[size=30]Specialized expert: US measures will lead to changes in the trade structure of Iraq
[ltr]2023.02.09 - 12:21[/ltr]
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[ltr]2023.02.09 - 12:21[/ltr]
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Baghdad - people
The economist, Salam Jabbar, predicted expected changes in the Iraqi trade structure, in light of the recent US measures.
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Jabbar (PhD in Political Economy) said, in an article reviewed by "NAS" (February 9, 2023), "There is no evidence of American pressure on Iraq, or economic sanctions on it, or even on the current government. In fact, International money transfers require commercial traffic to comply with global anti-money laundering and terrorist financing provisions.”
He added, "The government needs to push the facilities for selling currency to suppliers of food and basic necessities, in exchange for focusing on the role of the economic security detachments, by issuing a central pricing regulation for basic food commodities in cooperation with chambers of commerce that is binding and circulates in the markets."
He pointed out that "the improvement in oil prices and the expansion of government expenditures leads to the flight of funds outside Iraq, as it indicates in the five years 2007-2011 the loss of (33) billion dollars from the Iraqi balance of payments."
And between, "The unregulated nature of the Iraqi economy withdrew to monetary and financial transactions, which is characterized in part by not being subject to regular procedures, which made the impact of the new measures more severe on the informal local market, more than the formal economic activities."
He pointed out that "the Iraqi dinar cannot be linked to a basket of global currencies - from a practical point of view - because it has risks to the Iraqi monetary and financial system, and it may go beyond those risks."
And he added, "The new controls require high levels of disclosure and transparency, and therefore it was a shock to many Iraqi banks that were not accustomed to this level of scrutiny, which caused a rush to demand dollars."
He added, "Iraq's trade relations with neighboring countries will be affected, depending on the measures taken by the US Treasury, and perhaps the strict measures will lead to changes in the trade structure of Iraq."
And between, "The Middle East region will suffer in the current year a crisis of economic recession, due to the economic weakness due to economic sanctions and controls on the movement of cash."
Below is an excerpt from the analysis:
Although the currency depreciation does not seem dramatic in Iraq, especially compared to other countries in the region, it has caused a state of panic among Iraqi citizens who fear the high prices of imported food commodities such as wheat, especially if we know that (70-80%) ) of nutritional needs come from the outside. This caused an activity related to currency speculation, which affected the value of the Iraqi dinar against foreign currencies, including the dollar.
Some of them believe that what is happening is a result of US sanctions on Iraq and the financial system in Iraq, and some consider it a political targeting intended to weaken a specific political group, or obstruct the work of the Iraqi government. to weaken the Iraqi dinar, and to expose the Iraqi economy to danger, as well as to expand poverty; Because of the curtailment of Iraq's commercial relations with the outside, and the reduction of opportunities for trade exchange. Others find it attempts to prevent the flight of capital from Iraq, or perhaps an attempt to pressure towards improving bureaucratic practices in Iraqi banks, and improving the system of circulation of information and financial data. Others also find that such measures may enhance the level of employment in the local economy, and thus reduce imports and the exit of national capital abroad.
actions, not penalties
There is no evidence of US pressure on Iraq, or economic sanctions against it, or even against the current government. In fact, international money transfers from commercial traffic require compliance with global anti-money laundering provisions, anti-terrorism financing provisions, and sanctions provisions such as those that apply. On some countries in the world, including neighboring countries to Iraq, including those related to the war on Russia and conflicts in the Middle East, as well as China's involvement in the region. Therefore, the need to implement the new procedures requires a higher level of disclosure and transparency to international banks, which are relatively unavailable in Iraqi banks. These measures also come against the backdrop of the "theft of the century" scandal, in which $2.6 billion of corporate tax money deposited in a government bank was smuggled.
The inability of local banks to respond to the new procedures, and that part of the cash transfers in Iraq is in the form of transfers, or by way that takes place outside the banking system, which has led - since the implementation of those procedures in November 2022 - to the suspension of (80%) of the funds Iraq's sovereign deposited in the United States by the US Federal Reserve Bank; Because of doubts about the final destination of these transfers.
Therefore, the procedure can be considered a temporary situation that will end as soon as the new conditions are complied with, or perhaps the procedures for applying those conditions will be eased until all Iraqi banks absorb these procedures. The Iraqi government has taken new measures and facilities aimed at mitigating the impact of those measures, including selling currency to merchants at the official rates of the Central Bank of Iraq.
Quoted from "The Statement"
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