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Before it is too late .. Do rentier states succeed in economic diversification ??
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Still's disease (rentier state) is spread in a number of oil-producing countries, including the Gulf states, as well as Iraq, these countries that rely on the collection of imports on one major source is oil, discovered now after this (the long journey with the sale of oil), it is a mistake the dependence on oil as the main source of imports, after being hit by falling oil prices in the whole world crisis, and threatened their economies to collapse, began considering alternatives and additional sources to increase its resources, in an attempt - may be a likelihood of success Kulail- they came late and under compulsion did not come for the planning prior.
If these countries became aware of diversifying sources of income before the crisis, it would have made significant achievements, but they are under enormous pressure may be prone to failure in this endeavor, was seen as the International Monetary Fund said the Gulf countries to diversify their sources of revenue and shrinking expenses in order to cope with the continuing the drop in oil prices. The fund said that the outlook for economic growth in the six Gulf Cooperation Council countries (Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Oman and Qatar) this year will not exceed 1.8 percent after it was 3.3 percent in 2015.
Note that a change in the economic policy of the rents to multiple sources is not easy, and can not be where success is guaranteed if they do not take the time adequate space for cured and success, either if it came under having the success chances may be slim, especially since the official at the International Monetary Fund, had confirmed that "diversify economies that rely on a single commodity like oil is not an easy task, and to see it as a permanent challenge in the coming years", in reference to the Gulf countries that make up the oil revenues relative to each bulk of its GDP. Quoting the other hand, that these countries, which are linked its currency to the US dollar to maintain this link being "served the Gulf Cooperation Council to a large extent."
The looming is another problem associated with the movement of money and foreign currency and a link to the currencies of some oil-producing countries to the US dollar which imposes low oil prices put pressure on the policy of the Gulf states to link their national currencies exchange rate to the US dollar price, but it is unlikely to lead to break this link, according to the analysts say. And among the six GCC countries, linking Bahrain, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE national currencies to the dollar, while Kuwait links its dinar to a basket of currencies including the dollar. But with the loss of oil more than two-thirds of its value in less than two years, it has become increasingly doubtful feasibility of keeping the monetary policy began, especially since the head of research at Kuwait Financial Centre, or. R. Raghu says that "to maintain the fixed exchange rate (the dollar) is expensive on the central bank must be ready to buy or sell currency on the open market to maintain the link, which could lead to dwindling reserves of foreign currencies." He adds that "oil exports, which provide some 80 percent of government revenues, have fallen almost 70 percent since mid-2014, making installation of the currency exchange rate is weak because it reduces the foreign currency reserves."
And between currency subordination to the dollar, and rely fully alum on oil as the sole source of revenue, many oil-producing countries suffer from economic decline sharply, trying to stop various actions, the Kuwaiti official said that his country is a member of OPEC is seeking to reduce its budget dependence on oil to only 60 percent by 2020 instead of about 93 percent now. Said Khalid Abdul-Sahib Mahdi Secretary-General of the Supreme Council for Planning and Development The current five-year plan, which began in fiscal year 2015-2016 and ending in 2019-2020 aims to diversify income sources through the establishment of a number of development projects that increase state revenues and reduce dependence on oil, but to what extent can succeed such plans, which came under pressure from the financial crisis caused by falling oil prices ??.
Do you adapt the Gulf states with low oil prices?
In this context, the IMF said that the Gulf countries to diversify their sources of revenue and shrinking expenses in order to cope with the continuing decline in oil prices. The fund said that the outlook for economic growth in the six Gulf Cooperation Council countries (Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Oman and Qatar) this year will not exceed 1.8 percent after it was 3.3 percent in 2015. The Regional Director of the Fund in the Middle East Masood Ahmed "with the continuing decline in oil prices (this year), we may see a drop of oil export revenues of approximately a hundred billion dollars (98 billion euros) or more."
Ahmed added another in Dubai where a report presented to the IMF on regional economic prospects that "the effect this will have not only financial, but also includes the economy," the Gulf Cooperation Council. The IMF cited that oil prices have fallen by about seventy percent since mid-2014 to approximately forty dollars a barrel, pointing out that the markets expect a rise in prices is limited to up to fifty dollars a barrel by the end of this decade. He predicted that the growing Saudi economy, the largest in the Arab world, the pace of 1.2 percent this year, compared with 3.4 percent in 2015. The rate of growth in the UAE will decline from 3.9 percent last year to 2.4 percent in 2016.
The IMF report warned that Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and Oman will be forced to "borrow significantly in the form of" Between 2016 and 2021, under the financial needs exceed cash reserves, according to AFP. And forced the deterioration of oil prices, the Gulf states to take unprecedented measures included reducing fuel subsidies and the imposition of new indirect taxes. Well, it was across the major economic projects.
And displays the Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman Monday on a long-term plan to diversify the Saudi economy, the resources that are still largely dependent on oil.
Ahmed said the Gulf states "to continue the measures taken to reduce expenditure and re-correction and to find revenue (new.), Such as the value added tax." He explained that this tax will add 1.5 percent to the gross domestic product, "What can be applied by 2018, and this is what we hope will do." He pointed out that similar measures will take years for their application, and required from the authorities that "implemented in the form of a permanent" by providing the necessary institutional framework.
Ahmed added that some Gulf states might do this in stages, thanks to the "comfortable fiscal surplus," which accumulated over the years in light of rising oil prices. In addition to restoring the balance to the budgets of states, the private sector in his view, continues to develop himself to secure jobs note that he is slowing down because of lower overhead. "The big challenge is to lend dynamism to the private sector", stressing the need to go young job seekers to this sector, rather than to seek public office.
Official at the International Monetary Fund said that "diversify economies that rely on one such as oil commodity is not an easy task ... and to see it as a permanent challenge in the coming years", in reference to the Gulf countries that make up the oil revenues relative to each major section of GDP. Quoting the other hand, that these countries, which are linked its currency to the US dollar to maintain this link being "served the Gulf Cooperation Council to a large extent."
"That provides a margin of stability to the beat changed many factors, including oil prices."
Saudi Arabia will announce the long-term vision to diversify its economy, which reliable sources in great shape on oil. Ahmed said "We are waiting impatiently for this vision," adding that the project reflects "an ambitious strategy aimed not only at balancing the budget in the UK in the next five years, but also to lay the economy does not have to depend a great deal of oil."
Gulf states will borrow $ 390 billion
In the same context, an economic report predicted that borrows the Gulf Cooperative Council (GCC) even $ 390 billion by the year 2020 to finance the deficit in their budgets in light of the sharp decline in oil prices. Expected economic report released Sunday from the Kuwait Financial Center ( "Center"), to borrow the Gulf Cooperative Council (GCC) even $ 390 billion by the year 2020 to finance the deficit in their budgets, in light of the sharp decline in oil prices, the main source of revenue. The report stated that it is expected that the six countries recorded GCC deficit of $ 318 billion in 2015 and 2016.
It is likely that these countries borrow between $ 285 billion and 390 billion until the year 2020. The public finances came under the Gulf Cooperation Council (Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain and Oman), under great pressure by the loss of a barrel of oil more than two-thirds of its value since mid-year 2014. The oil revenues make up more than 80 percent of the incomes of these countries by the low prices. "The Center" in his report that Gulf states will face a fiscal deficit, either through borrowing or through the use of large financial reserves.
And borrowed Saudi Arabia last year's $ 26 billion from local banks, and used about $ 100 billion of fiscal reserves which recorded $ 732 billion year-end 2014, according to AFP. And it announced the Saudi Ministry of Finance at the end of the month of February last recorded a deficit of $ 87 billion in the 2016 budget, the kingdom plans to re subsidies on basic products Kalmntjat petroleum, water and electricity evaluation.
The ministry said the spending in the budget of 2016 of 840 billion riyals (224 billion dollars), compared with revenues of 513 billion riyals (137 billion dollars), the lowest level since 2009. The year will be deficit financing, "according to the plan takes into account the best financing options available, and that domestic and external borrowing and not adversely affect the liquidity of the local banking sector to ensure the financing of private sector activity growth. " With the exception of Bahrain and Oman, the Gulf countries enjoy enormous financial reserves and low levels of public debt, enabling it ndash; according to report- access to large domestic and international loans.
Recorded GCC deficit is estimated at $ 160 billion last year, compared with a surplus in the budget is estimated at 220 billion in 2012. The "center" predicted in a report issued in February, that the Gulf of public debt to rise to 59 percent of the GDP in five years, noting that the rate of year-end 2015 was 30 percent of gross only. For his part, International Monetary Fund urged Gulf states, which rely heavily on oil revenues, diversifying sources of income, especially in light of expectations consistently low energy prices at current levels for years.
25 Gulf banks under review
For its part, Moody's Investors Service credit rating it placed the long-term credit ratings for the twenty-five banks in the Gulf region under review for a possible downgrade, while Bank of Bahrain confirmed the rating with giving it a negative outlook. This came after Moody's placed the credit ratings of the governments of Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates on the fourth of March, under review for a possible downgrade.
Moody's said in a report of the main reasons behind the new procedures concerning the ratings of banks is "a likely drop in the creditworthiness of the governments of oil-exporting countries," indicating the possibility of weakening the ability of these governments to provide support to banks in times of crisis as well as the governments have become more selective in offering such support. Moody's noted that the twenty-five banks that put the long classifications term or risk assessments corresponding parties, or both, under review for possible reduction of five banks in Bahrain and two in Kuwait and two in diameter and 11 banks in Saudi Arabia, along with five banks in the United Arab Emirates, according to Reuters.
Among the banks affected by the new procedures Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank, Dubai Islamic Bank and Al Hilal Bank and Al-Rajhi Bank and the Bahrain Development Bank and Saudi Fransi Bank and Kuwait Finance House (KFH) and Gulf International Bank and Bank of Abu Dhabi National National Bank of Kuwait and Qatar National Bank. It also affected by Samba Financial Group, Saudi British Bank (SABB) and Bank of Bahrain Islamic Bank, Arab National Bank, the country and the Bank of the island and the National Commercial Bank and Riyad Bank, Saudi Investment Bank, Commercial Bank of Qatar and Union National Bank and Arab Banking Corporation (ABC).
Deterioration of Gulf currencies linked to the dollar
In the context of the asymptotic low oil prices put pressure on the policy of the Gulf states to link their national currencies to the US dollar exchange rate, but it is unlikely to lead to break this link, according to the analysts say.And among the six GCC countries, linking Bahrain, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE national currencies to the dollar, while Kuwait links its dinar to a basket of currencies including the dollar. But with the loss of oil more than two-thirds of its value in less than two years, it has become increasingly doubtful feasibility of keeping the monetary policy began. And the imposition of declining price of oil, the main source of revenue for the Gulf States, great pressure on public finances, noting that this decline is associated with an improvement in the US economy and a rise in the value of the dollar with the possibility of raising interest him.
To maintain their dollar pegs, it resorted to all the Gulf states except Qatar, to raise interest rates in December, in line with what he had done the Federal Reserve the US to raise interest rate on the dollar, despite the fact that the economic situation for the Gulf States would have required a reduction of benefits. The Gulf states are currently facing the dilemma of keeping the pegs to the dollar, or the adoption of a moving exchange rate will lead to a devaluation of the national currencies over the US currency, according to AFP.
Says head of research at Kuwait Financial Centre, or. R. Raghu "maintain a fixed exchange rate (the dollar) is expensive. The Central Bank must be ready to buy or sell currency on the open market to maintain the link, which could lead to dwindling reserves of foreign currencies." He adds, "oil exports, which provide some 80 percent of government revenues, have fallen almost 70 percent since mid-2014, making installation of the currency exchange rate is weak because it reduces the foreign currency reserves."
With the exception of Bahrain and Oman, the GCC countries have huge cash reserves constitute a guarantee for the cost of the currency peg policy. But some experts predict only able Gulf states, especially Saudi Arabia, to keep the currency install policy on the dollar to no end. And the director of sovereign risk analysis in the "IHS Global Insight," said Jan Randolph contradictory performance of the US economy and the economies of the Gulf states, will increase the pressure on the dollar peg policy.
According to Randolph, it is expected that the monetary policies vary too, between "stimulus in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) (reduced benefits), as opposed to tightening in the United States." The analyst refers to the need for GCC countries local currencies bit weak and low interest rates to bolster their economies, particularly the non-oil export sector development. The longer the duration of the contrast between the US economy and the economies of the Gulf states, "Whenever Pat transition to a flexible exchange rate policy more logical." But the price of the policy of installing the positives: It provides financial stability and confidence in cash for the Gulf States in light of the unrest in the region. This policy also helps contain inflation and strengthen foreign investors' confidence.
Previously, the oil-producing countries such as Russia, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan and Nigeria, that has reduced the value of their currencies, which contributed to raising the value of oil Erdat in local currencies, and helped in the reduction of the budget deficit. But such a move would be too costly. She said the agency "Standard & Poor's" credit rating in a recent report, said the devaluation "usually leads to high inflation and often causes the reduction of standard of living, which could threaten social stability."
Analysts warn that if he decided to edit their currencies Gulf states, some of them may lose up to twenty percent of their value. This will help to enhance the value of oil revenues and cash reserves of the GCC countries in parallel with their local currencies, according to Sebastien Henin, head of asset management in the "National Investor" Abu Dhabi Foundation. This may lead to positive results on the hospitality and tourism sector in Dubai, as the emirate will become less expensive for tourists and business more attractive to non-oil-related, according to Henan. Therefore, analysts predict that the United Arab Emirates the first country to abandon its currency peg (DRAM) against the dollar. But analysts warn of another risk associated with liberalization of the exchange rate, a prospect out of capital from the Gulf.
Raghu says that this could happen, "because investors will want to transfer their assets to other markets. This will increase volatility and financial uncertainty in the region." Raghu and that is to put an end to link Gulf currencies to the dollar only happen if it was a "last step."
And sees Mohamed Zidan, chief market strategist at "Think Forex", based in Dubai, the Gulf currencies are pegged to the dollar, "costly and hurt the economy." He adds "GCC defend (this policy) offline for stability, but if the low price of oil continues, will choose the float system is set in five years."
Kuwaiti attempts to reduce dependence on oil
For his part, Kuwaiti official said that his country is a member of OPEC is seeking to reduce its budget dependence on oil to only 60 percent by 2020 instead of about 93 percent now. Said Khalid Abdul-Sahib Mahdi Secretary-General of the Supreme Council for Planning and Development The current five-year plan, which began in fiscal year 2015-2016 and ending in 2019-2020 aims to diversify income sources through the establishment of a number of development projects that increase state revenues and reduce dependence on oil.
"The state budget depends on revenues of 93 percent oil. This must stop. The target of 60 percent over the allocated to the development plan period of time." And damaged Kuwait, which depends on oil revenues as a source of quasi-single to finance its budget due to the collapse of the price level of $ 110 a barrel nearly two years ago to around $ 30 a barrel in early 2016.
And to stimulate oil prices fall dramatically Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) to move toward diversifying the economy and reduce dependence on oil as Saudi Arabia's largest oil exporter in the world in April, "declared vision of Saudi Arabia in 2030" and that a package of economic and social policies designed to liberalize the Kingdom of relying on oil exports include . On the possibility of achieving this ambitious goal Kuwait and reduce dependence on oil Mehdi said, his voice cracking with confidence, "yes. (I'm) very optimistic. I see that there is a possibility .. it is a matter of need of our effort." And it launched the current development plan of the ambitious vision of the State of Kuwait to be converted into a financial and commercial center of attraction for global investment and restore the role of the private sector as the leader of economic activity, according to Reuters.
Kuwait relies in making this vision a concrete reality on the major project is to exploit the five Kuwaiti islands located in the Gulf in the east coast of Kuwait and converted to a free zone integrated with special legislation are flexible and serve as an economic and cultural gateway to the State of Kuwait. In January, Park Emir of Kuwait Sheikh Sabah Al-Ahmad Al-Jaber Al-Sabah of this project, which includes Failaka and Bubiyan and Warba islands and Miskan and Auhah Island, which account for about five percent of the area of the State of Kuwait, referring to the start of the implementation of the project.
Mahdi said that the cost of investment in this project is about $ 125 billion, indicating that the feasibility projects these islands studies will be ready in mid-2017 and expected to be fully completed by 2030. "The next step is to provide advisory and feasibility studies and engineering plans and other identifying investment laws and mechanisms and legislative requirements necessary to make this project reality. " "We must identify the investment map of the project, according to its feasibility studies come .. It is natural that is resorting to global expertise in order to obtain insights and investment concepts and tools (new) .. may invent new tools." He stressed that the current phase is the "detailed studies" where they can lure new offers of international advisers to study the project and planning, or refer the matter to the McKinsey phase of the project. Asked about whether the new project will follow the lead of other Gulf states Mahdi she said "everything in Kuwait (different) .. my brother we're talking about Kuwait Her creative ideas .. may be late, but in the end we will reach and we'll beat."
Mehdi said that oil projects that are currently engaged by Kuwait also aims to diversify the sources of income, including environmental fuel project and the Al-Zour refinery. The aim of the fuel project Environmental to develop refineries of Al-Ahmadi and Mina Abdullah subsidiaries National Petroleum Corporation Kuwait also includes the construction of 39 new units and modernization of seven units and the closure of seven other units with a focus on producing high-value products such as diesel and kerosene for export.
It seeks Kuwait through project-Zour refinery, which will be the largest in the world, which signed its contracts in last October at a cost of 4.87 billion dinars (16 billion dollars) and refining capacity of 615 thousand barrels per day to raise the refining capacity of the country to 1.4 million barrels per day from 936 thousand barrels Currently. In January, Chief Executive Officer, said in KNPC Mohammed Ghazi Al-Mutairi said his country is in the process of creating a new oil company be under the umbrella of the Kuwait Petroleum Corporation and undertake tasks run Zour refinery complex new Petrochemical is expected that this integrated project is to be the largest of its kind in the Middle District East.
At the time, al-Mutairi said that the new company will be called (K BRC) will be responsible for project-Zour refinery and petrochemical complex and LNG facility which is currently adopted Kuwait receiver. Mahdi said that the new petrochemical project that aims to "promote the petrochemical industry and its products will reduce the country's dependence on oil and there will be new revenue."
He explained that the project is now "in the process of consulting and feasibility studies to determine the best techniques economically feasible .. and determine its business model" and determine the type of feedstock, which Sastamlh after it was allocated area of land him near the Al-Zour refinery. He explained that there are two options for the model project work, one that holds the government fully built and the other to be implemented in accordance with the model of partnership between the public and private sectors, which is used in a number of projects currently.
The model includes a partnership between the public and private sectors in Kuwait establish a public shareholding company shall carry out these projects, while run by the strategic partner where they are providing goods and services-producing state in exchange for money paid by the government for these companies in accordance with the contract between the two companies. According to the law passed in 2014 and came into force in 2015, 50 percent of the shares of these companies is allocated for Kuwaiti nationals, while specialization ratio between 26 and 44 percent to a strategic investor may be Kuwaiti or foreign, or an alliance among several investors, the government owns the remaining percentage ranging from 6 and 24 percent.
Corporate profits in Kuwait at the mercy of taxes
For his part, Kuwaiti Finance Minister Anas Saleh during a press conference that the Cabinet approved a plan for economic and financial reform include the government's intention to impose taxes by ten percent on corporate profits. Saleh added that the plan approved by the Board include re-some public goods and services pricing and re-pricing of the exploitation of state land, but gave no details. And ensure that the program presented by the Minister of Finance the introduction of a tax on business profits and companies at a fixed rate of ten percent "after a thorough assessment of the impact on the consumer and on the competitiveness of the business sector."
He explained that the imposition of the tax legislation requires the approval of Parliament first and then applied two years later. The program included increasing the contribution of the private sector in economic activity and the launch of the Supreme Council for the allocation of capacities through the amendment of the privatization law and lift the ban on the privatization of the oil industry and the Annexes to education and health. Saleh said the government is working on the "rehabilitation of public projects are candidates for privatization on a commercial basis in preparation for submission to the public citizens participate in it .. and remove all restrictions on private foreign direct investment and the opening of investment sectors in front of him, especially in the non-oil sector and the liberalization of licensing systems and the provision of logistics facilities," according to Reuters. He explained that the candidate for privatization projects include airports, ports and terminals Foundation power generation and distribution and some facilities and activities of the Kuwait Petroleum Corporation added to the Centers for sanitation and management of schools and government hospitals.
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