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- SATURDAY, 04-30-2022,PM 1:26
- KARAR AL ASADI
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By: Dr. Bilal Khalifa
Introduction A
few days ago, during the visit of the head of the Kurdistan Regional Authority in Iraq to Britain, he declared the region's readiness to export gas to Europe to be an alternative to Russian gas. The subject has several aspects to discuss.
1 - The repercussions of the decision on Iraq
A - From a constitutional and legal point of view
First: Constitutionally
, the fields that contain boiled gas are the Khormor gas field, which is located in the Kirkuk governorate, and which was run by the North Oil Company, it was seized by the Kurds after 2006, and for information, it is occupied by The authority of the region over (Article (112): First: - The federal government manages the oil and gas extracted from the current fields...) specifically on the word current, i.e. before 2005, which is the year of voting on the constitution and considering it enforceable.
This topic has been discussed in many articles, but here if we suppose that we agree with what the leaders of the region interpret to the constitution about oil and gas, then here the Kurds cannot justify their control over several very, very important fields, namely Khormur and Khurmala because those fields are very old and according to the constitution. Its management is entirely the responsibility of the central government.
Second: legally
The Federal Supreme Court issued its decision in the case (59/Federal/2022) and its unified (110/Federal/2019) on February 15, 2022, which states that the Oil and Gas Law of the Kurdistan Regional Government No. (22) of 2007 is unconstitutional for violating the provisions of Articles (110, 111, 112, 115 and 121) / First) of the Constitution of the Republic of Iraq for the year 2005 with several binding provisions that the Federal Ministry of Oil and the authorities of the region must follow in implementation of this decision, with directing the public prosecutor (in addition to his job) to follow up on the invalidity of the oil contracts concluded by the regional government, and therefore the federal government was supposed to lift The region’s hand from all the oil sites located in the region and others that are located outside the region, but the Kurds control it, for example, the Khurmala Dome and the Khormor field.
Consequently, the region's current decision to export gas to Europe is a challenge to the constitution, the Federal Supreme Court, the government, Iraq in general, and the people of the south in particular.
b - From an economic point of view
, Iraq suffers from a major crisis in electrical energy, and the percentage of shortage in electrical energy supply in peak days in summer is almost one third, as one of the most important reasons for this problem is the shortage of gas supplied to electrical power plants, For this reason, Iraq turned to importing gas from the Islamic Republic, but the strange thing is that Iraq turns a blind eye to the Kurds’ seizure of an important gas field, which is Khor Mor, and the Kurds contracted with an Emirati company, Dana Gas and the Fertile Crescent, by contracting the type of partnership without the knowledge of the government, and the strangest thing is that the region does not sell gas Iraq, rather, wants to connect gas pipelines to Turkey and then to Europe to sell gas, and worse after the decision of the Federal Court.
The decision is a theft of the people of the south and the federal government, and action should be taken to stop this farce as soon as possible. Importing gas from abroad costs Iraq about 3 billion dollars annually, and this means that the reason for the loss of this amount is the region.
On the other hand, selling that gas and introducing its resources to certain people and to a particular party means Iraq's loss of more than two billion annually. Therefore, the decision loses Iraq more than five to six billion dollars annually.
In short, it is a drain on public money in Iraq and the depletion of its natural resources, and thus the reflection of that decision on the public budget, which is the food of the simple citizen.
C - From a political point of view,
this aspect is the most dangerous and has several meanings, including:
1- It means accelerating the secession of the region
2- Acting independently and away from the federal government and the region was an independent state
3- This means that the region established itself as an independent state and it is moving to be a member of the countries Gas-producing
4 - This step is, on the one hand, strengthening some political leaders at the expense of others.
2 - The repercussions of the decision on neighboring countries
The Kurdish people are located in four countries, including Turkey, Iraq and Syria, and that any action by one of these components will reflect negatively or positively on the other components in the neighboring countries, and therefore this step will have a reaction from the countries that have a Kurdish component .
A - Turkey's
Kurds constitute 56% of the total Kurds in the world. And their number is 30,016,000 people (20% of the total population of Turkey). Most of them live in the southeast of Turkey. And it has big problems with the Kurdish component, especially before the arrest of the rebel Kurdish leader Abdullah Ocalan, and the clashes continue to the present day, as the Turks have military operations inside the Iraqi borders against the PKK.
As for the position of the Turks on this decision, it can be divided into two parts:
The first: that the project will embarrass the Turks from its first ally in the region, which is Qatar, and I will explain it later.
The second: It is with this decision, especially that the gas pipeline will be through Turkish territory, which will benefit the Turks with the following: -
A - It will provide the Turkish budget with a financial return for gas transit through its territory.
B - In addition to increasing its political position, because it will have a pressure card on Europe and the Kurds by controlling the fate of the pipeline and the energy supply.
As everyone knows that the authority in the region has long-term partnerships with Turkey in the field of oil and energy, and therefore this decision is considered complementary to other agreements that are outside the knowledge of the government in Baghdad and outside the powers of the authority of the region.
B -
Against Iran, the Kurds of Iran constitute 16% of the total number of Kurds in the world. Their number is 4,398,000 people (about 6% of the total population of Iran). Iran is the second country in the world with gas reserves and the third in oil reserves, and the region’s move is a competition to Iran in addition to a threat to its national security that the region has transactions in the field of oil and gas with Israel, and this is not allowed by the Islamic Republic.
A - Qatar
must claim that Russia provides about 40% of Europe's gas imports. In 9 months of 2021, the Russian "Gazprom" company provided 51% of the gas imported by Europe... For Europe, this will be an economic disaster.
Russia's natural gas exports to European countries, with the exception of Turkey and Serbia, amounted in 2020 to about 157 billion cubic meters, and the most prominent European importing countries were Western European countries.
As for the countries with the largest share in the liquefied gas export market, Qatar ranked second after Russia in the world with a share estimated at 77.4 million tons, after it had for several years ranked first in liquefied gas exports in the world.
As Qatar's exports as a whole amounted to about 128 billion cubic meters of gas in 2020, including 21.8 exports via pipelines and 106.1 liquefied natural gas exports.
Thus, the Kurdish decision is the emergence of a new competitor to Qatar in the European markets, and it is noteworthy that most of the Qatari gas is exported to Europe.
3 - The repercussions of the decision on the world
A - The repercussions of the decision on the Ukrainian crisis
We have stated above that Europe depends to a large extent on Russian gas and at a rate greater than 41% of its energy, and that what is happening now is a near-global war between Russia and the eastern axis (Shanghai Conference) and between Western countries And NATO, and that one of the most important tools of war used by the Russians and the eastern axis is gas, especially since Russian President Putin decided that the transactions related to gas are in the Russian currency, the ruble, which resulted in an increase in the value of the ruble with the corresponding in other currencies, and therefore the decision of the authority in the region to supply Gas Europe is aligning with the American axis against Russia, and it is tantamount to declaring war against it, and this is never satisfied by Russia, and it will inevitably have decisions and activities to prevent this, and it may even come to work to end the Kurdish authority that went ahead with this decision.
B - The repercussions of the decision on global energy markets
The Kurdish decision will be divided into two parts in the energy market, namely: -
A - on the producers
that gas producers such as Russia, Qatar, Iran and Algeria will be affected by this decision and therefore that the supply of gas will increase and therefore the price of gas will decrease, and this means a threat to the economy of the producing countries for gas.
B - On consumers
. As for countries that are consuming gas, especially Europe, the decision will be a lifeline for them, because the decision will remove Russia's collar from the necks of European countries.
4 - Conclusions and Recommendations
1 - This decision will serve to strengthen the Kurdish authority politically and economically, and thus will inevitably enter into the fate of the Kurds in neighboring countries, and thus this step poses a threat to the security of neighboring countries.
2 - This decision will be major regional and international enemies against the region because it will be an economic and security competitor to them.
3- The region does not have the right to exploit the Khormore gas field because it: -
A - is located outside the provinces of the region
B - because it is one of the old fields (currently) and according to the expression of the constitution, that is, according to Article 112, it must be managed by the central government
C - the management of the field by The region is contrary to the constitution
D- Contrasted with the decision of the Federal Court
4- The decision will embarrass the central government, in front of: -
A - the people of the south
B - the government before the countries that will be harmed by this decision
C - He will embarrass the government before the Federal Court
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