the reasons listed as to the preparations that have been progressing with all of the different sectors of departments, institutions, and ministries for the past few years or more. Especially the reserves.
I mean they just announced an 35% increase. A spike in prices should not be of that much concern if you have more than enough in hard currency to protect against it.
I don't know if this is Iraq getting cold feet or just nervous. Because he says they have a fiscal policy to defend the Dinar and can protect the citizens. Ok, let's eat if that's the case. Because the Iraqis are at the table with a fork & knife in hand and they smell a well cooked meal on the stove.
What difference would the end of the year make if your concerns are based on a toss up that the markets will not telegraph or screen beforehand for you to feel confident enough to reinstate. It's not a blind item. They have the tool sets to smooth out the rough areas once the rate set sails into the open sea.
What went on in the past five days where this aspect was not addressed that would make Al-Kazemi recommend at the earliest session to reduce the Dollar rate that made Mazhar Muhammad Saleh uncomfortable and state this today?
Were they were in two separate board meetings? Because I wouldn't have suggested to 100 Deputies to sign on to anything if every area of concern was not discussed. IMO
Pattycakes77: All we have to do at this point is wait and see. July 1st is significant regarding BUNA, policies and contracts.
I just do not see Iraq kicking the can down the road much further with all the wonderful news that came out in the past weeks leading up to now. Why the ATMs if things are not imminent ? Things just wouldn't make sense.
My hope is in the days to follow leading up into the weekend. God be with us all and we all must pray to break any evil powers that maybe holding the Iraq dinar hostage. I believe also there is a demonic spirit holding it up because it knows God's will, will be done.
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Frank26: "KAZEMI TALKS TO THE IRAQI CITIZENS ABOUT THEIR REFORMS"......F26
Samson: Al-Kazemi: We have obligations that we must fulfill, and mistrust with others is not in our policy
06/28/2022 17:34:42
The most important statement of the Prime Minister, Mustafa Al-Kazemi, during the cabinet session held today, Tuesday























Media Office of the Prime Minister
28 - June – 2022 LINK
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