Home
Efficient Market Theory vs. Behavioral Economic Theory
Posted on November 23, 2015 by Martin Armstrong
QUESTION: Hi,
Thanks for a great blog.
Mr. Armstrong,
I´d like to know your opinion for efficient market hypothesis. Theory states it is impossible to beat the market because market efficiency. I know you disagree with that, but is there any theory which states that markets can´t be efficient? And what’s your opinion of behavioral finance theory?
Thank you,
Kind Regards,
IP
ANSWER: Efficient market theory does not work because markets always overshoot and undershoot. Markets can remain undervalued for decades as was the case for the Dow Jones between 1934 and 1985. Then they play catch-up all of a sudden. Commodities also perform in such a manner others claim are manipulations.
Behavioral economic theory, which many are just now starting to realize, states that markets trade on anticipation, and not necessarily on facts — buy the rumor, sell the news. This is all behavior oriented. We panic not always understanding why, just following the herd. Investing becomes a herd mentality or behavioral economics.
This entry was posted in Basic Concepts, Q&A and tagged behavioral economic theory, Efficient market theory by Martin Armstrong. Bookmark the permalink.
Posted on November 23, 2015 by Martin Armstrong
QUESTION: Hi,
Thanks for a great blog.
Mr. Armstrong,
I´d like to know your opinion for efficient market hypothesis. Theory states it is impossible to beat the market because market efficiency. I know you disagree with that, but is there any theory which states that markets can´t be efficient? And what’s your opinion of behavioral finance theory?
Thank you,
Kind Regards,
IP
ANSWER: Efficient market theory does not work because markets always overshoot and undershoot. Markets can remain undervalued for decades as was the case for the Dow Jones between 1934 and 1985. Then they play catch-up all of a sudden. Commodities also perform in such a manner others claim are manipulations.
Behavioral economic theory, which many are just now starting to realize, states that markets trade on anticipation, and not necessarily on facts — buy the rumor, sell the news. This is all behavior oriented. We panic not always understanding why, just following the herd. Investing becomes a herd mentality or behavioral economics.
This entry was posted in Basic Concepts, Q&A and tagged behavioral economic theory, Efficient market theory by Martin Armstrong. Bookmark the permalink.
» utube MM&C 10/17/24 MM&C News Reporting - Iraq Dinar Updates 10/16/2024
» Aides CUT OFF Interview as Kamala Harris BOMBS on Fox News
» Trump's women's voters town hall oct 16-24
» MM&C 10/16/24 Iraq Increases Reserves at IMF by 50%
» MM&C 10/15/24 US Senate enters the line of pressure on the Central Bank of Iraq
» utube MM&C 10/15/24 Attention to Valuation-Revaluation of Currency-IMF-WB-Viewpoints
» Trade Bank of Iraq announces the imminent opening of Al-Saydiyah and Al-Samawah branches
» Finance launches third issue of government bonds “Enjaz” for public subscription
» Washington: We support Iraq’s economic reform agenda, updating the budget and enhancing transparency
» Muqtada al-Sadr: German Foreign Minister must retract her statements supporting the killing of civil
» About $270 million in sales from the Central Bank of Iraq at today's auction
» Oil Ministry: Iraq is one of the worst violators of gas flaring rules
» Al-Sudani chairs a meeting to follow up on efforts to develop the work of the government banking sec
» Al-Sudani stresses the importance of banking reform in enhancing citizen confidence and cooperation
» BRICS currency.. Government advisor: A global monetary and financial system is about to be born
» Iraq imports 17% of Jordanian food industry products
» MP: 3 Iraqi messages at the International Conference of Speakers of Parliaments in Geneva
» The Minister of Oil dismisses the Director General of the North Oil Company from his position
» Nechirvan Barzani calls on Baghdad not to be afraid of arming the Peshmerga: They are defending Iraq
» Two waste sites identified for use in energy generation in Baghdad
» EU seeks to build economic corridor with Gulf states
» Industry announces obligating brick factories to switch to gas instead of black oil
» Iraq ranks third in real estate purchases in Türkiye during the month
» The President of the Republic discusses the investment situation in the country
» Iraq reconstruction projects before Arab ministers
» Al-Sudani: The government has regained the confidence of citizens
» Major government campaign to combat environmental pollution
» The food basket and care increased the citizen’s share of the GDP.
» Economic Contradictions: Argentina as a Model
» Malians: No significant impact of dollar's rise in markets
» Calls to speed up the establishment of the {Bank of the Poor}
» Today.. The Kurdistan government announces a list of September salaries
» Al-Sudani pledges to adopt a 5-dimensional "integrated strategy" to support Diyala
» Barzani and Erdogan discuss the development road project
» The Presidency of the Republic calls for submitting applications regarding death sentences that do n
» Iraq is heading to import gas from deep in Asia
» They brought in about 4 billion dollars.. Iran receives more than 4 million tourists, led by Iraq, i
» Will "Turkmen gas" change the reality of electricity in Iraq?
» Politician: US Ambassador Failed to Create Western Veto on Parliament Laws
» White House adopts hotline with Baghdad in preparation for indirect negotiations with Tehran
» Deputy Minister of Oil publishes phrases for unknown reasons on his Facebook account
» He inaugurated and announced strategic projects and issued 3 important decisions.. Dimensions of Al-
» The trial period for raising the prices of improved gasoline has ended, and the amount of revenues i
» Iraq is the fourth in the world in violating “Internet freedom” during 2024
» Parliament Speaker Crisis Looms.. Coordination Framework Agrees to Support Al-Mashhadani
» Al-Sudani Party: Parliament fully supports the Prime Minister
» Kurdistan Finance Deposits More Than 77 Billion in Non-Oil Revenues into Baghdad Treasury
» Causing environmental pollution.. Closure of 30 metal smelting sites east of Baghdad
» Traffic announces the imminent start of issuing license plates for taxis, trucks and bicycles
» A huge fire devours a hypermarket in Baghdad
» Planning: The general census will collect accurate information on employees in the public and privat
» The Commission announces its full readiness to hold the Kurdistan Regional Parliament elections
» The Coordination Framework agrees to support Al-Mashhadani for the presidency of Parliament
» Sunni political meeting to discuss general amnesty and the issue of the position of the Speaker of P
» Petroleum Products: The percentage of imports of derivatives decreased to 50 percent
» "Medicines in Iraq" .. Talk about smuggled treatments and the absence of a pharmaceutical policy
» Dollar exchange rate drops on Thursday morning
» "Suspicion" in Karbala Refinery: Failure to train Iraqi cadres.. Korean will renew the operating con
» Parliamentary Committee Talks About Economic Reform Law: It Reached Parliament Months Ago
» New Study Talks About an American Crime: Uranium Fingerprint in the Blood of Iraqis
» Electoral silence in Kurdistan before stormy vote
» Special voting for Kurdistan elections starts tomorrow and the commission announces its readiness
» Iraq's 2025 budget returns to the forefront, so what are the demands?
» great interview President Trump's Interview with Bloomberg at The Economic Club of Chicago
» Foreign remittance sales increase by 97% at Central Bank auction
» Al-Maliki invites international companies to invest in agriculture in Iraq
» MP urges Sunni forces to decide on Parliament Speakership
» Al-Sudani is upset with the procrastination and threatens to withdraw the Australian hospital projec
» The Coordination Framework agrees to support Al-Mashhadani for the presidency of Parliament and pass
» Finance Minister and US Ambassador Discuss Government Efforts to Achieve Economic Reforms
» Parliamentary Services: Nearly 80% of waste landfill sites do not have environmental approvals
» "The rise of the dollar is not the reason".. An expert reveals the reasons for the rise in meat pric
» Al-Sudani lists the implementation of 99 schools in Diyala with funding from this party
» Al-Furatain Bloc: Al-Sudani's government is working to complete all service projects on time
» The Central Bank reveals the percentage of gold in Iraq's foreign currency reserves
» Rusafa is cleaner than Karkh.. Analysis of the air pollution index in Baghdad
» Medical complex for the treatment of psychological disorders and drug addiction
» Toxic waste
» Al-Sudani: We have started to address environmental pollution
» Opening of Bastora Dam in Erbil
» A move to build hospitals to treat mental disorders
» Al-Naili to {Sabah}: Starting to establish the Martyrs Fund
» National Lending Strategy
» Exporting aviation fuel... a new step towards diversifying revenues
» Oil falls, OPEC cuts growth forecast
» Foreign Minister leaves Baghdad on a European tour that begins with a visit to Ireland and ends in F
» Launching of the activities of the international scientific conference under the slogan "Development
» Parliamentary recommendations to update the proposed law on the organization of trade unions for wor
» Minister of Finance stresses the importance of partnership with the United States to achieve sustain
» Minister of Transport supervises the submersion of concrete pieces of the submerged tunnel in the Gr
» The Parliamentary Oil Committee meets with the Minister of Electricity to explain the mechanisms for
» MP calls for electing a chairman for the Nineveh Investment Commission
» The Council of Ministers decides to appoint 7 general managers in various ministries
» Transport issues clarification regarding a photo of its Minister with the Minister of Oil: Private v
» Barzani heads to Ankara tomorrow carrying 6 files
» Al-Sudani puts major countries before their responsibilities
» Iraqi oil suffers heavy losses in third session of the week
» Al-Hakim calls for greater attention to food security and agricultural production