An American analysis warns of the collapse of the "paper alliance" in the Kurdistan region
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Baghdad Today - Follow-up
An analysis of the American magazine "Foreign Policy" drew a bleak future for the situation in the Kurdistan region of Iraq, predicting the collapse of the fragile "paper alliance" between the two main ruling parties (the Kurdistan Democratic Party and the Patriotic Union) due to divisions, a decline in freedoms, and corruption.
The analysis written by the American journalist residing in Sulaymaniyah, Winthrop Rodgers, says that the Kurdistan region was once a "bright spot" in the chaos that occurred after 2003, with expectations that it will be a center for democracy and economic development in the Middle East.
The analysis adds that "the situation in the semi-autonomous region appears bleak today, in light of political institutions torn apart by partisan divisions and the control of leaders who deprive their citizens of freedom of expression."
In addition, the writer points out that "economic inequality and lack of opportunities have caused waves of immigrants looking for a better life abroad."
And the writer continues, "Partisan relations in the region are considered a key to obtaining a job, starting a business, and winning legal disputes," while the Peshmerga forces and security forces in each region have "their party affiliations as well."
The analysis quotes Erbil-based journalist Niaz Abdullah as saying that "according to the law of the Kurdistan Regional Government, political parties should not have armed forces."
He adds, "However, this situation is blatantly ignored on the ground, and when any conflict arises between political parties, there is a direct danger of it developing into an armed conflict."
The two main parties in the Kurdistan Democratic Region and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan ostensibly agreed to put aside their decades-old differences after the fall of the former regime in 2003.
The United States played a major role in mediating an end to the civil war in the region in the 1990s and encouraging Kurdish unity in post-Saddam Iraq.
The writer says, "The competition between the two parties increased significantly after the local elections that took place in 2018, which witnessed the emergence of a new generation of leaders who do not care much about pragmatism as much as they care about self-interest and factionalism."
The writer suggests that the United States and Western countries play a greater role in order to put pressure on the leaders of the region in order to achieve the interests of their people.
It calls on the West to "use its influence and great capabilities to hold Kurdish leaders accountable for corruption and human rights violations instead of strengthening them by providing them with military and political support."
He adds that "Western diplomats should speak publicly about violations inside Iraqi Kurdistan as soon as they occur, and show solidarity with detained human rights defenders, women's rights activists and journalists."
The writer believes that this matter "will be in the interest of Western governments, given that poverty, lack of opportunities, and restrictions on freedom of expression and assembly are incubators of instability and conflict."
“It will also help European countries address some of the root causes of the migration crisis,” according to the author, who notes that “although Iraqi Kurdistan has been relatively more stable than other parts of the country, this stability is not guaranteed.”
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