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[size=39]After the elections.. Iraq between rise or chaos[/size]
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Nidal Mansour
October 21, 2021
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[size=39]After the elections.. Iraq between rise or chaos[/size]
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Nidal Mansour
October 21, 2021
[/size]
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After the announcement of the preliminary results of the Iraqi parliamentary elections, which resulted in an astonishing victory and progress for the "Sadr movement", and a crushing defeat for the Al-Fateh coalition, I put my hand on my heart in fear and apprehension over Iraq from the outbreak of armed conflict.
I went back to the words of the leaders of the "Popular Mobilization", Hadi al-Amiri and Faleh al-Fayyad, during the Rafidain Forum last month in Baghdad, as they attribute the credit to the survival and steadfastness of the Iraqi state and not to collapse, and to prevent the coup against it, to the Popular Mobilization, as if they were saying, "We are the state." The resounding loss of the elections for the "Al-Fateh" bloc, the political umbrella of the Popular Mobilization, which is the closest and most pro-Iranian, seems not easy, and surrendering to the idea of new transformations, in the Iraqi scene, that they are outside the game of power is difficult to accept.
The preliminary reading of the election results indicates that Iran's closest allies lost their advanced positions in parliament. The Sadrist movement won 73 seats, followed by the "Progress Alliance" led by Parliament Speaker Muhammad al-Halbousi with 37 seats, then the State of Law coalition led by Nuri al-Maliki with 34 seats, the Democratic Party The Kurdistan Region, led by Masoud Barzani, with 32 seats, followed by the Fatah Alliance led by Hadi al-Amiri with 18 seats.
The Iraqi parliament elections, which includes 329 seats, were not without other surprises, such as the emergence of independent votes that won 40 seats, including 15 deputies representing the "Tishreen Movement", not to mention the victory of 97 women outside the quota.
The losers in the elections did not accept the results, and the fear is not from 1,300 appeals submitted to the Independent High Electoral Commission, but rather from threats, blackmailing the state, and seeking to defeat it in the street with non-peaceful protests.
The so-called coordinating body of the Iraqi opposition warned of the country's reaching the brink of the abyss, and considered that foreign hands had tampered with the elections, and that they were flagrantly rigged and under government supervision, and this led to the failure of the commission's work and its inability to stand in the face of foreign will.
A member of the political bureau of the Asa'ib al-Haq movement, which is affiliated with the Al-Fateh Alliance, Saad al-Saadi, did not give the Electoral Commission any choice but to correct the course, otherwise the country will enter a dark tunnel and unpleasant problems.
The disturbing question: Will these verbal threats continue to be skirmishes and balloons in the context of political strife, and will not depart from protests that can be contained and contained, or are they a prelude to a bloody armed conflict outside the ballot boxes?
Iraq is different from Lebanon, and the control of the Shiite forces loyal to Iran by force, and their control of the political path in Baghdad, as is the case with Hezbollah in Beirut, is difficult to verify, even if the popular crowd includes approximately 170,000 soldiers who have become part of the Iraqi armed forces.
There are many factors that create deterrence and a balance of power. The Shiites of Iraq are not a unified bloc that is inclined to Iran. The Sadrist movement seeks to consolidate the reference of Najaf al-Ashraf away from the reference of Wilayat al-Faqih in Iran, and identifies more with the Arab identity.
The other thing is that most political currents have armed militias, including the Sadrist movement. The PMF and its organizations may be considered the most armed and organized, but they are not unique.
What is important is that resorting to armed conflict will be fueled by a Shiite-Shiite conflict, and this will eventually lead to the end of Iranian influence in Iraq, and will nullify Iran’s image as a protective reference for Shiites everywhere, and most importantly - which reduces the chances of conflict - that the Shiite authority on Sistani has to say Separation, and he will not allow this transformation that will burn everything in Iraq and end the political process.
The map of alliances after the elections is important in building a vision for the future of Iraq, and the first headlines that can be read clearly is that the next government will have wider margins of independence away from the spheres of influence, the most obvious of which is the distance from Iran.
The Sadrist movement can lead an alliance government with the "progress" of the Sunni movement, led by Parliament Speaker, al-Halbousi, and the Kurdistan Democratic Party, and it includes a number of independent currents to form an overwhelming parliamentary majority that protects the government and forms a wall that prevents it from being blackmailed or subservient to local or regional political swaps.
Whether Muqtada al-Sadr chooses a prime minister from his political current, or agrees to push an independent figure to run the helm, the directions of the current Prime Minister, Mustafa Al-Kazemi, are the closest to continuing, building on the experience of the Baghdad Conference for Cooperation and Partnership, and consolidating the independence of Iraq so that it does not remain an arena for conflict and settling accounts. Regional and international logic will prevail, which will find international support.
Attention in Iraq is directed to the fate of the appeals in the elections, and to the position of the leader of the Sadrist movement after he formed a committee for negotiations to form a government.
Al-Sadr realizes by his uniqueness at the forefront of the elections that his political fluctuations after today will be costly, and will not find acceptance. He possesses the key to power, and he is the captain who leads it. He knows that threats are directed against him before others, and is trying to force him to compromise in advance, and to accept bartering on his agenda.
Muqtada al-Sadr anticipates his upcoming political battles with a tweet bearing reassurance for those who want to understand them as well, and a warning and reprimand for those who want to besiege him.
His tweet on social media platforms says, "From now on, the elections and their results, and the consequent alliances, should not be a source of disagreements, differences, conflicts and clashes. Rather, fighting and destabilizing civil peace, harming the people and their security, and their strength, dignity and safety, should be prohibited and criminalized."
Al-Sadr completes his message to his friends and opponents: “We seek national alliances that are neither sectarian, nor ethnic, and under the tent of reform.” general for Iraq.
The early parliamentary elections, which are considered one of the demands of the "Tishreen Movement", may be the last chance to save Iraq, despite the passage of nearly two decades since the fall of Saddam Hussein's regime, Iraq has not built a state that transcends sectarian identities, and has established its dependence, and has become an arena of influence for countries and forces outside Iraq. And it became an example of the state's corruption and its failure to establish the rule of law and citizenship.
Rising up and getting rid of the “octopus” of the prevailing situation, the tyrannical forces are hard, and the bet is not on political currents that want change, but on a people whose blood paid a tax for a political struggle for power that only benefits ruin.
In summary: the elections and their results may be the key to change out of the crisis tunnel, and a roadmap for progress towards recovery and recovery. In the other direction, they may be a spark for a violent and bloody conflict that plunges the country into a spiral of chaos. What governs the conflict in Iraq is interests and influence first and foremost.
[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]
I went back to the words of the leaders of the "Popular Mobilization", Hadi al-Amiri and Faleh al-Fayyad, during the Rafidain Forum last month in Baghdad, as they attribute the credit to the survival and steadfastness of the Iraqi state and not to collapse, and to prevent the coup against it, to the Popular Mobilization, as if they were saying, "We are the state." The resounding loss of the elections for the "Al-Fateh" bloc, the political umbrella of the Popular Mobilization, which is the closest and most pro-Iranian, seems not easy, and surrendering to the idea of new transformations, in the Iraqi scene, that they are outside the game of power is difficult to accept.
The preliminary reading of the election results indicates that Iran's closest allies lost their advanced positions in parliament. The Sadrist movement won 73 seats, followed by the "Progress Alliance" led by Parliament Speaker Muhammad al-Halbousi with 37 seats, then the State of Law coalition led by Nuri al-Maliki with 34 seats, the Democratic Party The Kurdistan Region, led by Masoud Barzani, with 32 seats, followed by the Fatah Alliance led by Hadi al-Amiri with 18 seats.
The Iraqi parliament elections, which includes 329 seats, were not without other surprises, such as the emergence of independent votes that won 40 seats, including 15 deputies representing the "Tishreen Movement", not to mention the victory of 97 women outside the quota.
The losers in the elections did not accept the results, and the fear is not from 1,300 appeals submitted to the Independent High Electoral Commission, but rather from threats, blackmailing the state, and seeking to defeat it in the street with non-peaceful protests.
The so-called coordinating body of the Iraqi opposition warned of the country's reaching the brink of the abyss, and considered that foreign hands had tampered with the elections, and that they were flagrantly rigged and under government supervision, and this led to the failure of the commission's work and its inability to stand in the face of foreign will.
A member of the political bureau of the Asa'ib al-Haq movement, which is affiliated with the Al-Fateh Alliance, Saad al-Saadi, did not give the Electoral Commission any choice but to correct the course, otherwise the country will enter a dark tunnel and unpleasant problems.
The disturbing question: Will these verbal threats continue to be skirmishes and balloons in the context of political strife, and will not depart from protests that can be contained and contained, or are they a prelude to a bloody armed conflict outside the ballot boxes?
Iraq is different from Lebanon, and the control of the Shiite forces loyal to Iran by force, and their control of the political path in Baghdad, as is the case with Hezbollah in Beirut, is difficult to verify, even if the popular crowd includes approximately 170,000 soldiers who have become part of the Iraqi armed forces.
There are many factors that create deterrence and a balance of power. The Shiites of Iraq are not a unified bloc that is inclined to Iran. The Sadrist movement seeks to consolidate the reference of Najaf al-Ashraf away from the reference of Wilayat al-Faqih in Iran, and identifies more with the Arab identity.
The other thing is that most political currents have armed militias, including the Sadrist movement. The PMF and its organizations may be considered the most armed and organized, but they are not unique.
What is important is that resorting to armed conflict will be fueled by a Shiite-Shiite conflict, and this will eventually lead to the end of Iranian influence in Iraq, and will nullify Iran’s image as a protective reference for Shiites everywhere, and most importantly - which reduces the chances of conflict - that the Shiite authority on Sistani has to say Separation, and he will not allow this transformation that will burn everything in Iraq and end the political process.
The map of alliances after the elections is important in building a vision for the future of Iraq, and the first headlines that can be read clearly is that the next government will have wider margins of independence away from the spheres of influence, the most obvious of which is the distance from Iran.
The Sadrist movement can lead an alliance government with the "progress" of the Sunni movement, led by Parliament Speaker, al-Halbousi, and the Kurdistan Democratic Party, and it includes a number of independent currents to form an overwhelming parliamentary majority that protects the government and forms a wall that prevents it from being blackmailed or subservient to local or regional political swaps.
Whether Muqtada al-Sadr chooses a prime minister from his political current, or agrees to push an independent figure to run the helm, the directions of the current Prime Minister, Mustafa Al-Kazemi, are the closest to continuing, building on the experience of the Baghdad Conference for Cooperation and Partnership, and consolidating the independence of Iraq so that it does not remain an arena for conflict and settling accounts. Regional and international logic will prevail, which will find international support.
Attention in Iraq is directed to the fate of the appeals in the elections, and to the position of the leader of the Sadrist movement after he formed a committee for negotiations to form a government.
Al-Sadr realizes by his uniqueness at the forefront of the elections that his political fluctuations after today will be costly, and will not find acceptance. He possesses the key to power, and he is the captain who leads it. He knows that threats are directed against him before others, and is trying to force him to compromise in advance, and to accept bartering on his agenda.
Muqtada al-Sadr anticipates his upcoming political battles with a tweet bearing reassurance for those who want to understand them as well, and a warning and reprimand for those who want to besiege him.
His tweet on social media platforms says, "From now on, the elections and their results, and the consequent alliances, should not be a source of disagreements, differences, conflicts and clashes. Rather, fighting and destabilizing civil peace, harming the people and their security, and their strength, dignity and safety, should be prohibited and criminalized."
Al-Sadr completes his message to his friends and opponents: “We seek national alliances that are neither sectarian, nor ethnic, and under the tent of reform.” general for Iraq.
The early parliamentary elections, which are considered one of the demands of the "Tishreen Movement", may be the last chance to save Iraq, despite the passage of nearly two decades since the fall of Saddam Hussein's regime, Iraq has not built a state that transcends sectarian identities, and has established its dependence, and has become an arena of influence for countries and forces outside Iraq. And it became an example of the state's corruption and its failure to establish the rule of law and citizenship.
Rising up and getting rid of the “octopus” of the prevailing situation, the tyrannical forces are hard, and the bet is not on political currents that want change, but on a people whose blood paid a tax for a political struggle for power that only benefits ruin.
In summary: the elections and their results may be the key to change out of the crisis tunnel, and a roadmap for progress towards recovery and recovery. In the other direction, they may be a spark for a violent and bloody conflict that plunges the country into a spiral of chaos. What governs the conflict in Iraq is interests and influence first and foremost.
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