It is declining in Iraq by about half.. The World Bank expects a decline in growth in the Middle East in 2023
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2023-04-06 12:30
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Shafaq News/ The World Bank expected, on Thursday, that a double-digit inflation in food prices in the region this year will lead to a slowdown in growth to 3% compared to 5.8% last year, indicating that growth in Iraq will decrease from 2022.
The bank thus lowered its forecast for the growth of the region in 2023, after previous estimates it published last October, with a growth of 3.5%.
The bank prepared a report on the Middle East and North Africa region, before the sudden oil production cuts announced by the “OPEC +” group last Sunday, which led to a rise in oil prices as well as price expectations.
The World Bank indicated that its expectations do not include any impact of this decision.
The economies of the Middle East and North Africa region vary greatly among themselves, as the six countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council are high-income oil exporters, including countries experiencing conflicts such as Yemen, developing countries that import oil such as Jordan, and other developing countries that export oil such as Iraq.
Forecasts indicate that developing oil-exporting countries, including Algeria and Iraq, will witness growth of 2.2% in 2023, down from 3.9% in 2022.
The World Bank stated that the average food price inflation on an annual basis in 16 economies in the Middle East and North Africa region reached 29% between March and December 2022, which is higher than the main inflation rate of 19.4% on an annual basis for that period. .
The report warned that the deterioration of the nutritional situation resulting from the rise in food prices will have long-term repercussions on children's development and future prospects.
"Bold policies are needed in a region where youth make up more than half of the population," said Farid Belhaj, World Bank Vice President for the Middle East and North Africa.
The bank expected the growth of per capita GDP, which is an indicator of living standards, to slow to 1.6% in 2023, compared to 4.4% in 2022.
The economies of the Middle East and North Africa region vary greatly among themselves, as the six countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council are high-income oil exporters, including countries experiencing conflicts such as Yemen, developing countries that import oil such as Jordan, and other developing countries that export oil such as Iraq.
It is expected that growth in the GCC countries will slow to 3.2% this year, compared to last year’s growth estimate of 7.3%, under pressure from the expected decline in oil prices from the high levels it recorded in 2022.
With the exception of Egypt, it is estimated that developing oil-importing countries such as Lebanon and Tunisia will achieve growth of 2.8% in 2023 and 3.1% in 2024.
As for Egypt, it is expected to record a relatively high growth of 4% for the years 2023 and 2024.
According to the report, the increase in food prices in the period from March to June 2022 may have led to an increase in the risk of stunting among children by between 19 and 24% in developing countries in the region, which means that about 200 to 285 thousand newborns are at risk of being stunted.
"It is estimated that nearly one in five people living in developing countries in the region will likely be food insecure this year," said Roberta Gatti, World Bank Chief Economist for the Middle East and North Africa.
The World Bank expects growth for the region in general to be 3.1% in 2024.
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