After Al-Sudani's statements.. What is the future of the American presence in Iraq?

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[size=52]After Al-Sudani's statements.. What is the future of the American presence in Iraq?[/size]

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03/05/2024
As tension escalates due to the continued targeting of international coalition bases in Iraq by armed factions loyal to Tehran, and the subsequent American counterattacks on them, since mid-last October, speculation is increasing about the future of the American military presence in Iraq and the nature of the relationship between Washington and And Baghdad.[/size]
[size=45]In this context, Iraqi Prime Minister Muhammad Shia al-Sudani said that Iraq wants a quick and orderly exit of the US-led military forces from its territory through negotiation, but he did not set a final date.[/size]
[size=45]Al-Sudani described the presence of these forces on his territory as destabilizing in light of the regional repercussions of the Gaza war, according to Reuters.[/size]
[size=45]Long-standing calls by factions, most of them Shiite, many of which are close to Iran, for the departure of the international coalition led by Washington, gained momentum after a series of US strikes on factions linked to Iran and also forming part of the official Iraqi forces.[/size]
[size=45]These strikes, which came in response to dozens of drone and missile attacks on American forces during the Gaza war, raised fears that Iraq would once again become the scene of a broad regional conflict.[/size]
[size=45]Al-Sudani told Reuters in an interview on Tuesday that there is a need to reorganize this relationship so that it is not a goal or justification for any party, whether internal or external, to tamper with stability in Iraq and the region, adding that the exit of those forces must take place through negotiation.
Kurdistan's position[/size]
[size=45]Statements that coincided with the reception of the Prime Minister of the Kurdistan Regional Government of Iraq, Masrour Barzani, on Tuesday, the Commander-in-Chief of the International Coalition Forces in Iraq and Syria, General Joel Fowell.[/size]
[size=45]In the meeting, which was attended by the US Consul General to the region Mark Straw, views were exchanged regarding the latest developments in the Kurdistan region, Iraq and Syria.[/size]
[size=45]The main axis of the meeting included emphasizing the importance of protecting security and stability in Iraq and the Kurdistan region, and emphasizing the need for the international coalition forces to continue their missions in order to assist the Iraqi army and Peshmerga forces in combating terrorism and ensuring security and stability, according to Barzani.
High costs[/size]
[size=45]Observers believe that Al-Sudani's statements do not necessarily mean that Baghdad will go so far as to demand a complete and complete withdrawal of coalition forces, and that they fall within the context of attempts to absorb the anger of trends and groups opposed to the American presence, noting the high security, economic, and political costs of the coalition forces' withdrawal from Iraq.[/size]
[size=45]Ihsan Al-Shammari, professor of political science at the University of Baghdad, said in an interview with Sky News Arabia:[/size]
[size=45]These are unrealistic calls, especially since the Kurdistan region, for example, announced the necessity of American forces remaining in Iraq, in addition to the fact that Sudanese himself, weeks ago, indicated the necessity of the presence of these forces and even expanding the scope of coordination and cooperation with them.
These positions are often to please the armed factions and some of the coordination framework forces, especially after the recent American strike in Baghdad.
In addition, any rapid American exit, even if it takes place, will not take place for at least two to five years, as it is not an easy process and requires arrangements, agreements, and timetables.
We should not forget that such an approach will be met with Kurdish and Sunni rejection, which could lead to a major political and national crisis, and make it a demand that does not enjoy consensus among the various influential and active political components and forces.
For his part, writer and expert on Kurdish affairs, Tariq Johar, said in an interview with Sky News Arabia:[/size]
[size=45]It does not seem like a logical or practical idea, as the American withdrawal from Iraq may create a dangerous security vacuum, which extremist groups such as ISIS will naturally exploit, which threatens to dissipate years of efforts to combat and defeat terrorism in Iraq and the region in general.
What increases the danger of such a withdrawal is that ISIS still exists despite its declining strength, but it nevertheless poses a threat to the security of Iraq and the safety of its citizens.
We should not forget that the Kurdistan region in particular will not accept such an approach to dispense with the presence and role of the international coalition forces that are strongly stationed in the region, as it is no secret the extent of the distinguished relationship that links Erbil with Washington and the rest of the international coalition capitals.
The economic consequences of such a withdrawal also indicate the extent of the harm that such a step would cause to Iraq's interests and its overall international relations.[/size]
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