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November 28, 2023[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]
Baghdad/Al-Masala Al-Hadath: Dr. Sinan Al-Saadi
Everyone knows that choosing the prime minister in Iraq is a very difficult matter, as it is subject to internal and external, regional and international agreements. Internally, there must be convincing criteria that are consistent with the orientations of the political forces responsible for choosing the prime minister, represented by the coordinating framework that represents the largest political bloc under the dome of the House of Representatives. Al-Makhroma, which does not protect from the summer sun or winter rain.
The most important thing that attracts attention is that the coordination framework was careful to choose the last four prime ministers who did not have partisan and popular weight, starting with Mr. Haider al-Abadi, passing through Mr. Adel Abdul Mahdi, then to Mr. Mustafa al-Kadhimi, and ending with Mr. Sudanese. This ensures that the coordination framework easily controls the president. The ministers, since he does not have party or parliamentary cover, would support him in the street and under the dome of the House of Representatives, in addition to ensuring that he does not run for a second presidential term, which would enable him to go astray and get out of control and become part of the group (what do we support)?
As for external consensus, there must be an international consensus on who will assume the position of Prime Minister, and that consensus is limited to the United States of America, Britain, and Iran, which makes the candidate for the position of Prime Minister an appropriate table for negotiating and making concessions on the most important outstanding matters between these three countries ( Turkey is outside the negotiations because it has jurisdiction over the Speaker of the House of Representatives (??) at the expense of Iraq and its division.
Al-Sudani was chosen by all of these parties because he is an acceptable figure in the Iraqi street, which needs calm. Mr. Al-Sudani is an insider and has never opposed the previous regime from outside or inside Iraq. He lived through the suffering of the Iraqi people, starting with the Iran-Iraq war, then our entry into Kuwait and ending with it. With the economic siege (that is, he is a hero of trenches and not a hero of hotels??), in addition to that, he does not have an armed militia and a peaceful, non-problematic personality. These qualities made him a character who could be convincing to the street and some of the political forces opposed to the coordination framework, led by the Sadrist movement, the Tishreen forces, and some civil forces. .
Mr. Sudanese's mission was not and will not be an easy task due to the conflict of visions between internal political forces and external international forces, especially since the coordination framework is known for quickly turning against the candidate who assumes the position of Prime Minister in the event that he is unable to implement the conditions that were placed on him in exchange for assuming the position due to pressure from the United States. On the one hand, and the requirements of the Iranian side on the other hand, as well as Britain, which has the historical legacy of occupying Iraq.
As for the coordination framework, it considers the Sudanese master to be their representative in the executive authority, and his survival depends on their support for him in exchange for obedience and implementation of the conditions that were placed on him. However, the implementation of these conditions always collides with the rejection of the previously mentioned opposition forces and the United States of America, as well as the Sunni and Kurdish partners in the political process. .
The satisfaction of the coordination framework or not with the performance of Mr. Sudanese is often dependent on the positions of the Sudanese. For example, the honorable speech of Mr. Sudanese regarding the Zionist extermination of the Palestinian people at the Cairo Peace Summit had a positive impact and good impact on the ears of the forces of the coordination framework. However, the position of the framework was completely reversed after Mr. Sudanese’s return to Iraq and his statement not to allow any armed group to bomb American bases, as the framework and the factions affiliated with some of the framework forces considered that Mr. Sudanese’s statements were a submission to the United States and that Sudanese had begun to lean where the wind inclined? We also cannot fail to mention that Mr. Sudanese did not get rid of (the people of the Kadhimi regime), as that condition was one of the most important conditions of the coordination framework for him, especially in the intelligence service and some security services? .
As for the American side, for the first time after 2003 it refuses to receive the Prime Minister of Iraq in the White House. This did not happen with a predecessor who assumed the position of Prime Minister, and this American behavior comes as a message of dissatisfaction with the policy of Mr. Sudanese, who was unable to implement the American conditions known to most of those concerned and followers. For Iraqi political affairs, what made matters worse were the repercussions of the Al-Aqsa flood epic on the Iraqi scene, as the resistance factions gave themselves the green light to attack the American bases in Iraq, ignoring the denunciations and threats of the Sudanese master, which led to the complexity of the relationship between the United States and the Sudanese master, who stands idly by in the matter. He is confused about his situation, and he has no solution, nor does he have the sixty advisors surrounding him. This complex scene leads us to more than one question:
How long will Mr. Sudanese endure in the midst of this whirlpool?
Will his allies work to overthrow him more than a year after the formation of the government?
Will the Americans, who agreed to appoint him to the position of Prime Minister, abandon him despite their reservations about his cabinet?
Or will Mr. Sudanese succeed in finishing his term peacefully (this is so far unlikely) despite the difficult internal circumstances surrounding him, as well as the external developments and their repercussions on the Iraqi political arena? Is there more than one scenario? But despite that, it remains the best so far.