GardaWorld Weekly Security Report

GardaWorld Weekly Security Report
September 2, 2017 in Security, Weekly Security Update
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Prepared by GardaWorld’s Risk Analysis Team in Iraq, this essential report includes short- and medium-term outlooks on the security situation, reports and commentary on recent significant events, and a detailed overview of developments across the country.

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Weekly Iraq .Xplored report
2 September 2017
Prepared by Risk Analysis Team, Iraq
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Weekly Iraq .Xplored Report
2 September 2017
TABLE OF CONTENTS
TABLE OF CONTENTS .......................................................................................................................................... 2 ACTIVITY MAP .................................................................................................................................................... 3 OUTLOOK ............................................................................................................................................................. 4
Short term outlook ............................................................................................................................................. 4 Medium to long term outlook............................................................................................................................ 4
SIGNIFICANT EVENTS...................................................................................................................................... 5
Abadi announces full liberation of Nineveh province from IS....................................................................... 5
IS threatens attacks to mark Eid....................................................................................................................... 5
Iraq angered by transfer of IS militants from Lebanese border to east Syria.............................................. 5
THREAT MATRIX ................................................................................................................................................ 5 LATEST DEVELOPMENTS ............................................................................................................................... 5
Political................................................................................................................................................................ 5
Security ............................................................................................................................................................... 7
Foreign Affairs.................................................................................................................................................. 10
Humanitarian .................................................................................................................................................... 10
Economy ........................................................................................................................................................... 10
WEEKLY OPERATIONAL ASSESSMENT .................................................................................................. 12
Countrywide Military/Security Situation ........................................................................................................ 12
ACRONYM LIST ................................................................................................................................................ 19 GARDAWORLD INFORMATION SERVICES .............................................................................................. 20 GARDAWORLD.................................................................................................................................................. 20
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Disclaimer: The information and opinions expressed in this Report are the views of GardaWorld and constitute a judgment as at the date of the Report and are subject to change without notice. The information and opinions expressed in this Report have been formed in good faith on the basis of the best information and intelligence available at the time of writing, but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. GardaWorld accepts no liability arising out of or in connection with the comments made or the information set out in this Report and the reader is advised that any decision taken to act or not to act in reliance on this Report is taken solely at the reader’s own risk. In particular, the comments in this Report should not be construed as advice, legal or otherwise.
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2 September 2017
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ACTIVITY MAP

Weekly Iraq .Xplored Report
2 September 2017
OUTLOOK
Short term outlook
 The likelihood of attempted high-profile attacks into population centres in the north, west and capital regions remains elevated as IS reverts to an insurgency following territorial losses. These will likely be constrained by security footprint, particularly in Baghdad, with attacks most likely to strike secondary or opportunistic targets in outlying districts. IS may also attempt to increase their attack tempo in eastern Anbar, with the cities of Ramadi and Fallujah likely to be key targets for high-profile attacks.
 Two SVBIED attacks in Basra province on May 19, and SVIED attacks in Karbala and Babel on June 9 exhibit IS retains intent and capability for attacks in the southern provinces. Additionally an SVBIED attack occurred in northern Babel on July 26 targeting a PMU checkpoint. The region remains assessed as non-permissive for IS to significantly escalate operations due to demographics, with the few Sunni militant sympathisers in the region remaining isolated.
 The security footprint and other local factors in the central and southern regions, particularly in Baghdad, will severely constrain IS ability to mount sustained complex attacks of the type reported in the north and the west of the country. The threat from low-level IED and SAF attacks remains. There may be an increased level of ISF deliberate actions to disrupt and deter insurgent and criminal activity during the Mosul operation, especially in the northern areas of Baghdad province.
Medium to long term outlook
 In the absence of concerted engagement with the Sunni population in areas currently under IS control, it is possible that the post-IS security environment will be characterized by sectarian flash points between radical Sunni tribes and Shia militia groups especially in Nineveh province and western Kirkuk. Limited reporting has already indicated displaced Sunni families being advised or directed to leave Kirkuk. It is almost certain that in areas retaken by ISF, an insurgency will be established by Sunni insurgents including remaining IS affiliates.
 Low-level incidents related to criminality, personal disputes and tribal tensions are likely to continue in Basra and the southern provinces in general. This is assessed to be facilitated by large segments of the security forces currently being involved in operations to retake IS-held areas of the country. In the long-term, there will be tensions driven by the return of Shia militia factions, who will expect material and social rewards for the contribution in the national campaign against IS.
 While operations in the north have refocused attention away from Abadi’s reform program, the risk of politically motivated demonstrations against corruption in front of government institutions remains extant.
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SIGNIFICANT EVENTS
Abadi announces full liberation of Nineveh province from IS
Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi on August 31 announced the full liberation of Nineveh province from IS militants. Abadi said in a statement that Iraqi forces have liberated all the areas in Tal Afar and Ayadiya. “We promise the people of Iraq we will continue with the same determination to liberate every inch of Iraq’s land and its deserts,” Abadi said.
IS threatens attacks to mark Eid
IS has issued videos threatening attacks to mark the occasion of Eid al-Adha. A video produced by IS's so- called Raqqa province featured a cast of militants who were fighting to defend Raqqa city. They issued threats against the group's multiple enemies, hoping to celebrate Eid by slaughtering infidels.
Iraq angered by transfer of IS militants from Lebanese border to east Syria
Iraq's Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi has criticised the ceasefire deals that saw hundreds of Islamic State militants evacuated from an enclave on the Lebanese-Syrian border. The militants were given safe passage to the Syrian province of Deir al-Zor. Abadi called the arrangement “alarming”.
THREAT MATRIX
Region KRG* North** Baghdad Anbar South***
Political
Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate
Minimal
Terrorism Militancy
Low Low
High-Extreme High Moderate Moderate
Crime K&R
Low Low
High High
Moderate
Moderate
High
Low
High
Moderate Moderate
High High
Moderate
Extreme
Moderate
* ** ***
KRG – Dohuk, Erbil & Sulaymaniyah
North – Nineveh, Salah ad-Din & Diyala
South – Babil, Wasit, Karbala, Najaf, Qadisiyah, Dhi Qar, Muthanna, Maysan & Basra
Threat Scale
Low
High
LATEST DEVELOPMENTS
Political
IHEC nominees come from different sectarian backgrounds
According to latest reporting, nominees for the Independent High Electoral Commission (IHEC) that will oversee the forthcoming provincial and parliamentary elections in April 2018 have now been selected. It was reported that for the first time in 13 years, the members are from differing sectarian backgrounds. According to the Baghdad Post, who obtained a copy of the independent electoral commission members' names, the nine selections all come from different backgrounds and ethnicities.
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The members are the following:
 Safaa al-Jaberi (Dawaa Party)
 Jaafar al-Muzani (Sadrist Movement)
 Moutamed al-Musawi (Dawaa Party)
 Saad al-Abdali (supreme council)
 Adel Aidan (Moustaqiloun)
 Hatem al-Hazal (Iraqi Forces Union)
 Maan Abd Hantoush (al-Iraqiya)
 Fulo Sinjari (Democratic Patriotic Alliance of Kurdistan)
 Diar Deski (Democratic Patriotic Alliance of Kurdistan)
Spokesman confirms Sadr’s Europe tour plans, Egypt visit
A spokesperson has confirmed reports of an intended tour by influential Shia cleric Muqtada al-Sadr in Europe, including a meeting with Pope Francis of Vatican. Jaafar Mosawi, a spokesperson for the Sadrist Movement, said that Sadr will visit the Vatican responding to an official invitation, and had also received an invitation from Egypt. Mosawi told press that Sadr will embark on the Vatican visit within the coming few days. “Sadr seeks openness to the countries that want Iraq’s best and abstain from interfering in its domestic affairs,” he stated. According to reports, Sadr is preparing for a tour including France, Germany, Belgium, Italy and the Vatican, and would hold meetings with senior officials at those countries. The purpose of the visit, will not differ from that of his recent Arab region tour, focusing on Iraq’s openness to other countries and encouragement of investments in the war-torn country, especially in the reconstruction of terrorism-hit areas.
Governor of Anbar relieved of his post
A member of the Anbar provincial council, Sabah Karhout, announced on August 27 the approval of the Administrative Court of Justice for the firing of Anbar governor Suhaib al-Rawi, after the decision was made in a governorate session to relieve al-Rawi from his post over charges related to financial and administrative corruption. "The Administrative Court of Justice has approved the removal of Anbar governor Suhaib al-Rawi against the background of the Anbar province session in which the governor was deposed and the governorate will receive the official letter of approval," Karhout said in a statement. He added that Anbar province will open the post up for replacement nominations.
Hakim meets Basra’s new governor
The head of the Shia National Alliance bloc, Ammar al-Hakim has met with the new governor of Basra, Asad al- Eidani where he stressed the need to provide better services for the citizens in Basra and to work with the institutions of the province and with the political blocs in the province. During a meeting in the Basra Governor’s office, he called on the governor to "make efforts with the tribal institutions to end tribal conflicts and to make greater effort in imposing the law and to achieve security and bring investment to provide employment opportunities".
Integrity Commission to Issue New Arrest Warrants – Former Finance Minister sentenced in absentia
Iraq’s Integrity Commission is to issue new arrest warrants against governors and heads of provincial councils soon, MP Ali al-Bideri revealed on August 26. In a press statement, al-Bideri said that the commission will issue these arrest warrants against officials and governors in relation to corruption charges and allegations. However, he would not disclose their names for fear that they would flee the country. Public opinion, pressure and the upcoming elections has been a robust driver of the Integrity Commission’s recent increased activity, he noted.
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Security
Abadi announces full liberation of Nineveh province from IS
Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi on August 31 announced the full liberation of Nineveh province from IS militants. Abadi said in a statement that Iraqi forces have liberated all the areas in Tal Afar and Ayadiya. “We promise the people of Iraq we will continue with the same determination to liberate every inch of Iraq’s land and its deserts,” Abadi said. Iraqi President Fuad Masum has also congratulated his people for the recapture of Tal Afar saying "We salute commanders, officers and soldiers of our Armed Forces for their combat efficiency and their dedication to achieving this new historic victory".
IS threatens attacks to mark Eid
IS has issued videos threatening attacks to mark the occasion of Eid al-Adha. A video produced by IS's so- called Raqqa province featured a cast of militants who were fighting to defend Raqqa city. They issued threats against the group's multiple enemies, hoping to celebrate Eid by slaughtering infidels. An Eid video from IS's Deir al-Zour province praised recent IS-claimed attacks in Spain and Russia and urged more violence targeting "Jews" and "Crusaders" in their homeland to mark the event.
Iraqi forces kill 94 IS members in border area
The Iraqi Joint Operation Command has said that 94 IS have been killed in an operation that targeted their hideouts near the Syrian border. The War Media Cell said that the Interior Ministry, in coordination with the Iraqi Air Force, had carried out the operation on 29 August, targeting six IS locations in Qa'im, northwest of Baghdad near the border with Syria. "IS locations were completely destroyed. Two explosive-rigged vehicles coming from Albu-Kamal area in eastern Deir al-Zour in Syria were also destroyed," the statement added
Iraqi army prepares anti-IS offensive in Hawijah
The Iraqi army has said preparations are under way for a new offensive against IS in Hawijah district in the northern province of Kirkuk, according to press. Some units of pro-government and Shia-led Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF) were also deployed north of Salah al Din to participate in the operations to recapture the IS-held enclave, the reports also said. Meanwhile, US-led coalition air forces have carried out air strikes that targeted IS positions in Hawijah and also in Sharqat district in Salah al Din Province. Meanwhile, the Kirkuk Governor Najmaldin Karim has declared the province's readiness to receive displaced people after the start of the operations.
Leaflets dropped over Iraq's Hawijah to warn of military offensive
According to press reports, the Iraqi Air Force has dropped "millions" of leaflets over Hawijah district telling residents that a military offensive to dislodge IS militants from the area is imminent. Residents were asked to avoid IS positions in Hawijah, southwest of Kirkuk Province, according to the Iraqi Sumaria news outlet on 31 August. COMMENT: ‘It is unclear what ISF’s next target will be after Tal Afar. The Governor of Kirkuk continues to press the Iraqi government for action against Hawijah in order to negate the threat to Kirkuk, however, it is possible that the IS held towns of Anah, Rawah and Al Qaim in the Upper Euphrates river valley area will be the next focus for the ISF.’ COMMENT ENDS.
Iraq angered by transfer of IS militants from Lebanese border to east Syria
Iraq's Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi has criticised the ceasefire deals that saw hundreds of Islamic State militants evacuated from an enclave on the Lebanese-Syrian border. The militants were given safe passage to the Syrian province of Deir al-Zor. Abadi called the arrangement “alarming”. “We consider it an insult to the Iraqi people,” he said on August 29. “Transferring this number of terrorists over long distances to east Syria by the Iraqi border is unacceptable.” He added that he hoped Baghdad was consulted on the matter. “We are fighting the terrorists in Iraq. We don’t expel them to Syria; we kill them in Iraq,” Abadi said. The deal also sparked anger in Lebanon, especially after it was discovered that nine Lebanese soldiers who were abducted by IS in 2014 had likely been killed by the group. Meanwhile, Lebanon’s security chief Abbas Ibrahim defended the ceasefire
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agreement, saying security forces were not seeking revenge or bloodshed, but had set out to “liberate” Lebanese soil from IS militants and reveal the fate of the kidnapped soldiers.
Transfer of IS militants to Iraq border continues to cause regional condemnation
The deal struck between IS, the Lebanese Army and Hezbollah in Syria on August 27, which saw a ceasefire and the bus transfer of 308 IS militants with small arms from the Lebanese / Syrian border to the Iraqi border has continued to attract major criticism. Speaker of the House of Representatives Salem al-Jubouri rejected any agreement that would bring IS closer to its borders. "The federal government will take all the necessary measures to confront the repercussions of this agreement". Al-Jubouri directed the Security and Defence Committee to move quickly to investigate the facts and submit a detailed report explaining to the House of Representatives the repercussions of the agreement between Hezbollah and IS and its implications for the security and stability on the country.
Iraq denies acquaintance with IS evacuation deal, Maliki defends decision
Iraq has denied being informed about a deal to transfer members of IS from the Lebanese-Syrian border to a territory held by the jihadist group in eastern Syria, near the Iraqi border. In a statement on 1 September, government spokesman Saad al-Hadithi condemned the "fabricated news" reportedly circulated by an Iranian news agency and Al-Mayadin TV, which claimed that Iraq had been acquainted with the deal to move militants to Al-Bukamal area in Deir al-Zour region. "We categorically deny and denounce this false news and confirm that Iraq was not told or consulted about this deal," he said
Amaq video shows IS-held towns in western Iraq
IS has issued a video that aims to show it retains control of towns in western Anbar province in the aftermath of its reported loss of Tal Afar, which the group has not explicitly acknowledged. IS's news outlet Amaq posted a video that was said to feature footage from the towns of Ana and Rawa in western Anbar province near the border with Syria. The video showed life at mosques and markets and aspects of IS governance of the towns, intending to convey the impression that it was business as usual. IS also retains control of the border town of Qaim in Anbar province, as well as the district of Hawijah, located to the southwest of Kirkuk. On 31 August, Iraqi media reported that the Iraqi air force had dropped leaflets over Hawijah saying that a military offensive to oust IS from the area was imminent. Meanwhile, the Iraqi air force has reportedly killed scores of IS militants in air strikes on their positions in Al-Qa'im district, near the Syrian border. The army's War media Cell said that four IS positions in the western Anbar Province were targeted in the strikes, adding that more than 60 militants were killed and an arms depot was destroyed.
President Erdoğan hints at further operation into Syria and Iraq
Turkey is prepared to carry out further operations in Syria and Iraq following last year’s Euphrates Shield Operation, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has stated. “Despite the covert embargos and strikes on our country and our army by the hand of [the Fethullah Terrorist Organization] FETÖ, and the problems with our allies, there is no falling back in our plans, projects and operations. Especially in Syria and Iraq, we will not take a step back on any subject related to future of our nation and our brothers in the region. All options in the region are being taken into consideration,” Erdoğan said on Aug. 30, at a reception marking Turkey’s annual “Victory Day” at the Presidential Palace in Ankara.
IS Dispersing Funds to Maintain Operations after Defeat in Iraq and Syria
The Islamic State (IS) is spreading its money across various ventures and state lines to maintain its operation after the collapse of its self-proclaimed caliphate, according to reports. As the militant group’s territorial control crumbles in Iraq and Syria, the Financial Times reported IS “has been waging another, silent campaign: to make as much money as it can, as fast as it can, and get that money out” of areas it controls which are being targeted by coalition and government forces. The Times said “they’ll spread that money everywhere, to keep it working for the organisation long after the caliphate is gone.” With the continuous loss of territory and authority in Iraq and Syria, IS has threatened to focus its efforts on lone-wolf attacks carried out in Europe and other nations
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belonging to the anti-IS coalition. Europe has recently been put on high alert by Interpol as 173 suspected IS foreign fighters are believed to be planning attacks once they return to their home countries. Money flowing freely from its remaining strongholds to Europe or in between local cells could allow the group to launch further attacks.
IS will not return to Mosul while residents support authorities: Iraqi Army
The commander of the Iraqi army’s Nineveh Operations says that ISIS terrorists will not return to the Iraqi city of Mosul while its residents align themselves with the country's authorities. Brig. Gen. Najim Jubouri, the commander of the Iraqi army’s Nineveh Operations stated "We have left the communication [channels] between security forces and citizens and between security forces and the government from the other side. If such communication is preserved, IS will not return. And, frankly, people are absolutely against their [ISIS terrorists'] ideas" Jubouri said. However, Jubouri also added that militants of the IS group could return to Iraq after being defeated in Syria. "We fear that IS defeat in Syria will lead terrorists to return [to Iraq]," Jubouri said, stressing that it was strictly his personal opinion.
IS claims Baghdad car bombings
Islamic State has claimed responsibility for two VBIED attacks in Baghdad on August 27. The group's news outlet Amaq issued separate claims for the attacks. Amaq reported in the first claim "the killing of 25 Shia and wounding of about 40 others after a parked car was detonated in the fourth police area in south-western Baghdad". Shortly afterwards, Amaq reported that "the explosion of a booby-trapped car killed 21 Shia and injured about 30 others in the Abu Dasheer area in central Baghdad".
200 IS militants arrested among displaced civilians, north western Tal Afar
ISF have arrested 200 IS militants who were hiding among displaced civilians in northwest of Tal Afar, a commander has stated. Iraqi troops launched an attack against the Aiyadhiya region, which resulted in fierce clashes with IS and forced around 2,000 civilians to flee, arriving at Zimar axis in Sahl al-Maleh village on August 28. While checking the identities of the fleeing civilians, around 200 IS militants were found to be hiding among the displaced. Earlier on August 28, Popular Mobilization Units, along with the Iraqi Army managed to take over the “Ayyadiya farms” and the “Mohaled al-Khalaf” farmlands, east and south of the region where Iraqi commanders say the remaining militants are besieged.
Iraqi sentenced to death for "making toxic gas" for IS
Iraq's Central Criminal Court has sentenced an engineer to death on charges of making poisonous gases and chemical weapons for IS. "The defendant confessed that he developed and manufactured toxic gases for terrorist Daesh and that he used his own poultry farm for making rockets, weapons and gases", Abdul-Sattar al- Bayraqdar, the spokesman for the Supreme Judicial Council, said in a statement on August 27. The spokesman added that the court's ruling was based on the counter-terrorism law provisions.
Speaker Salim al-Jabouri says armed militias pose a threat to the state
The Speaker of the Iraqi Parliament Salim al-Jabouri called for the need to fight what he called “armed militias and gangs” stressing that they are a “threat” to the security and stability of the state. Speaking at a news conference on August 29, Al-Jabouri said: “Whatever is the affiliation and agenda of armed militias and criminal gangs, they pose a threat to the security and stability of the state and must therefore be confronted and fought”.
Only 7 Yezidis rescued from Tal Afar where 500 were once held
An official from the Iraqi Government office tasked with rescuing Yezidis enslaved by IS has said that only seven Yezidis have been freed during the eight-day operation that resulted in driving the extremist group from the largely Turkmen town of Tal Afar. It is feared that the extremist group may have transferred the Yezidis to areas under its control in Syria. Amin Khalat, working at the Iraqi Government-funded office in Duhok whose mission is to locate and rescue the Yezidis, told press that he had prior information that up to 500 Yezidis were in Tal Afar, many of them women and children.
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Foreign Affairs
Al-Maliki discusses bilateral relations with Iranian Ambassador
Vice President Nuri al-Maliki has held talks with the Iranian Ambassador to Iraq Iraj Masjedi on August 28 according to reports. "The two sides reviewed the bilateral relations between the neighbouring countries and means of their development, and also the desire to enhance cooperation and joint action to serve the interests of the two friendly peoples" a statement by Al- Maliki’s office said. Maliki stated that the coming months would be both important and difficult, with reference to the April 2018 provincial and parliamentary elections, stressing the need to adhere to constitutional deadlines and hold the elections on schedule.
French foreign, defence ministers arrive in Baghdad
French ministers of defence and foreign affairs Sylvie Goulard and Jean-Yves Le Drian have arrived in Baghdad on an official visit on 26 August. The Ministers met with Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi and discussed the ongoing operations against IS and also ways to improve economic and trade relations between France and Iraq. France is to grant a 430 million euro loan to Iraq whose economy has been weakened by low oil prices and its fight against IS. Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian made the announcement during talks in Baghdad with Iraq's Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi on August 26 and said the 430 million euros would be released before the end of 2017. "France was present from the beginning of the battles against Daesh and will be present as well during time of peace," said Le Drian, who was accompanied by Defence Minister Florence Parly. The loan is aimed at helping the war-torn country implement reforms, improve public services and boost the performance of its state enterprises. Le Drian also handed Abadi an invitation from French President Emmanuel Macron to visit Paris.
Humanitarian
Over 2 million Iraqi IDPs return home
Around 2.1 million Iraqi civilians have returned to their homes in the liberated areas of the country, the Iraqi government said on August 29. According to a spokesman for the Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi, the programs to rebuild the liberated areas and provide appropriate living conditions are largely responsible for the huge number of returning displaced civilians, and that the Iraqi authorities are committed to supporting all displaced families returning to their recently liberated homes, and ensuring their safe and secure return. He further explained that the government of Iraq is putting all efforts in providing the security and social environment and adequate services necessary for these families to make the transition.
Economy
Main Iraq-Jordan border crossing reopening for first time in 2 years
The main border crossing between Iraq and Jordan, Tureibil, will opened yesterday (August 30) for the first time since 2015 now that ISF have now taken control of the main highway to Baghdad from IS. Iraqi Prime Minister stated “I am pleased to announce the reopening of the Iraq/Jordan border crossing, which will increase bilateral ties significantly”. The Jordanians are also optimistic for the re-opening. “The opening of the crossing is of great importance to Jordan and Iraq,” said Jordan’s Interior Minister Ghaleb al-Zubi last week. “It’s a crucial artery. Jordan and Iraq have been discussing reopening it for a while now”. Meanwhile, US Special Presidential Envoy for the Global Coalition to defeat IS, Brett McGurk, believed this is progress towards a more stable Middle East. On a tweet, McGurk said “Welcome reopening of the Treybil border crossing between Iraq and Jordan. [A] key milestone for post-ISIS stabilization”.
Iraqi official discusses Basra projects with German ambassador
Secretary-general of the General Secretariat of the Council of Ministers Mahdi al-Alaq met with German ambassador to Iraq Dr. Cyrill Nunn with the two officials discussing bilateral relations and carrying out a series of projects in Basra Governorate, a statement revealed on August 27. In a statement, the general secretariat of the
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Council of Ministers said that the government intends to set up water supply projects and complete other pending projects in the governorate. According to the statement, the German ambassador reiterated his country’s support for Iraq in all fields. Germany will support a project for the reconstruction and renovation of Basra ports, the statement read. It added that the ambassador is
Iran to export gas to Iraq’s Basra soon
Iran will be ready in a month to start supplying 5 million cubic meters of natural gas per day through a pipeline to the southern Iraqi city of Basra, the planning director of National Iranian Gas Company said on August 27. “According to plans, the country has established the infrastructure for gas export to Basra, which mainly include a pipeline stretching from Ahvaz, the provincial capital of Khuzestan, to Khorramshahr and then to the border with Iraq,” Mohammad Reza Qodsizadeh was also quoted as saying. Stressing that Iran’s annual gas exports are planned to reach 68 billion cubic meters in the next five years, Qodsizadeh said the country started the export of 7 mcm/d of gas to Iraq in June, which is slated to reach 14 mcm/d by the end of the current fiscal year (March 2018). There are two routes for gas export to Iraq: a pipeline that stretches into Baghdad through the city of Naft Shahr (Kermanshah Province) and a second pipeline that goes to Basra. Turkey is the biggest customer of Iranian gas, taking in about 10 billion cubic meters of gas annually.
Iraq's Siba gas field to start production by year end
Iraq's Siba gas field will start production by the end of the year, according to a statement by officials. The gas field in Basra province is the only one in southern Iraq and is expected to produce 100 million cubic feet of gas per day when it reaches its full capacity. The director of the gas field, Asaad Abood said the facility will start with 25 million cubic feet of gas a day. First discovered in 1968, Siba is estimated to hold 1.1 trillion cubic feet of gas. A contract for the field was awarded to a consortium of Kuwait Energy, Turkish Petroleum and Iraqi state- owned South Oil Company after a licensing round in 2010. Last year, the Kuwait-based producer transferred 20 per cent of its stake to the Egyptian General Petroleum Company. The director of Egypt's state-owned Petrojet said Egyptian nationals were working on the project. About 18 new wells are expected to be drilled over the life of the field.
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WEEKLY OPERATIONAL ASSESSMENT
Countrywide Military/Security Situation Northern Provinces (Kirkuk/Salah al-Din/Diyala)
Reporting in the north this week has been characterised by the conclusion of the offensive to retake Tal Afar, 60km west of Mosul.
The offensive to retake Tal Afar was concluded this week, with Prime Minister Abadi announcing the entire province of Nineveh liberated on August 31. The operation to retake the majority Sunni Turkmen town lasted just 11 days, as joint ISF and PMU forces advanced on five different axes. Importantly, a gap was left in this advance to the north to allow IS militants to flee. This has been credited with shortening the fight for the town and saving much of it from severe battle damage. The intention was then to target fleeing fighters in the desert, although a number fled north to Ayadiya, 11km north of Tal Afar, where strong resistance was reported.
Elsewhere in Nineveh, in the sparsely populated desert areas in the west of the province, six militants were killed and one IS vehicle destroyed as ISF repelled an attack in Ba'aj. PMU also reported repelling a major IS attack near the Syrian border, which reportedly involved the use of 12 VBIEDs.
In Kirkuk province, there were attacks targeting IS militants in the Hawija pocket. On August 29, five gunmen were killed during a SAF attack on an IS checkpoint in Shumayt village of Zab region, west of Hawija. Whilst in
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central Hawija, gunmen carrying suppressed weapons shot and killed an IS leader known as 'Abu sadiq al-Afari'. IED incidents targeting ISF in the province also continued, with an IED detonation on a civilian vehicle carrying ISF passengers behind Sakhra Village in the Mullah Abdullah Sub-district, northeast of Kirkuk. The driver was killed and the six ISF members were wounded in the attack.
In Salah ad Din this morning, ISF and elements of Saraya al-Salam PMU killed seven suicide attackers who had infiltrated a power station southeast of Samarra. At least three of the attackers infiltrated the power station and detonated explosive vests. Six Ministry of Electricity employees were killed and nine ISF injured during the incident. Activity elsewhere in the province during the period was relatively subdued, although in the north PMU claimed to have foiled an infiltration attempt by IS militants in the Mafraq al-Zouiya area, near the Makhoul Mountains. There were also IED incidents targeting ISF in Tuz Khourmatu in eastern Salah ad Din, and in Balad in the south of the province.
Diyala witnessed higher activity levels following the previous subdued week. On August 28, a VBIED was found in Balad Ruz, 40km east of Baqubah. Another VBIED was discovered in Kanaan, 30km east of Baqubah. Both devices were control detonated by ISF as the driver of one of them was arrested.. In addition to these VBIEDs, there was limited IED activity along the Diyala River Valley.
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Anbar Province
Anbar was busy again during the period. On August 27, an SVBIED detonated while it was parked near the Wafaa-35 Kilo area, with no damage or injuries reported. Western Anbar was also active, possibly due to IS commitments they would conduct attacks to keep the Jordan-Iraq border crossing closed. This included IDF attacks in the Rutbah area, and IEDs in border areas. Despite this, the Trebil border crossing was officially opened on August 30 for the first time since 2014.
In Anbar, a senior PMU figure, Wathiq al-Fartossi of Quwat al-Buraq, announced the deployment of night security patrols and the installation of surveillance cameras on Route Mobile – the highway from Baghdad to Amman. He added that PMU and ISF are responsible for the security provision of this route. The report was posted on the PMU official web page.
Anbar’s governor Suhaib al-Rawi was voted out of his post this week, and the new Governor of Anbar was named as Mohammed al-Halbousi. Al-Habousi is from the al-Hal Party. This was the second time Anbar governor al-Rawi had been voted out as governor, although he had previously managed to successfully appeal the decision. This time the appeal court did not find in his favour. The Anbar Provincial Council held a meeting on August 29, with 22 members of the 28 seat council voting to choose al-Halbousi for the post.
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Weekly Iraq .Xplored Report
2 September 2017
Capital Region (Baghdad City)
Baghdad had a particularly busy reporting period, with four VBIED detonating in the city during a three day period.
On August 27, two people were killed and four others injured in a VBIED detonation in Abu Dashir, south of Baghdad. Shortly after a VBIED in Shurta al-Rabia neighbourhood western Baghdad, left three killed and five injured. The following day, nine people were killed and 16 others injured in a VBIED explosion near Jameela Wholesale Market in Sadr City in eastern Baghdad. Then on August 29, a VBIED parked on the roadside detonated near al-Kindi intersection near Palestine Street late at night, injuring two civilians.
As well as these attacks, there was also a steady level of low-level incidents involving IEDs and SAF, related mostly to disputes and criminality. One incident of note involved an armed robbery gang that was arrested after clashing with an OPF patrol transporting monthly salaries in Waziriyah. The OPF were intercepted and shot at by three gunmen on Mohammed al-Qassim Expressway near the old site of the Ministry of Finance, which resulted in one ISF being injured.
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Weekly Iraq .Xplored Report
2 September 2017
Central Region (Baghdad Belts)
Provincial Baghdad was relatively busy, particularly to the majority Sunni north and west. On August 29, ISF cleared a VBIED and arrested the driver before entering an ISF checkpoint in Mahmudiyah. The previous day, and following a VBIED attack in Sadr city, an IED detonated near a vegetable wholesale market in Yusufiyah, south of Baghdad, killing one person and injuring five.
To the west of the capital, three Sunni tribal militiamen were killed and four injured during a grenade attack on their checkpoint by gunmen in Abu Ghraib on August 31. Other IED and UVIED incidents also targeted ISF in Abu Ghraib. ISF are the predominant target in Tarmiyah to the north of the province, where IED and SAF incidents were reported. Aside from the incident in Yusufiyah and the VBIED intercept in Mahmudiyah, areas to the south and east of the province were relatively subdued.
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Weekly Iraq .Xplored Report
2 September 2017
Southern Provinces
It was a relatively quiet period for Basra with a distinct drop in tribal and robbery incidents noted for the period. The start of Eid (September 01) begun with Basra announcing a security plan. The BaOC Commander, Major General Jamil Al-Shimmari added that IS may try to target the province to avenge loses in Tal Afar. Security increases, including extra vehicles at checkpoints and increased patrols were observed. Additionally, Iraqi Naval detachments were seconded to the city. Two energy theft operations were specified in the media this week, these incidents normally go unreported but may be an attempt to show provincial success now that the intelligence agencies are concentrating on revenue and corruption issues. As well as this, the National Security Services (NSS) announced a number of successful operations at Umm Qasr and drug arrests in the provincial area.
In politics, Sabah al-Bazzouni – the Basra Provincial Council Chairman – is having his corruption case reviewed in Baghdad after raising concerns over impartiality. Aside from this, the Basra Governor, Assad Abdul Amir Abdul Ghaffar Al-Eidani, featured strongly in the local media with Ammar al-Hakim, the leader of the newly formed National Wisdom Movement. Hakim pledged his full support to Al-Eidani. Following this the Iraqi PM signed the executive order confirming the newly nominated Basra Governor. Reactions to the appointment have been mixed, with the populace wanting a technocrat rather than a politician – especially a representative linked to the previous Governor’s party who had resigned over corruption allegations and escaped to Iran. Protest activity is highly probable but the issue has been dampened due to Eid. The new governor has already reportedly set out plans to hold a meeting with security officials in order to implement a new security strategy for Basra, utilising technology and intelligence to improve safety throughout the province.
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Weekly Iraq .Xplored Report
2 September 2017
Both the Rafidain (covering Wasit, Maysan, Muthanna and Dhi Qar provinces) and Basra Operations Commands implemented security plans for Eid al-Adha this week. The plans involve extra security force deployments in public areas, including parks, near mosques and markets.
In Dhi Qar, an explosive device was reportedly detonated yesterday inside the office of the Peace Brigades (Sadrist Militia) in Shatrah district, north of Nasiriyah. There were no casualties.
In Maysan, a tribal dispute between the Albu Bakheet and Albu Ghannam in Uzair in southern Maysan resulted in four killed and forced the displacement of a number of families.