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«Anwowerev» negative effects in the economies of the oil countries
2/18/2017 0:00
[rtl]Capitals / agencies
were not the last three years , like its predecessors, has experienced great economic transformations, and achieved through the expectations of a large number of economic reports, which warns the oil states of the future in which oil becomes a burden rather than a raw material to increase national wealth.
Since mid - 2014, he began a dramatic decline in oil prices, to reach a higher percentage than the 55 percent down from $ 120 to between 56 and 57 dollars currently, having previously reached the limits of $ 30. This decline did not pass smoothly on the Petroleum Exporting Countries. Most of these countries did not put in the financial Stratejyate, especially in public Moisnath, the sharp decline in oil prices option.
The result deficits were in the public budgets, and attempts at restoration of economies in crisis, reflected directly on what was called "states of well - being", as these countries have begun operations structural change in their economies, reduced or null policy support, and imposing taxes, and heading towards austerity was not within their options during the years that preceded the decline in oil prices.
General crisis
says indicators: The oil turned from a blessing to a curse in the exporting countries of this item, so in comparison with commodity exporting countries without oil, or countries that diversity in sources of income.
In a report issued by the International Monetary Fund recently, which deals in general of Petroleum Exporting Countries and the countries exporting primary commodities and countries that adopt economic diversification, the figures show that the decline in good fuel from the financial situations of countries exporting commodities is oil prices, or the effects were limited in some indicators. Unlike the situation of countries that depend on their budgets on oil exports.
In 2014, GDP in the exporting countries to fuel 5.7 percent, versus 5.3 percent for countries exporting primary commodities volume growth reached. Slipping growth in output in 2015 , the first slide to 0.9 percent, compared to 4.6 percent the second. And then growth has become the first tranche of -1.6 percent in the first, and 3.8 percent in the second.
In relation to the overall budget deficit to GDP ratio, the oil - exporting countries recorded a deficit does not exceed 1.9 percent in 2014, compared to a deficit by 2.3 percent in the exporting commodity nations. The increased deficit of the first tranche of countries in 2015 and 2016 to 5.1 percent and 5.5 percent respectively, while the second tranche rose to 2.8 percent and 3.5 percent respectively.
Countries that rely on exports varied between oil and non - oil, there was a semblance of stability in finances during the years of the oil crisis. So that recorded growth in GDP during the years 2014, 2015 and 2016, by 6.4 percent, 6.4 percent and 6.1 percent respectively.
While a deficit in the public finances to GDP ratio during these three years, from 3.8 percent, 4.2 percent and 4.6 percent respectively.
The reality of the Arab countries
look to the annual Union of Arab Banks reports, give a thorough idea of the effects suffered by the Arab economies as a result of the decline of oil prices over the past three years.
Nominal GDP has fallen in the Arab states of 2.760 billion dollars in 2013, to 2.803 billion dollars in 2014, to 2.465 billion dollars in 2015, up to 2.449 billion dollars in 2016.
The deficit in the budget to GDP ratio, rose from 4.54 percent in 2014 to 10.51 percent in 2015 down to 10.23 percent in 2016.
In terms of the oil - exporting countries specifically, the decline in the average GDP growth (excluding Libya), from 4 percent in 2013, to 2.74 percent in 2014, and 2.5 percent in 2015, rose to 3.29 percent in 2016, with a forecast return to a decrease in in 2017 to 2.28 percent.
The Gulf Cooperation Council ( GCC ) have a growth rate in gross domestic product from 3.1 percent recorded in 2013, to 3.3 percent in 2014, and 3.4 percent in 2015 and 1.7 percent in 2016 with the expectation of his arrival to 2.3 percent in 2017.
The inflation rate witnessed in of Petroleum exporting countries , up from 2.5 percent in 2013, to 2.6 percent in 2014, and 3.7 percent in 2015 and 4.4 percent in 2016 and down 4.2 percent forecast by scoring at the end of 2017.
Despite these indicators, oil remains a significant income countries , which is produced by a source, but it came out of the boom circuit to stabilize the decline, which means the need for radical changes in the economic policies of the oil - producing countries in the coming years.[/rtl]
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