Goldman Bank: Brent prices will rise to $ 75 a barrel in the second quarter of this year
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He said that "the discipline of shale oil producers" was likely behind the group's slower increase in production.
The bank said in a note on Thursday that it now expects Brent prices to reach $ 75 a barrel in the second quarter and $ 80 a barrel in the third quarter of 2021.
Shale oil producers in the United States have reacted quickly to oil price gains in recent years, winning market share at a time when Saudi Arabia and other large producers have cut production, but have been reluctant to boost production since demand was destroyed by the pandemic last year.
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies agreed yesterday, Thursday, to extend most of the crude production cuts until April, after they decided that the recovery of demand from the Corona virus pandemic is still fragile.
"The OPEC supply strategy is successful due to its unpredictability and surprise," Goldman said.
The bank lowered its forecast for OPEC + production of 0.9 million barrels per day over the next six months, and said supplies from shale oil, Iran and outside OPEC will likely remain severely inflexible towards prices until the second half of 2021, allowing OPEC + to quickly rebalance the oil market. .
And the bank stated: "The main issue will be the potential reaction to shale supplies, but the most recent season for profits indicates that investors are still far from compensating for growth." / End 8[/rtl]