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Established in 2006 as a Community of Reality

Welcome to the Neno's Place!

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I can be reached by phone or text 8am-7pm cst 972-768-9772 or, once joining the board I can be reached by a (PM) Private Message.

Established in 2006 as a Community of Reality

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    Carnegie Center: edit Mosul would reopen the debate on the controversial future of Iraq

    Rocky
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    Carnegie Center: edit Mosul would reopen the debate on the controversial future of Iraq Empty Carnegie Center: edit Mosul would reopen the debate on the controversial future of Iraq

    Post by Rocky Wed 25 May 2016, 3:34 am

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    Carnegie Center: edit Mosul would reopen the debate on the controversial future of Iraq


     Baghdad / term 

    Kurds and Arabs agree on the effect of Baghdad, the bad, but they disagree about the survival of Iraq as a single state
     
    Still edit Mosul, the second largest city in Iraq, is a top priority for most of the actors involved in the campaign against al Daash. The KRG and Peshmerga forces its government ally of president in this battle. It is unlikely to send the KRG Peshmerga units to Mosul itself, because it is predominantly Sunni Muslim city is not claimed by the Kurdish leadership does not compete with them in order to be part of its territory - and the direct involvement of the Peshmerga in the battle is a prerequisite. Instead, the focus is on creating the political groundwork in Mosul to the post - overthrow of the militant group. 
    The anticipation of a power vacuum in Mosul , in the end, the Kurdistan Regional Government began planning what will happen next in this city , which is located just one hour's drive from Erbil , the provincial capital.Consequently, the Kurds in mind three priorities: 
    First, the Kurds do not want to stay Daash within walking distance of the Kurdistan region in any way distance. This is not composed only of the need to defeat the organization and, but also the need to ensure that once again appears poses a threat. 
    Second, the Kurds do not want to take advantage of the Iraqi central government, especially the paramilitary Shiite groups under the umbrella of the popular crowd, the restoration of Mosul to re - impose Baghdad authority in the region. As Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al - Abadi pointed out repeatedly, the popular crowd forces are part of the state , which pays its members ' salaries and coordinate military with their leaders. 
    Third, does not want the Kurds to the upcoming local government includes in Mosul , Iraqis years do not like friendlier for the Kurds, former Kalpathein. 
    Goal of the Kurds President is the presence of their allies in the city of their business support for the Kurdistan Regional government , which has been negotiated with the central government 's policies. These policies have focused generally on strengthening the autonomy of the regions and the provinces and greater access to thenational income share. 
    However , the implications of what happens in Mosul , in the end will not be limited to Mosul and by, it may be that, for the Kurds in particular, as a final test of the ability of Iraq to manage its communities Btnoatha sectarian and ethnic effectively, and the performance of its functions as a federal state , one. So, the Kurds are planning for the future from now. 
    Will require the issue of preventing the return of Daash after his defeat in Mosul, cooperation with tribal and local powers and neighboring countries that have the means to keep control of the city and the surrounding areas of military capability. 
    Saadi beer, official external relations bureau of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan , he assured the writer that his party (which is part of the ruling coalition in the Kurdistan Regional Government) has good relations with many of these tribes, and included in this list tribes fennel poof and Jabour and iron, all of which are essential partner in the liberation of the areas controlled by the organization Daash. 
    cooperates Kurdistan Democratic party , also with Sunni Arab tribal forces. For example, the murderer of theKurdistan Democratic Party and members of the Shammar tribe together against Daash in Rabia , in October 2014, and forced him to withdraw from this border town. This includes cooperation between the two parties also military training. 
    He said Hemin Hawrami, an official Office of Foreign Relations of the Kurdistan Democratic Party, the writer that the units of his party Peshmerga has provided the camps of training, in the towns of Nuaran and drunk, to help the Sunni forces in readiness to fight. 
    As cooperate Kurdistan Democratic Party leadership with paramilitary forces belonging to Turkey, and with which it has strong economic and security relations, including the "National crowd forces" led Liberation ofIraq, the governor of Nineveh former, who lives in Erbil since Nzoha from Mosul in the summer of 2014. 
    he said Najafi , the writer said his forces comprising about 4 thousand fighters outside Mosul and thousands others within the city, and they are ready to launch a resistance operations. 
    has Najafi, who was the brother of Osama one of Iraq 's vice president until 2015, with the support of Turkey , which intends to remain influential in Mosul after output Daash them. According to reports, it has been published about 1,200 Turkish soldiers, in addition to hundreds of military vehicles in Iraq in preparation for the liberation of the city. Kurdistan Democratic Party and wants to cooperate with Najafi is not to ensure thedefeat Bdaash and, but also, and more importantly, so that the security agencies are in Mosul after so friendly towards the Kurdistan Regional Government. 
    The political and military influence of the central government in Iraq is another factor of concern you want tolead the region Kurdistan away from its borders. In order to avoid any kind of interference, the KRG would like to expand the scope of decentralization in a federal Iraqi state (that were not confederation). Although the Kurdish leadership officially declares that the local leaders in Mosul deciding on the sentence , which they wish to adopt a system in their areas, but the Kurds certainly prefer a system limiting the influence of Baghdad dramatically. Official in the security of the Kurdistan Regional Council has expressed this position best expression when he told Newsweek magazine: the idea of the central government has failed in Baghdad ... the Kurds, Sunnis and Shiites do not trust each other, and the only way by which to address this is to allow local areas and provinces to organize its own affairs. " 
    to implement this agenda, some Kurds are ready to support change the administrative status of the province of Nineveh , where Mosul is located, from province to province. According to Article 115 of the Iraqi Constitution of 2005, each province has the right to form a region at the request of site one - third of themembers to maintain at least the Council or of ten registered voters in the province. 
    the region has greater autonomy of the province. as for the region to exercise executive, legislative and judicial authorities may, in accordance with the Constitution ( with the exception of some of the authorities that are subject exclusively to the central government authority). More importantly, it may be amendment to the regions if federal legislation conflicted with regional laws. 
    so far, the Kurdistan regional government is the only one that has become a territory. I tried other provinces such as Diyala and Basra to do so, but it failed because of the intervention of the central government when Nuri al - Maliki as prime minister. Maliki has used his influence on the Independent Electoral Commission (which has the power to private management and supervision of referendums on the establishment ofregions) to object to these attempts. For the Kurds, the Baghdad confirmed the refusal to grant status of theterritory to the provinces that met the constitutional conditions for this, doubts about the nature of the Iraqi federal system today. 
    It seems that most of the Sunni Arab leaders embrace the idea of the transfer of power away from Baghdad as well. Even Sunni Arab leaders who opposed federalism in the early years after the US invasion, they now see it as the best political system for Iraq. 
    It is believed Ahmed Kani, a member of the Kurdistan Democratic Party political bureau member and head of the Office of National Relations in the party, also that year finally starting to realize that there is no system more political decentralization is the best for their cause. 
    in one case , the amounts which he called Mudar Shawkat, who formed in 2015 , a political coalition thatbears the name of "National salvation Front", to establish a Sunni regional government along the lines of theKurdistan regional Government, which comprises several governorates. The article said the clerk that the KRG supports the move "Recognizing that it is also in danger, and scared about what will happen if the Sunni forces retreated" in the face of the Shiite paramilitary forces associated with Baghdad. 
    Preferably Arab leaders and other years, such as the brothers Najafi, is not configured Sunni province widely, but in favor of commitment to the constitutional provisions and the formation of regions on the basis ofindividual provinces, some of which includes a mix of Scania 's races and religions different. However, the year the experience during the reign of al - Maliki led them to the conclusion that the leadership that the Shiite -dominated central government will oppose probably any process moving in the direction of decentralization. 
    In the meantime, the Kurdish leaders also need to reduce military influence of the central government along borders Kurdistan and the Nineveh province. Kurds are thought to be one of the means to achieve this is tocreate a buffer zone manned by their allies among Sunni Arabs, and contribute to neutralize potential threats posed by the popular crowd. 
    It is feared the Kurds that you get the Shiite paramilitary units a foothold near the Kurdish areas, Masaada to clashes with groups Peshmerga. This has already happened several times, for example in April 2016 in the city of Tuz Khurmatu. As well as the fear of the possibility that raises the presence of the popular crowd supporter feelings for the organization Daash in Mosul and in the whole region. For this reason take over Irbil interest to support local forces to organize the liberated areas, in order to prevent the entry of groups that Stnasb inevitably communities Sunni hostility. 
    Throw the other goal for the Kurdistan Regional Government to ensure that the future political elite are in Mosul and other Sunni Arab areas that are cleared of organizing Daash and friendly towards the Kurds. 
    for the officials in the Kurdistan region, enjoys having friendly relations with Sunni Arabs strategic importance.Preassigned alliance between the Kurds and the Sunnis, for the time being, it may be the cornerstone of the political alliance aims to rein unreliable Shiite - dominated government in Baghdad. At the national level in 2012, for example, the parliamentary bloc of secular led by Iyad Allawi, which accounted for much of theSunni Arabs (although Allawi , himself a Shiite) , a key partner of the Kurds in their quest to oust al - Maliki by offering no - confidence motion in parliament . The attempt failed, but the incident showed the Kurds need tofind allies in parliament to oppose the takeover of Baghdad 's power. 
    In fact , the Kurds and the Sunni Arabs held a marriage amicably somewhat based on their common interests about the external threat of Baghdad. As a multi - ethnic city of Mosul, including the local government in thecity , representatives of the Kurds. Vbashar Kiki, head of the Nineveh provincial council, a Kurd , for example.According to Kiki, the Kurdistan region is linked to a very strong relationship with his council, and will continue to be coordination between the two sides. 
    Mosul , a Sunni Arab city essentially has the leadership of the Kurdistan Regional Government formed anetwork of Arab Sunni allies of the city, and had some relations with the Government of the Territory before taken over by the organization. Relations between the Kurds and Sunni Arabs have been improved in the wake of the exodus of much of the Sunni Arab leadership after the June 2016 
    and the impact of a lot of these people - from former and elders officials and dignitaries , religious - to move to the Kurdistan region which is witnessing relative stability, to flee to Baghdad unstable and dominated by Shiites. 
    gained the Kurdistan Regional government considerable influence through the provision of shelter for theleaders of the Sunni Arabs, and took their plight to confirm that the Iraqi central government has failed to represent the Arab Sunni population properly. Through discredit the authorities in Baghdad, the Kurds facilitates the process of keeping them far from Mosul, and working at the same time to strengthen their ties with Sunni Arabs in Iraq , and their leaders, who hoped the Kurds to help them on their involvement in power in the city. This will allow the Kurds to submit their project for the establishment of a buffer zone between theKurdistan region and the Arab areas that may not be stable in the north of Iraq, especially if Daash re -emerged in these regions. , 
    Said an official from the Office of the Prime Minister of the Kurdistan Regional Government to the author of the article that the Kurdish support includes the provision of personal security and funding initiatives for selected leaders of the Sunni Arabs. It has been introduced to provide a personal security guard and dwelling on the many displaced from Arab Sunni politicians, elders and clerics, among other services. The more therelationship with them stronger, the more aid from them , the Kurdistan Regional Government. 
    One of the most powerful Sunni allies of the Kurdistan Regional Government is an example of al - Alusi, who was a member of the Iraqi parliament until 2010. Alusi live in the Kurdistan region since 2011, when it forced him to organize threats Al - Qaeda and the Shiite paramilitaries asylum there. The head of the Kurdistan Regional Government , Massoud Barzani , has offered in the past to provide security protection for theguardian, and will continue to support the national level. 
    Although the Kurdish leadership will avoid influencing the Sunni representatives publicly, but Alusi person you want to play a prominent role in Baghdad , through the support of common goals for the Arabs Sunnis and Kurds. 
    The Mudar Shawkat also another ally of Sunni Arabs , Kurds. It declared clearly about the formation of theNational Salvation Front in Erbil International Hotel in the presence of senior Kurdish leaders, including Ahmed Kani. He said Shaukat said that " the Kurdistan Democratic Party wants the leadership [in Mosul] can formpartnerships with them," which is shared with the Kurds a close relationship with the United States, which is apriority for the Kurdistan Regional Government. 
    But complicating the situation is that the relations of whom are Kurds Arab in Mosul was tense until recently, during the boards of the Iraqi provinces of the 2009 elections, compete Liberation of Iraq with Kurdish parties in Nineveh, and called for the full and unconditional withdrawal of Kurdish forces from the province.Interestingly, it was the then enjoys the support of the central government. 
    Although today the rapprochement between the Sunni Arab leaders who hail from Mosul and the Kurds, is still a possibility the deterioration of relations between the two parties. Currently they have common interests, they face two enemies Subscribers: Daash and Shiite paramilitary groups. And are likely to continue their cooperation as long as these threats are looming on the horizon. 
    Still edit Mosul elusive at the present time dream. As the Kurds and the Sunni Arab leaders agree that theexpulsion of Daash will not require a military force, but also launch a political initiative can restore Sunni support disadvantaged people between their positions at present between the support Daash in their areas or indifference to them. 
    In order to overcome Sunni representation crisis, insists some Kurdish officials and Sunni Arabs on the need toreduce the role of Baghdad, in particular through the paramilitary groups sponsored, in Mosul and other predominantly Sunni areas where the remains Daash active. 
    for the United States, which is leading international efforts to restore Mosul, indicating support for thePeshmerga forces in Kurdistan region to the importance of the role played by Kurds in determining theoutcome that can enhance the gains that have been achieved against the militant group. 
    it seemed so clear when US Secretary of defense Ashton Carter announced in April 2016 to provide direct financial payment of 415 million units of Peshmerga, what constitutes circumvention of the Iraqi central government. 
    It will be for this unprecedented step of reflections on the legitimacy of actors , non-state in Iraq, and perhaps on the political structure of the country at the end. In fact, this approach could be extended to include local leaders in Mosul, while moving away international actors from the central state in its interaction with Iraq. 
    If the primary concern is to ensure Daash not reappear after the overthrow future - either in its current form or under another name - it is important for the Iraqi central government absorbing Nineveh 's population, including local tribes, by providing them with the necessary economic development and financial means. 
    this will serve to erect barriers against the return of al Daash, because the provincial councils and tribes benefit from sufficient revenues allow them to manage their own affairs. It can not refer to al - Maliki 's policy marked by the imposition of central authority and the marginalization of the year, the emergence of Mashl Daash in origin. 
    But the most important is to restore the connector will reopen the controversial debate about the future ofIraq. So, now the Kurds seek to lay the foundations to ensure the victory of their vision, but that will not pass without consequences. Although the Kurds and Sunni Arabs may disagree on the effect of Baghdad , the bad, but they differ on whether Iraq should remain one country - especially in the absence of a unified vision even in the ranks of Sunni Arabs themselves on the state to yearn. 
    May constitute liberalization city of Mosul , a critical juncture Iraqi state that have not yet reached to theformulation of a national political consensus guarantor arrangement satisfying all of its communities. 
    * Renad Mansour: Iraqi researcher at the Carnegie Middle East Center

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