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In Iraq, the stubborn Sudanese is paving the way
Iraq 2023/04/13[You must be registered and logged in to see this image.]
Hafez Al-Ghawil
Translated by: Anis Al-Saffar
The bleak twentieth anniversary of the US-led invasion of Iraq, which is marked by an analysis based on a pensive look at the past and a pessimistic assessment of the future, overshadows the remarkable strides made by the government of Prime Minister Mohamed Shia al-Sudani in just 160 days of its life, as it walks on the brink of Soft as a razor.
Since the beginning of the mandate of this government, Iraq has remained teetering on the brink, being thrown from every side by several challenges that have combined to pounce on a republic that has overcome itself, but is still struggling to stand on its feet after two decades of chaos. Difficult questions remain unanswered to this day, and comprehensive solutions to Iraq's most pressing issues are still out of reach.
Nevertheless, despite all its troubles, Iraq still retains economic and political capabilities
Huge.
Of course, most of these capabilities are still very far from materialization, as insurmountable obstacles, many of which are due to subjective factors and causes, continue to narrow opportunities for Baghdad to successfully navigate its way through the quagmire in which it found itself. The result was the combination of political, governmental, economic, and even financial obstacles, with cultural, religious, technological, and environmental obstacles, leaving the authorities with very little room in addressing the growing list of needs of the Iraqi masses. Meanwhile, the three-pronged post-catastrophe threat, represented by high unemployment rates, uncontrolled inflation, and faltering public services, did not facilitate matters. Rather, it was responsible, to a degree, for the collapse that afflicted the previous administration.
After that, we move quickly through the scene to October of last year, to find that the emergence of Al-Sudani was not surprising in such a chaotic atmosphere full of tensions that led the oppressed political center to hold its breath in anticipation with cautious optimism for everything that might come later after the sweeping escalation that took place. It was done by the Sadrists. From the point of view of many, the relative independence that characterizes al-Sudani from the fragile ruling parties, blocs and alliances is the reason that made him the most suitable candidate to end the political crisis in Iraq and to carry out a reset of some kind for the post-Mustafa al-Kazemi era. However, the critics, on the other hand, remained unconvinced of him, because his proximity to the Shiite-dominated coordination framework from their point of view reflects the impression that al-Sudani will simply be a continuation of a situation that has maintained its trenches and current conditions for 20 years.
However, it is fortunate that this man, who was then a candidate for the position of prime minister, did not intend to repeat the mistakes of those who preceded him or commit unjustified mistakes, nor falter in the same slips that brought down those who came before him. Al-Sudani took the initiative to move quickly to gain confidence, not only the confidence of the Iraqi masses, but also the confidence of the Iraqi parliament, which is dominated by conflicts. resistance" and the Sadrist movement. His message was not tinted with glib populist rhetoric, which is often the last resort of blunt tyrants. Instead, al-Sudani pledged to hold provincial elections and reform the general election law. He also announced his intention to hold early parliamentary elections. This was enough to garner support from coalitions of Shiites, Sunnis, and Kurds for his bid for the presidency.
the government.
However, timely rhetoric, political finesse, and promises of much-needed reforms are not enough to heal Iraq after many years of political stagnation, distrust of public institutions, deteriorating economic conditions, extreme polarization, compromised security, external interference, and the ever-present threat of a resurgence of ISIS. All of these challenges were a legacy inherited from previous governments, which makes the task of holding early local and parliamentary elections, for example, very unlikely. In addition, while the Sudanese government enjoys broad support from the coordination framework, it still lacks a parliamentary majority with sufficient weight to enable it to move forward towards approving the new election law, not to mention the comprehensive reforms project that covers the executive, legislative and judicial authorities.
An unenviable position in which the new prime minister found himself. It seems that the greater part of his work will be related to managing chaos rather than managing the government in a manner consistent with the stated intentions and priorities of the state. Despite this, Al-Sudani was able to win despite the obstacles imposed on him by the limited political capital, while he is waging crises on the home front, both political and economic, while working at the same time to reintegrate Iraq into the region. It may be a bit early to give al-Sudani a definitive testimony of the relative success in managing the chaos in Iraq, but it was well-known that he used his personal advantages well. Among those advantages are his previous experience in government work and what is reported about his lack of involvement in the rampant corruption epidemic in Iraq and his balanced speeches that seek full legitimacy, not just the legitimacy of Parliament.
Country.
Unlike other Iraqi politicians, who have alleged links to external players, Al-Sudani is devoid of such loyalties or citizenship in any other country, which means that he will not be hostage to any influences, whether malicious or not, that actively move to impose influence. On the politics of Iraq or infiltration within its government in light of the severe political malaise that this country suffers from. This "dissociation" from the polarizing players is of particular importance when the goal is to follow clear and balanced approaches in managing Iraq's foreign relations, facilitating its regional reintegration, and perpetuating its prosperity and well-being. This also gives al-Sudani the ability to objectively assess the advantages of strategic engagement and cooperation for the better interests of Iraq rather than succumbing to the four-sided conflict from outside the borders between the United States and Iran.
and Turkey.
Baghdad, which seems to have re-emerged, is currently resisting calls from within the Shiite coalition to disengage Iraq from the United States and then put a definitive end to the strategic partnership between the two countries stipulated in the Strategic Framework Agreement in 2008 and to lead cooperation between Iraq and the United States in the diplomatic, military, security and economic fields. Al-Sudani also insists on strengthening relations and keeping them balanced with the main partners because they will seriously contribute to combating corruption and diversifying Iraq's economy dependent on fossil fuels, while addressing the country's high poverty rates and widespread unemployment in addition to the deterioration of food and water security.
Many of al-Sudani's critics, both inside and outside Iraq, begin their reasons for rejecting him by presenting unrealistic expectations, deliberately forgetting that "Rome was not built in one day." Many of Iraq's ills and diseases are the accumulations of a 20-year dysfunction in governance in a country ravaged by conflicting interests and visions that often ended up with a bowed face, leaving the disaffected masses to bequeath frustrations and despair. Add to the equation also “ISIS”, the pandemic, the instability of global energy prices, the drought caused by climate change, the existing threat regarding the secession of the Kurdistan region, the unrelenting political skirmishes, and other lists that go on, and the result is a dangerous powder keg that will take a long time to defuse before Iraq can to regain its position and prestige. The most important thing is to ensure that the right man is in the right place, along with an appropriate ammunition of sound policies that do not underestimate the scourges of Iraq and do not discount them.
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