Home
Efficient Market Theory vs. Behavioral Economic Theory
Posted on November 23, 2015 by Martin Armstrong
QUESTION: Hi,
Thanks for a great blog.
Mr. Armstrong,
I´d like to know your opinion for efficient market hypothesis. Theory states it is impossible to beat the market because market efficiency. I know you disagree with that, but is there any theory which states that markets can´t be efficient? And what’s your opinion of behavioral finance theory?
Thank you,
Kind Regards,
IP
ANSWER: Efficient market theory does not work because markets always overshoot and undershoot. Markets can remain undervalued for decades as was the case for the Dow Jones between 1934 and 1985. Then they play catch-up all of a sudden. Commodities also perform in such a manner others claim are manipulations.
Behavioral economic theory, which many are just now starting to realize, states that markets trade on anticipation, and not necessarily on facts — buy the rumor, sell the news. This is all behavior oriented. We panic not always understanding why, just following the herd. Investing becomes a herd mentality or behavioral economics.
This entry was posted in Basic Concepts, Q&A and tagged behavioral economic theory, Efficient market theory by Martin Armstrong. Bookmark the permalink.
Posted on November 23, 2015 by Martin Armstrong
QUESTION: Hi,
Thanks for a great blog.
Mr. Armstrong,
I´d like to know your opinion for efficient market hypothesis. Theory states it is impossible to beat the market because market efficiency. I know you disagree with that, but is there any theory which states that markets can´t be efficient? And what’s your opinion of behavioral finance theory?
Thank you,
Kind Regards,
IP
ANSWER: Efficient market theory does not work because markets always overshoot and undershoot. Markets can remain undervalued for decades as was the case for the Dow Jones between 1934 and 1985. Then they play catch-up all of a sudden. Commodities also perform in such a manner others claim are manipulations.
Behavioral economic theory, which many are just now starting to realize, states that markets trade on anticipation, and not necessarily on facts — buy the rumor, sell the news. This is all behavior oriented. We panic not always understanding why, just following the herd. Investing becomes a herd mentality or behavioral economics.
This entry was posted in Basic Concepts, Q&A and tagged behavioral economic theory, Efficient market theory by Martin Armstrong. Bookmark the permalink.
» utube 11/19/24 MM&C Report-Census-Global Transparency-Budget-Trade-Banking-Delete the Ze
» Barzani: The relationship with Baghdad is good and no problem can be solved by force
» Al-Mashhadani: The international system today is “fluid and in crisis” and the Middle East crisis is
» Legal Center: Iraq is the fourth Arab country in child labor and there is a need to legislate a law
» Democratic: The new regional government is a coalition and one step away from negotiations to form i
» Parliament resumes its sessions next week... and clarification of the mechanism for extending its le
» A member of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan stresses the need to pass the Kurdistan budget law, whi
» Framework warns: Agreement with Washington will be at stake if Iraq is bombed
» Protecting Iraq is an American duty: Security agreements are not just ink on paper
» Moderate leaders...are they able to guide the path at a regional crossroads?
» Politician reveals political agreements to vote on personal status law
» US report shows the importance of the population census in Iraq: It will reshape this map
» Dollar-Dinar Exchange Rate Gap: Causes and Treatments
» The Fifth Forum for Peace and Security in the Middle East kicks off in Dohuk with the participation
» Planning for / Nina /: The census results will be announced at this time and we implemented the proj
» Former MP: Worrying circumstances accompanied the population census process in Basra
» MP Hassan Al-Asadi brings good news to a group of those covered by Article 140
» Economist: Total cost of general population census reached 951 billion dinars
» Israel's complaint against Iraq.. a prelude to an expected military action - Urgent
» Mahmoud Al-Mashhadani: What is happening today in the Middle East is a “vital area for the second Na
» The complex of forming the regional government is exacerbated by the adherence to the “old faces”
» Bitcoin hits new record
» Prime Minister's Advisor: National Development Plan 2024-2028 depends on census results
» Al-Abadi responds to Senator Lindsey Graham's statement: Incites new conflicts and wars
» War developments portend danger in Iraq.. Israeli threatening messages arrived via a regional state
» Controversy over Kurdish citizens entering Kirkuk before the population census.. What's the story?
» MP reveals date of passing general amnesty and personal status laws
» Economist: The census will lead to an increase in the share of some governorates in regional develop
» Al-Sudani directs to equip border forces with modern weapons and secure all their requirements
» Iraqi government: We are making great efforts to control the influence of factions inside Iraq
» utube 11/18/24 US President Donald Trump Statement About Iraqi Dinar New RateIraqi Dinar News
» Mazhar Saleh: Population census is the basis for achieving optimal development
» Setting the date for announcing the preliminary results of the population census
» Kurdish MP: Population census will affect all governorates financially
» Between Israeli accusations and Baghdad's position: Is Iraq heading towards an international confron
» Al-Sudani renews his directives on the necessity of completing service projects within the previousl
» Political movement calls on parliament to strike dens of corruption
» MP criticizes the Foreign Ministry's performance towards the Turkish occupation
» Parliamentary Economy Committee criticizes the government’s withdrawal of the Public-Private Partner
» Before the vote... Washington moves its agendas to prevent the approval of the personal status law
» Al-Maliki: The Zionist entity seeks to strike Iraq through its expansionist war
» MP identifies 3 black images of the American role in the Middle East
» Where is the Baghdad-Washington agreement? The Zionist entity provokes Iraq and threatens to bomb it
» Durable goods are an open option for citizens.. Planning indicates a high response to the population
» Parliamentary Legal: The regional government is trying to change the demographics of Kirkuk to regai
» Arrest warrant issued for Anbar Council member for involvement in corruption and terrorism cases
» Al-Sudani directs continued payment of wages to workers on a "daily wage" during the two days of the
» What is the relationship between the population census and the national development plan? Al-Sudani’
» Iraq's seaborne crude oil exports decline
» Will the population increase the number of representatives in Iraq?
» In cooperation with the United Nations Population Fund.. The first population census in Iraq in more
» Jordanian company completes strategic submersible pumps project in Iraq
» Rasool: The government is pursuing anyone involved in activities that threaten Iraq's security
» US military creates air bridge from Iraq to Syria
» Al-Sudani, Putin discuss Middle East issues amid unprecedented escalation of tension in the region
» Know the secrets of the Iraqi house.. Baghdad demands that Washington deter Israel
» On the second day of the curfew, Al-Sudani tours Baghdad and “meets citizens”
» Planning: Slums are counted as a fact in the population census
» Despite problems, Iraq and Turkey agree to increase trade exchange
» Iraqi regions detect drones.. and Washington informs Baghdad of "exhausting" its pressure on the ent
» Bitcoin breaks $97,000 barrier for the first time in its history
» A difference of more than two million people: Iraqi or international estimates? Who will prove the a
» In numbers.. UAE exports to Iraq grow significantly
» Problems with the lists and the minister’s travel.. Baghdad to send salaries to Kurdistan employees
» Al-Awadi: Iraq will demand a UN resolution under Chapter VII to immediately cease fire
» How will the census reflect on drawing the economic map of Iraq? An expert answers
» Al-Hakim and Al-Amiri at one table to discuss these files
» Government Advisor: Population Census is an Essential Tool for Building Effective Strategic Economic
» A legal expert explains the extent of the Security Council's response to the Zionist entity's compla
» MP: The remaining time of the government’s term may not allow for a ministerial change
» MP: Iraq has dealt a qualitative blow to international drug trafficking mafias
» During 2024.. Iraq achieves a record in fuel oil exports
» Calls to issue a parliamentary decision binding the government to cancel the agreements with Egypt a
» Central Bank of Iraq sales exceed $6 billion in a month
» Planning: Iraq will apply international standards in the general census in coordination with the Uni
» Trade: Government measures to ensure continued food flow during census days
» The Prime Minister stresses the importance of the collection sector within the system of providing e
» Iraq produces more than 6 million m3 of wastewater daily
» Prime Minister's Advisor: National development plans depend on census results
» Investment extends the grace period for Bismayah residents to enter through electronic gates
» Trade: The general population census will be a starting point for important economic transformations
» Al-Sudani confirms the government's determination to proceed with organizing tax collection in a fai
» Al-Sudani visits the headquarters of the Ministry of Planning
» The Ministry of Oil announces the resumption of work in the production line of the North Gas Company
» Christian discontent with 'alcohol ban': It opposes freedoms and causes financial losses
» Al-Mashhadani stresses the importance of the Russian role in supporting Iraq at the regional and int
» Iraqi government issues new decisions - Urgent
» Legal expert details the extent of the impact of the population census on the controversial Article
» Al-Mashhadani directs the preparation of reports on the performance of ministers, governors and head
» Minister of Labor: More than 4 million children covered by the social protection system
» Al-Sudani chairs emergency meeting of the Ministerial Council for National Security
» Directive from Al-Sudani regarding meter readers on a contract basis in electricity
» Iraq borrows $390 million from Japan to develop Basra refinery
» Iraq and the "Israel-Iran" War.. Serious Government Measures to Secure the Launching Areas of Attack
» Iraqi oil recovers and exceeds the $70 barrier
» Integrity Commission Recovers Corruption Convict From Egypt.. Who Is He?
» utube 11/18/24 MM&C IQD News Report - Contracts - Projects - Non Oil Revenue Streams - Activating
» North Gas announces resumption of production line (1000) after maintenance is completed