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What are the repercussions of the collapse of the dinar on the Iraqi reality?
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Monday, January 23, 2023 17:27
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The recent actions of the US Federal Bank revealed a large financial hemorrhage of dollars flowing every day from Iraq in favor of Tehran (AFP)[/size]
[rtl]The more the West tightens the screws on Tehran, the more money smuggling operations from Iraq (AFP) intensify.[/rtl]
The continued smuggling of dollars into Iran and the failure to meet the requirements of the US Federal Reserve mean an increase in exchange rates, and observers warn of the procrastination of the framework government
[size][You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]a reporter [ltr][You must be registered and logged in to see this link.][/ltr]
Monday, January 23, 2023 17:27
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The recent actions of the US Federal Bank revealed a large financial hemorrhage of dollars flowing every day from Iraq in favor of Tehran (AFP)[/size]
[rtl]The crisis of the dollar’s high exchange rates against [You must be registered and logged in to see this link.] does not seem to be on the way to receding, as the local currency continues to decline since mid-December 2022 until now (the dollar equals 1,600 Iraqi dinars), following pressure from the [You must be registered and logged in to see this link.] Bank and the Iraqi government’s failure to take real action. In the face of it, which portends major problems affecting the country's economy.[/rtl]
[rtl]The crisis is not confined to the context of economic effects, especially since its roots are related to major corruption and money smuggling operations to Tehran and Damascus, which has reached "unprecedented limits" in the words of economists, prompting Washington to take swift measures to curb these money smuggling operations.[/rtl]
[rtl]The economic problems left by the crisis prompted the Iraqi street to take action as a result of the rise in prices in the local market, which is almost entirely dependent on imported goods, which further complicates the crisis surrounding the Iranian-backed coordination framework government.[/rtl]
[rtl]Smuggling money into Iran[/rtl]
[rtl]Despite repeated talk by Prime Minister Muhammad Shia al-Sudani about deterrent measures and repeated statements by leaders in the "coordination framework" that it is a matter of time, the dollar exchange rates continue to rise, which raises doubts about the ability of the Iraqi government to take any measures against smugglers. The dollar threatens to topple it, according to observers.[/rtl]
[rtl]Mustafa Nasser, a researcher in political affairs, believes that the US Federal Reserve's recent actions "revealed a large financial hemorrhage of dollars flowing every day for the benefit of Tehran and its allies in the region," noting that "the banks participating in the currency auction were buying more than 150 million dollars every day, and now It buys between 70 and 90 million dollars a day, covering the needs of the local market, meaning that about 60 to 80 million dollars were fleeing every day.”[/rtl]
[rtl]And the “Wall Street Journal” quoted US and Iraqi officials as saying that “the Federal Reserve Bank in [You must be registered and logged in to see this link.] began imposing stricter controls on international dollar transactions by Iraqi commercial banks in November 2022, in a move to reduce money laundering and illegal appropriation.” On dollars that go to Iran and other countries in the Middle East that are subject to sanctions.[/rtl]
[rtl]Not all press reports brought anything new about Iraq being a money launderer and currency smuggling platform for both Tehran and Damascus, as these operations have been taking place for many years, but the international measures this time appear to be more stringent, and may worsen further if the Iraqi government does not seriously acquiesce. to US Federal regulations.[/rtl]
[rtl]The former director general of financial operations at the Central Bank, Mahmoud Dagher, says that the solution to the exchange rate crisis is still in the hands of the Iraqi government through "making changes in the rules of financial transfer in response to the demands of the US Federal Bank and logic."[/rtl]
[rtl]Dagher added, in an interview with "Independent Arabia", that "Iraq can request a three-month period from the US Federal Reserve, during which it will accept the central bank's supervision of financial transfers until the start of the required program," stressing that "the Federal Reserve will accept this solution if it perceives serious measures from Iraq in bringing about change during that period.[/rtl]
[rtl]Theft of the century[/rtl]
[rtl]It seems that the main reason for the collapse of exchange rates in Iraq is related to "the US Federal Reserve's loss of confidence in the central bank as a result of the case of the theft of the century and the four banks with which it was announced to stop dealing," according to Dagher, who rules out that the issue has a "political dimension as some try to portray it."[/rtl]
[rtl]He points out that the required changes from the Central Bank are related to "the prevailing banking culture in the country, as merchants could make financial transfers through phone calls, but now they have to submit all legal papers in order for the transfer to be accepted," adding that the current procedures "have become really challenging." of money smuggling and corruption.[/rtl]
[You must be registered and logged in to see this image.][rtl]The more the West tightens the screws on Tehran, the more money smuggling operations from Iraq (AFP) intensify.[/rtl]
[rtl]Regarding the timing of this procedure, Dagher indicates that Washington, until recently, "was trusting the audit of the Iraqi Central Remittances, which eventually led to Iraq turning white in 2018 according to the Financial Action Committee, but the theft of the century and the accompanying events changed that," ruling out the existence of any American interests from the collapse of exchange rates in Iraq.[/rtl]
[rtl]And he continues that the four banks that were included in the sanctions were classified as (A), which raised a major problem.[/rtl]
[rtl]And he concludes, "If Iraq wants to respond to the requirements of the US Federal Bank, which are internationally known rules for financial transfer and auditing, then it must accept the continued rise in prices until this is accomplished. Failure to achieve that means a continuation in increasing exchange rates to unpredictable limits."[/rtl]
[rtl]government deficit[/rtl]
[rtl]According to press leaks, the US Federal Reserve closed the doors to negotiation efforts by the Central Bank or the Iraqi government before embarking on real measures to improve the banking system in accordance with international standards approved by all international banks.[/rtl]
[rtl]Despite all these facts, the forces of the "coordinating framework" are still talking about a plot to topple their government by Washington, as the representative of the "Sadiqun bloc", which is the political wing of the "Asa'ib Ahl al-Haq" militia, Zainab al-Moussawi, said in a press statement, that "the crisis of rising The exchange rate of the dollar comes as a result of American harassment aimed at toppling the Sudanese government and embarrassing it in front of the Iraqi people through some sanctions on private banks, as well as speculators in the markets.[/rtl]
[rtl]Political affairs researcher Mustafa Nasser believes that the Iraqi government is "unable to put an end to smuggling and money laundering operations," attributing this to "the underdevelopment of the country's financial and banking system, and the control of Iran's loyalists over all Iraqi banks that have been involved in currency smuggling and money laundering operations over the past years." ".[/rtl]
[rtl]He continued, "The framework government is now faced with two options, either to acquiesce in the process of developing the banking system and allow international and Arab banks to operate in Iraq, or to collapse quickly, because the banks established by the framework's leaders are nothing but shops for smuggling currency."[/rtl]
[rtl]Regarding the timing of the Federal Bank's actions, Nasser believes that all of these measures came as a result of what is known as the "theft of the century", which Western governments considered "a threat to the national security of their countries, as the leakage of these funds to European and American banks constituted a great financial confusion," referring to The continuation of the crisis in light of a market that relies entirely on imports in dollars "will ignite great public anger if the government continues with this approach."[/rtl]
[rtl]maximum pressure ceilings[/rtl]
[rtl]Popular demands to reduce the exchange rate are escalating and have reached the limits of demonstrations in front of the gates of the Central Bank of Iraq, which, according to observers, predicts the development of the matter into widespread popular protests if this crisis continues.[/rtl]
[rtl]Ahmed al-Sharifi, a researcher in political affairs, believes that the Iraqi government "will not take any action and has no choice but to procrastinate, especially since currency smuggling operations represent a main pillar for Tehran's allies at the present time, benefiting from the financial abundance in Iraq."[/rtl]
[rtl]Al-Sharifi says, "In return for continued international pressure to stop the flow of money from Iraq, Iran's allies are increasingly insisting on the continuation of these operations, especially with their constant talk of a conspiracy and their lack of compliance with conditions that limit uncontrolled money smuggling."[/rtl]
[rtl]He points out that money smuggling to Iran is directly linked to the severity of the sanctions against it, adding that "the more the West tightens the screws on Tehran, the more money smuggling operations from Iraq will become, which complicates the possibility of stopping these operations during the current period."[/rtl]
[rtl]Regarding the indications of the timing of the US Federal Reserve taking these measures, Al-Sharifi explains that it came after Washington became certain that the Sudanese government could not fulfill any of its promises in this regard.[/rtl]
[rtl]He points to several paths that may occur if the government does not fully comply with the requirements of the US Federal Bank, the most prominent of which is related to "the possibility of Washington raising the pressure ceiling to the greatest extent."[/rtl]
[rtl]As for the local context, Al-Sharifi believes that the continuation of the crisis for a longer period will contribute to "provoking Iraqi public opinion, which may eventually lead to a popular movement that overthrows the coordination framework government."[/rtl]
[rtl]It is likely that the talk about disagreements between the forces of the "coordinating framework" on this issue is just a "propaganda" aimed at giving Washington the impression that "part of the framework is not supportive of Iran and is trying to push the government towards adopting the Federal Bank's measures to buy more time."[/rtl]
[rtl]And he stresses that "Washington will take all possible measures and will not stop applying more pressure until it stops the flow of money to Iran."[/rtl]
[rtl]Changing smuggling strategies[/rtl]
[rtl]On the other hand, political science professor Haitham Al-Hiti believes that smuggling operations have been taking place in Iraq since 2005 until now as a result of the Iranian loyalists controlling the largest part of the Iraqi state, but the difference in the current government is that it suffers from great internal isolation.[/rtl]
[rtl]Al-Hiti says, "Perhaps what complicates the position of the coordination framework government in the current period is that it suffers from major problems in its national legitimacy, as it came to power despite losing the recent elections, as well as living in isolation within the Shiite community after the withdrawal of the Sadrist movement and the restriction of Shiite blocs in parliament to Tehran's allies." ".[/rtl]
[rtl]And he continues that the framework government will try to manage the crisis with the mechanisms of previous governments in maneuvering and procrastinating with Washington for the sake of Iran, and this is something that cannot be achieved, especially since the state of global conflict that the White House administration is experiencing with the China-Russia front will push it not to be complacent and tolerant with the framework government, ruling out that it will advance The government is effectively stopping money smuggling into Iran, but it may work to change smuggling strategies.[/rtl]
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