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Reuters: The plan to dismantle the crowd begins with the withdrawal of heavy weapons and then restructured
Baghdad / Reuters
Reuters: The plan to dismantle the crowd begins with the withdrawal of heavy weapons and then restructured
Baghdad / Reuters
Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi, under pressure from his allies in the West, is betting his political career by curbing the influence of Shi'ite factions that helped him defeat a pro-Western organization.
That will not be an easy task. Most of the armed factions under the banner of popular mobilization have been trained and supported by Iran, so Abadi risks infuriating the strongest regional party he supports.
The majority of Shiites see the 150,000-strong popular fighters as their saving force. A number of faction leaders plan to nominate themselves in front of Abadi in parliamentary elections in May. Some warned that they would resist attempts to dismantle the factions.
Military and intelligence sources said Abadi's plan was to restore heavy weapons to the factions and reduce their numbers by half. The Iraqi army is currently counting the weapons of the popular crowd, such as armored vehicles and tanks handed over by the government to the factions to fight an oppressive organization.
The next step is for Abadi to order military and police commanders to hand over those heavy weapons under the pretext of its reform. Two military sources said the Defense Department would then exclude both over-age fighters as well as physically unfit.
"We can not keep a second army in one country, that is the main objective of the plan," said a colonel, whose commander briefed him on the plan, saying it would "be carried out with great care and precision to prevent any negative reaction from the leaders of the popular crowd."
Parliamentarians close to Abbadi said one of his political advisers says he is under "enormous pressure" from the West and Sunni regional allies to dissolve the popular mobilization forces after it has become a reluctant organization.
The adviser, speaking on condition of anonymity, said that "
In a phone call last month, French President Emmanuel Macaron Abadi encouraged the demobilization of the popular crowd, the adviser told the caller.
A deputy from the Dawa Party, which belongs to Abadi, said that after crushing the Al-Da'ash organization in Iraq, Abadi will find it more difficult to avoid cracking down on the factions.
"Abadi will respond to pressure from his Western and Gulf allies to resolve the popular crowd by saying he needed to fight the da'eef, but now the organization has ended and there are no other arguments to maintain popular mobilization," the MP said.
A Shi'ite deputy close to the prime minister said Ebadi, however, did not trust the Iranians because their faction allies acted as if they were a state within the state.
"Abadi believes that support from the West, the United States and regional Arab states is indispensable to make Iraq more stable in the future," he said.
But faction leaders like Ali al-Husseini of the Imam Ali Brigades say the popular crowd played a key role in defeating the organization and that his dismissal would be a "big mistake".
However, a military intelligence officer with the rank of colonel closely linked to the office of the chief of staff of the armed forces said a joint committee of the army, police and intelligence services would review the number of the popular mobilization fighters and make recommendations for the slaves who would decide who would stay and who would retire. Abadi will also instruct his leaders to restructure his forces.
Another colonel of the army also said that the collection of heavy weapons from the factions would not be easy, because they controlled hundreds of headquarters, weapons stores, camps and even small rocket factories.
Shiite faction leaders publicly show their allegiance to Tehran and Iranian advisers are seen on the battlefields of Iraq. Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, warned last June that the factions would be weakened.
Security sources and analysts say any attempt by Abadi to silence the popular crowd could provoke a backlash from Shi'ites who are expected to be protected by factions in the event of renewed sectarian strife in Iraq.
A backlash could lead to the election of an alliance of Iranian-backed political parties with enough seats in parliament to end Ebadi's bid to win a second term as prime minister.
Jassem al-Bahadli, an expert on armed Shi'ite groups in Baghdad, said Abadi's success in confronting a hawkish and quelling Kurdish bid for independence from Iraq could tempt him with increased confidence and move to rein in factions. Al-Bahadli warned that "militancy with the popular crowd may be a double-edged sword, because it has a wide popularity that should not be underestimated by Abbadi."
In an attempt to counter the popularity of the popular crowd, Abadi turned to the Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr, who led a rebellion against the American occupation forces and was named by the Pentagon as the most dangerous man in Iraq.
Aides said they held a secret meeting in the holy city of Kerbala on November 11 to discuss Sadr's help to the government in disarming the factions. Sadr sees the factions as a threat to his role as a maker of kings in Iraq's turbulent political scene.
An adviser to Sadr said Abadi had asked Sadr during his meeting to try to "cleanse the country" of corrupt politicians and those who might try to use armed groups to influence the election.
"They talked about putting an end to the factions that work above the law, fighting corruption and of course supporting Abadi's bid to be prime minister for a second term," he said.
The majority of Shiites see the 150,000-strong popular fighters as their saving force. A number of faction leaders plan to nominate themselves in front of Abadi in parliamentary elections in May. Some warned that they would resist attempts to dismantle the factions.
Military and intelligence sources said Abadi's plan was to restore heavy weapons to the factions and reduce their numbers by half. The Iraqi army is currently counting the weapons of the popular crowd, such as armored vehicles and tanks handed over by the government to the factions to fight an oppressive organization.
The next step is for Abadi to order military and police commanders to hand over those heavy weapons under the pretext of its reform. Two military sources said the Defense Department would then exclude both over-age fighters as well as physically unfit.
"We can not keep a second army in one country, that is the main objective of the plan," said a colonel, whose commander briefed him on the plan, saying it would "be carried out with great care and precision to prevent any negative reaction from the leaders of the popular crowd."
Parliamentarians close to Abbadi said one of his political advisers says he is under "enormous pressure" from the West and Sunni regional allies to dissolve the popular mobilization forces after it has become a reluctant organization.
The adviser, speaking on condition of anonymity, said that "
In a phone call last month, French President Emmanuel Macaron Abadi encouraged the demobilization of the popular crowd, the adviser told the caller.
A deputy from the Dawa Party, which belongs to Abadi, said that after crushing the Al-Da'ash organization in Iraq, Abadi will find it more difficult to avoid cracking down on the factions.
"Abadi will respond to pressure from his Western and Gulf allies to resolve the popular crowd by saying he needed to fight the da'eef, but now the organization has ended and there are no other arguments to maintain popular mobilization," the MP said.
A Shi'ite deputy close to the prime minister said Ebadi, however, did not trust the Iranians because their faction allies acted as if they were a state within the state.
"Abadi believes that support from the West, the United States and regional Arab states is indispensable to make Iraq more stable in the future," he said.
But faction leaders like Ali al-Husseini of the Imam Ali Brigades say the popular crowd played a key role in defeating the organization and that his dismissal would be a "big mistake".
However, a military intelligence officer with the rank of colonel closely linked to the office of the chief of staff of the armed forces said a joint committee of the army, police and intelligence services would review the number of the popular mobilization fighters and make recommendations for the slaves who would decide who would stay and who would retire. Abadi will also instruct his leaders to restructure his forces.
Another colonel of the army also said that the collection of heavy weapons from the factions would not be easy, because they controlled hundreds of headquarters, weapons stores, camps and even small rocket factories.
Shiite faction leaders publicly show their allegiance to Tehran and Iranian advisers are seen on the battlefields of Iraq. Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, warned last June that the factions would be weakened.
Security sources and analysts say any attempt by Abadi to silence the popular crowd could provoke a backlash from Shi'ites who are expected to be protected by factions in the event of renewed sectarian strife in Iraq.
A backlash could lead to the election of an alliance of Iranian-backed political parties with enough seats in parliament to end Ebadi's bid to win a second term as prime minister.
Jassem al-Bahadli, an expert on armed Shi'ite groups in Baghdad, said Abadi's success in confronting a hawkish and quelling Kurdish bid for independence from Iraq could tempt him with increased confidence and move to rein in factions. Al-Bahadli warned that "militancy with the popular crowd may be a double-edged sword, because it has a wide popularity that should not be underestimated by Abbadi."
In an attempt to counter the popularity of the popular crowd, Abadi turned to the Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr, who led a rebellion against the American occupation forces and was named by the Pentagon as the most dangerous man in Iraq.
Aides said they held a secret meeting in the holy city of Kerbala on November 11 to discuss Sadr's help to the government in disarming the factions. Sadr sees the factions as a threat to his role as a maker of kings in Iraq's turbulent political scene.
An adviser to Sadr said Abadi had asked Sadr during his meeting to try to "cleanse the country" of corrupt politicians and those who might try to use armed groups to influence the election.
"They talked about putting an end to the factions that work above the law, fighting corruption and of course supporting Abadi's bid to be prime minister for a second term," he said.
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