Home
Iraq, Trump and Why ISIS Would Have Happened Anyway: In Conversation with Britain’s Former Special Envoy to Iraq
[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]December 1, 2016
It has been 13 years since the Iraq War began and nearly six years since the last U.S. troops withdrew—but the country remains desperately unstable. Violence is a daily reality of life in Iraq; in the first 10 months of this year, [You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]. More than 3 million Iraqis are displaced throughout the country while hundreds of thousands more have fled to Europe and the Middle East.
[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.] from 2003 to 2004, says he’s not surprised that Iraq’s security situation is still precarious. In his new book, Iraq: the Cost of War (£14.99, available at [You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]), Greenstock [You must be registered and logged in to see this link.], [You must be registered and logged in to see this link.] lack of communication between the U.S.’s military and political wings to the Americans at times sidelining the British when it came to making key decisions. That in part explains the current crisis in Iraq where the Islamic State militant group (ISIS) still controls large areas of territory, including the country’s second-largest city, Mosul.
Greenstock’s revelations about the mistakes made during the war might also explain why the then Home Secretary Jack Straw blocked the book’s publication in 2005. The British government only approved its release 11 years later, following the publication of [You must be registered and logged in to see this link.], in July of this year. (The report rather damningly concluded that the U.K.’s decision to invade Iraq was made in “unsatisfactory” circumstances; that British intelligence agencies produced “flawed” information; that the country’s military was poorly equipped for the occupation; and that the U.K. government had no postwar plan.)
Now chairman of the strategic advisory company Gatehouse Advisory Partners and chairman of the oil and gas specialists Lambert Energy Advisory, Greenstock spoke to Newsweek about his book, the rise of ISIS, and what Donald Trump’s election means for the Middle East.
The interview below has been condensed and edited for clarity.
Did the absence of weapons of mass destruction in Iraq—one of the major reasons for the intervention—still justify the war?
There were [weapons of mass destruction], but they were very few and not important enough on their own to be a reason for invasion on that timing. I still feel, after all this time, that there was a reason for dealing with Saddam [Hussein] who was just raising two fingers to the U.N. the whole time and saying: Get lost, I am not going to comply with international law.
What went wrong was the handling of Iraq after the invasion. If we’d got that right and got security firmly enough established so that Iraqis could begin to write a constitution and form their civil society organizations and get political parties going—without terrorism and without the former Saddamists and Baathists fighting back—the criticism of [the war] would have faded away.
How did Washington’s tendency to act on its own, without seeking consultation elsewhere, affect the occupation of Iraq?
You have to go into what the U.S. is and who was representing the U.S. The State Department under Secretary Colin Powell did think about these things, did want to plan ahead, did have some understanding with its Arabist cadre of what Iraq would be like once Saddam had gone. But it wasn’t the State Department that was running the war or the post-war. It was the Pentagon and the Pentagon didn’t want to learn from the State Department, their own sister department, what it might be like in Iraq.
It had a real effect on the sophisticated level of preparation that might have been possible if the whole of the U.S. government had worked together and listened to each other. I think the way in which the American system handled it and the quite narrow and ideological nature of the neoconservative team around President George W. Bush did mean that some mistakes were made in the analysis and in the expectations of what might happen in Iraq. Therefore, and this is important, not enough resources were put on the ground to handle the problems before they arose. The Americans were always catching up on events that were running away from them.
U.S. Marine Corp Assaultman Kirk Dalrymple watches as a statue of Iraq's former President Saddam Hussein falls in central Baghdad on April 9, 2003. Jeremy Greenstock has criticized the U.S. for failing to properly plan for Iraq's future. Goran Tomasevic/Files/Reuters
Did the failure to adequately plan for Iraq’s future lead to the rise of ISIS?
As I say in the book, it was not the base cause but it was a contributing cause. It did make it more likely that ISIS was going to find territory, ungoverned space for a caliphate, that Iraq was unsecured. But I think ISIS would have happened anyway even if we hadn't attacked Iraq. Because Syria would have happened anyway and the rebellion and the loss of grip of [Syrian President Bashar al-Assad] would have been enough to get ISIS going in Syria, even if Iraq had not fed it. Because we lost control of Iraq and the Iraqis never regained it, the conjoining of ungoverned space in western, northwestern Iraq and eastern Syria made it much easier for ISIS to grow to a certain size. I think if Iraq had not happened, ISIS would not be so big in Syria but it would have existed.
We’ve spoken about Iraq and Syria, both of which are two volatile countries. Is there a concern about how U.S. President-elect Donald Trump will handle these nations, particularly given his lack of political and military experience?
Not necessarily. The American government is a team, you have the executive and the legislature and [Trump] will bring expert people into his government. But his instincts appear, at this stage, quite aggressive. He’s being the big, brave man wanting to smash ISIS and smash all the enemies of America. But he will have to come round to understanding, which I’m sure he will, that this is not just military strength, which the Americans are very good at, very destructive with; this is political construction in failed states, which they’re not so good at.
It is very difficult to mend a failed state from the outside. In the end, the people have to do it. I’ve learned through all this involvement with Iraq, and other issues, that outside intervention with military strength freezes the problems in a country. It may look as if you’re solving them because people are no longer being killed in the same way and you’ve got rid of a nasty leader, but you haven’t created the next state of capacity [for] people to run themselves without outside interference. You see that in Afghanistan, which is not a mended state yet, you see it in Iraq, you will go on seeing it in Yemen, Libya and Syria. Intervention freezes the problems, it doesn’t mend them.
So, does this mean that foreign states need to stop intervening in other countries?
No, if intervention is calculated to give the people an opportunity to get rid of a repressive system and make their own choices then that’s fine. But you’ve got to help them immediately with the politics and have some idea of who the next leadership is going to be. We were wrong with Iraq and Afghanistan on thinking no, it’s not going to be too difficult to find effective leaders after we’ve got rid of the Taliban or Saddam or whoever it is. Finding a better government to replace the one you remove is proving extremely difficult.
I think the colonial, imperialist era is over. Countries are now equal within the U.N.; we don’t have any moral authority [to intervene] unless we’re invited by partners and allies in the region and for good reasons from the point of our domestic interest back at home. If our interests and their invitation go in the same direction then I think intervention could be justified. It has to be very carefully managed, with massive resources so that you don’t lose control of security, with the political leadership being taken by the people of that country. If those circumstances are fulfilled then it could be right to intervene. If they’re not it’s nearly always a bad mistake to intervene.
[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]December 1, 2016
It has been 13 years since the Iraq War began and nearly six years since the last U.S. troops withdrew—but the country remains desperately unstable. Violence is a daily reality of life in Iraq; in the first 10 months of this year, [You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]. More than 3 million Iraqis are displaced throughout the country while hundreds of thousands more have fled to Europe and the Middle East.
[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.] from 2003 to 2004, says he’s not surprised that Iraq’s security situation is still precarious. In his new book, Iraq: the Cost of War (£14.99, available at [You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]), Greenstock [You must be registered and logged in to see this link.], [You must be registered and logged in to see this link.] lack of communication between the U.S.’s military and political wings to the Americans at times sidelining the British when it came to making key decisions. That in part explains the current crisis in Iraq where the Islamic State militant group (ISIS) still controls large areas of territory, including the country’s second-largest city, Mosul.
Greenstock’s revelations about the mistakes made during the war might also explain why the then Home Secretary Jack Straw blocked the book’s publication in 2005. The British government only approved its release 11 years later, following the publication of [You must be registered and logged in to see this link.], in July of this year. (The report rather damningly concluded that the U.K.’s decision to invade Iraq was made in “unsatisfactory” circumstances; that British intelligence agencies produced “flawed” information; that the country’s military was poorly equipped for the occupation; and that the U.K. government had no postwar plan.)
Now chairman of the strategic advisory company Gatehouse Advisory Partners and chairman of the oil and gas specialists Lambert Energy Advisory, Greenstock spoke to Newsweek about his book, the rise of ISIS, and what Donald Trump’s election means for the Middle East.
The interview below has been condensed and edited for clarity.
Did the absence of weapons of mass destruction in Iraq—one of the major reasons for the intervention—still justify the war?
There were [weapons of mass destruction], but they were very few and not important enough on their own to be a reason for invasion on that timing. I still feel, after all this time, that there was a reason for dealing with Saddam [Hussein] who was just raising two fingers to the U.N. the whole time and saying: Get lost, I am not going to comply with international law.
What went wrong was the handling of Iraq after the invasion. If we’d got that right and got security firmly enough established so that Iraqis could begin to write a constitution and form their civil society organizations and get political parties going—without terrorism and without the former Saddamists and Baathists fighting back—the criticism of [the war] would have faded away.
How did Washington’s tendency to act on its own, without seeking consultation elsewhere, affect the occupation of Iraq?
You have to go into what the U.S. is and who was representing the U.S. The State Department under Secretary Colin Powell did think about these things, did want to plan ahead, did have some understanding with its Arabist cadre of what Iraq would be like once Saddam had gone. But it wasn’t the State Department that was running the war or the post-war. It was the Pentagon and the Pentagon didn’t want to learn from the State Department, their own sister department, what it might be like in Iraq.
It had a real effect on the sophisticated level of preparation that might have been possible if the whole of the U.S. government had worked together and listened to each other. I think the way in which the American system handled it and the quite narrow and ideological nature of the neoconservative team around President George W. Bush did mean that some mistakes were made in the analysis and in the expectations of what might happen in Iraq. Therefore, and this is important, not enough resources were put on the ground to handle the problems before they arose. The Americans were always catching up on events that were running away from them.
U.S. Marine Corp Assaultman Kirk Dalrymple watches as a statue of Iraq's former President Saddam Hussein falls in central Baghdad on April 9, 2003. Jeremy Greenstock has criticized the U.S. for failing to properly plan for Iraq's future. Goran Tomasevic/Files/Reuters
Did the failure to adequately plan for Iraq’s future lead to the rise of ISIS?
As I say in the book, it was not the base cause but it was a contributing cause. It did make it more likely that ISIS was going to find territory, ungoverned space for a caliphate, that Iraq was unsecured. But I think ISIS would have happened anyway even if we hadn't attacked Iraq. Because Syria would have happened anyway and the rebellion and the loss of grip of [Syrian President Bashar al-Assad] would have been enough to get ISIS going in Syria, even if Iraq had not fed it. Because we lost control of Iraq and the Iraqis never regained it, the conjoining of ungoverned space in western, northwestern Iraq and eastern Syria made it much easier for ISIS to grow to a certain size. I think if Iraq had not happened, ISIS would not be so big in Syria but it would have existed.
We’ve spoken about Iraq and Syria, both of which are two volatile countries. Is there a concern about how U.S. President-elect Donald Trump will handle these nations, particularly given his lack of political and military experience?
Not necessarily. The American government is a team, you have the executive and the legislature and [Trump] will bring expert people into his government. But his instincts appear, at this stage, quite aggressive. He’s being the big, brave man wanting to smash ISIS and smash all the enemies of America. But he will have to come round to understanding, which I’m sure he will, that this is not just military strength, which the Americans are very good at, very destructive with; this is political construction in failed states, which they’re not so good at.
It is very difficult to mend a failed state from the outside. In the end, the people have to do it. I’ve learned through all this involvement with Iraq, and other issues, that outside intervention with military strength freezes the problems in a country. It may look as if you’re solving them because people are no longer being killed in the same way and you’ve got rid of a nasty leader, but you haven’t created the next state of capacity [for] people to run themselves without outside interference. You see that in Afghanistan, which is not a mended state yet, you see it in Iraq, you will go on seeing it in Yemen, Libya and Syria. Intervention freezes the problems, it doesn’t mend them.
So, does this mean that foreign states need to stop intervening in other countries?
No, if intervention is calculated to give the people an opportunity to get rid of a repressive system and make their own choices then that’s fine. But you’ve got to help them immediately with the politics and have some idea of who the next leadership is going to be. We were wrong with Iraq and Afghanistan on thinking no, it’s not going to be too difficult to find effective leaders after we’ve got rid of the Taliban or Saddam or whoever it is. Finding a better government to replace the one you remove is proving extremely difficult.
I think the colonial, imperialist era is over. Countries are now equal within the U.N.; we don’t have any moral authority [to intervene] unless we’re invited by partners and allies in the region and for good reasons from the point of our domestic interest back at home. If our interests and their invitation go in the same direction then I think intervention could be justified. It has to be very carefully managed, with massive resources so that you don’t lose control of security, with the political leadership being taken by the people of that country. If those circumstances are fulfilled then it could be right to intervene. If they’re not it’s nearly always a bad mistake to intervene.
» MM&C 11/8/24 Does printing the currency in Iraq cost huge amounts?.. An expert answers
» utube 11/9/2 MM&C News Reporting-Sudani Art IV IMF-Port Faw Open-CBI Governor-No Room for Tw
» To approve controversial laws... new political understandings between the blocs
» TBI opens two branches in Sulaymaniyah and Erbil and distributes 10,000 bank cards in Kurdistan
» Private Banks Association: The rate of financial inclusion for electronic payment is increasing
» Following the extension of the legislative term... a representative of "Al-Jabal": More than 120 law
» The leak of “billion-dollar bribes” shakes the atmosphere... Al-Sudani’s advisor is in the eye of th
» Central Statistical Organization: $24.6 billion in Iraqi imports in 2023
» Operating Iraqi factories... citizens' hope and influential merchants' obstacle
» Al-Sudani Office: Spreading lies is the weapon of the bankrupt
» Al-Maliki: The government and political forces must abide by the statement of the authority
» Parliamentary Security: US forces entered Iraq for the purpose of occupation
» Politician: Next year's budget will face several challenges
» White House Position Awaits Iraqi Beauty Who Helped Trump Return to Presidency
» Dana Gas achieves $112 million in profits in nine months in Kurdistan
» Al-Maliki warns against the explosion of internal crises and the activity of Baath Party cells in Ir
» Find out Iraq's global and Arab ranking with the highest average per capita wealth for the year 2024
» Al-Sudani's advisor: We have put in place a mechanism to provide loans to these groups
» A set of recommendations from Al-Sudani to reform the financial and banking system in Iraq
» Economist: Mistakes are being made in dealing with Basra crude prices
» MP reveals reason behind rising real estate prices in Basra
» Private Banks Association: Financial inclusion rate rose to 48%
» Economic Center Proposes Establishing a Ministry or Authority for Artificial Intelligence in Iraq
» Head of the "Homeland" coalition to "Nina": New understandings between parliamentary blocs to pass c
» Interior Minister chairs meeting to discuss preparations for securing Arab Summit in Baghdad
» The Prime Minister of the Kurdistan Regional Government discusses with the Japanese Ambassador to Ir
» Al-Maliki: Iraq is a key country in the region, not a marginal one
» Al-Araji discusses with the Iranian military attaché in Baghdad ways to enhance the security and sta
» Expectations of delaying the formation of the regional government until next year due to the lack of
» Tens of thousands of victims.. Will Iraq be able to remove mines before the end of 2028?
» Parliamentary satisfaction with intelligence efforts: The quality of information contributed to dire
» Trump wants to meet Sudani soon
» Kurdistan Finance delegation in Baghdad to discuss October salaries
» Voting this week.. Political dialogues to resolve differences over controversial laws in parliament
» Oil: Associated gas investment in the north reached 410 MCM
» With a length of (2444) meters.. Transport explains the strategic importance of the submerged tunnel
» Government Media: 670 model schools completed in all governorates
» For these reasons, Al-Mashhadani came to power as Speaker of Parliament.
» For these reasons, Al-Mashhadani came to power as Speaker of Parliament.
» Iraq reveals Iranian pledges not to use its territory in any attack
» Al-Mashhadani’s first test: “One month” before the Iraqi parliament to decide on “controversial” law
» Al-Sudani directs Jordanians to enter Iraq without a visa
» Wasted wealth.. More than 50% of Iraqi factories are out of operation
» Saleh Al-Mutlaq: “General amnesty” is designed for thieves
» Parliamentarian: Cancellation of the international coalition withdrawal agreement from Iraq is possi
» Government 'furious' at spreading lies: Law will take its right course
» Baghdad Mayor launches new phase to achieve sustainable development at Cairo Urban Forum
» Spreading lies is the weapon of the bankrupt.. The government: We will continue the war on corruptio
» Chairman of the Advisory Board of the Council of Ministers denies an audio recording attributed to h
» Installing GPRS systems in tankers transporting products to combat smuggling in Iraq
» With a length of (2444) meters.. Transport explains the strategic importance of the submerged tunnel
» Al-Sudani threatens: We will take revenge on anyone who tamperes with Iraq's security
» Al-Sudani calls Trump.. Agreement on coordination to end the war in the region
» Economic calls for Iraq to withdraw from OPEC.. What are the reasons?
» Dollar exchange rates in Iraqi markets this morning
» Disagreements and quarrels.. What happened in the last meeting of the State Administration Coalition
» What are the possible scenarios for forming the regional government?
» Proposal to establish a ministry or body dedicated to artificial intelligence in Iraq
» Urgent | Including increasing the number of branches.. Al-Sudani issues 6 directives to develop the
» Al-Alaq describes the parallel dollar as “abnormal”: There is great stability in prices
» utube 11/5/24 MM&C MM&C News Report-ICC-Investors-RIYADA BANK-Port of Faw-3 Presidents Seated-Removi
» Foreign Ministry: Iraqi-Saudi Coordination Council to convene in Baghdad next month
» Travelers demand cancellation of electronic reservations by government banks in selling them dollars
» Al-Sudani directs to increase bank branches to expand financial services and modernize buildings in
» Census Without Nationalities: An Attempt to Write a New Narrative of Iraq’s Unity
» Diplomatic Embrace or the Specter of Sanctions: Iraq Sways in Positions towards Trump
» The National: The British Army Returns to Iraq Under New Pretext
» Zidane and Al-Mandlawi discuss the issue of approving laws related to the work of the judiciary
» MP: The ministerial change is not linked to a specific component or party
» For these reasons, Al-Mashhadani came to power as Speaker of Parliament.
» Al-Kroui to Al-Maalouma: 4 oil and gas fields on the table of the upcoming licensing rounds
» Raouf: The region needs more time to form the new government
» Al-Sudani issues 6 directives to increase financial inclusion and raise its indicators in all govern
» Kurdistan Men's Union Diagnoses Danger Threatening Society's "Collapse" and Proposes Polygamy
» Anbar explains details of the Western Desert irrigation project and sets its opening date
» Large ships at the five berths of Al-Faw Port
» Al-Marsoumi: Faw Port and Development Road will generate revenues worth 6 trillion dinars in 2038
» Nearly half of Iraq's factories are "stopped"... moves to rescue them
» Gulf central banks follow the Federal Reserve and cut interest rates
» Iraqis are the most likely to buy real estate in Jordan in 2024
» Iranian-Sudanese agreement to expand economic and trade cooperation
» Completion of 670 schools in all Iraqi governorates
» Al-Sudani's advisor: We have put in place a mechanism to provide loans to these groups
» A set of recommendations from Al-Sudani to reform the financial and banking system in Iraq
» A dialogue seminar in Basra discusses the anti-torture file and fair trial mechanisms
» The conclusion of the Ninth International Scientific Conference of the College of Veterinary Medicin
» Minister of Interior from Amman: The government has launched a major campaign to improve the service
» Al-Bujari: The Grand Faw Port Project is an opportunity to do justice to graduates of maritime speci
» Al-Sudani announces a package of new banking directives to enhance financial inclusion in the govern
» Iraqi oil returns to gains as Iran-Israel tensions escalate
» Next week... Parliament is close to resolving the controversial laws
» Zidane discusses with Mandalawi and Maliki cooperation between the judicial and legislative authorit
» Al-Atwani to Al-Maliki: We have embarked on a new philosophy for managing the financial sector based
» Al-Sudani issues a set of recommendations to reform the financial and banking system in Iraq
» Iraq's Maritime Future.. Everything You Need to Know About Faw Port and Completion Rates (Video)
» Trump poses a threat to Iraq's budget
» A detailed explanation of the implications of Trump’s victory on Iraqi oil policy
» Minister of Interior inaugurates the unified card system at the Iraqi Consulate in Jordan