The population census under the microscope.. economic pessimism, governmental ambition and Kurdish fears[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]
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Baghdad today - Baghdad
The current Iraqi government's steps seem more serious to conduct the population census after all previous attempts failed, and with Prime Minister Muhammad Shia'a al-Sudani's approval of the National Document for Population Policies aimed at development, observers see several obstacles that may prevent the document from achieving its goals.
Last Wednesday, February 15, Prime Minister Muhammad Shia al-Sudani chaired a meeting of the Higher Population Council, during which the national document for updated population policies, submitted by the Ministerial Council for Human Development, was approved.
Al-Sudani stressed during the meeting, according to his office's statement, "the need to exert maximum efforts to conduct the population development census during this year," directing "to prepare all human, technical, financial and logistical capabilities and requirements required to complete this census."
He pointed out that the government relies on the importance of conducting the census in implementing government policies and achieving the goals of the government program, in addition to its importance in preparing future plans that help in the development and renaissance of society.
The Ministry of Planning confirms that the population census document aims to transform the population increase into effective engines.
The government’s approval of this document coincides with the end of the House of Representatives, the first reading of the draft provincial elections law, which appears to be in accordance with the old – controversial St. 2021.
Regarding the primary objective of the document, and whether it will achieve comprehensive development in all sectors, the official spokesperson for the Ministry of Planning, Abdul Zahra Al-Hindawi, answers this question by indicating that the document includes long-term policies to achieve decent living and prosperity in the economic and social fields.
In addition, the document works to absorb the population increase and transform it from development burdens into effective development engines while providing the basic requirements of life, according to Al-Hindawi, who added, "The document was updated by a specialized team from the Ministry of Planning in cooperation with the United Nations Population Fund, and it was based on variables." in the country over the past two years.
Contrary to Al-Hindawi's opinion, the economist Abdul Rahman Al-Sheikhly does not seem optimistic about the capabilities of the national document and its ability to achieve economic and social well-being for the Iraqi citizen.
From an economic point of view, the achievement of societal welfare at various levels and sectors is associated with what the population census will achieve in terms of a fair distribution of wealth to the people as approved by the constitution. However, Al-Sheikhly admits here that the census cannot succeed in achieving this goal, which means that it will fail to achieve any welfare. For the Iraqi citizen, as he put it.
Al-Sheikhly comments, saying: "What the national document for the census came with are nothing but attempts to earn and employ to serve the government program announced by Al-Sudani, to prove that it is moving in the right direction."
The economist reinforces his opinion by asking about the fate of the expatriate Iraqis and the demographic change that has changed the features of the country since 2003, as well as the situation of the displaced in the camps, with the existence of areas that no one can reach, in addition to all that granting more than 5 million people Iraqi nationality, "stressing, that "All of these reasons are sufficient reasons to refute and thwart what was stated in the national document," according to Al-Sheikhly.
As for the political level, there is a political necessity to conduct the census, which can turn into a message to the internal and external parties that the Sudanese government has succeeded in achieving what the previous governments failed to do, and this is what political analyst Ali Al-Baydar goes to, who added that it will enhance the country's oil exports, which will be reflected in on the size of the state budget.
Al-Baydar does not stop at this point, as he acknowledges that conducting the census in 2023 means that Al-Sudani is working to build state institutions properly, attributing the reason to the fact that he will address the level of corruption and reduce its size in many areas that have been dealt with according to estimates, in addition to that he will sort A kind of societal euphoria, as he put it.
Even if the census takes place, it will not change the map of the political weight in the country, says Haider al-Moussawi, a researcher in political affairs, who believes that the current population percentage at the level of sects is close to reality, commenting, "I do not think there is a difference that the Shiite component is the majority." population, followed by the Sunnis, and then the Kurds and other components.
Regarding the extent to which the results of the census affect regional distribution in political representation, whether in parliament or executive institutions, Al-Moussawi explains - in his interview with Al-Jazeera Net - that the population census has nothing to do with increasing political representation in executive and legislative institutions.
It is expected that the results of the census will produce different estimates of the situation of the Turkmen in the disputed areas, especially with regard to the problem of Kirkuk, in which the results of the recent legislative elections were completely different from what is said in reality about the numerical majority of the dominant components in it.
The lack of agreement between the political forces between the region and Baghdad on a specific mechanism for the future of what is known as the "disputed areas", according to Article 140 of the Iraqi constitution, is one of the main reasons that have impeded conducting a comprehensive population census in the country so far.
Regarding the fate of the Kurds in the event of a census being conducted, especially in those areas, and the possibility of changing their reality and their political weight in them, the Kurdish political researcher Adalat Abdullah answers this question by saying, "Their situation in the disputed areas will be very embarrassing."
Abdullah - who works as a professor of media at the University of Sulaymaniyah - attributes the reasons for this to the failure to implement the constitutional article on normalization in these regions and ending the effects of Arabization policies in them, in addition to major demographic transgressions that occurred during different eras, as he put it.
He points out that Kurdish leaders in Iraq must demand justice and implement the stages stipulated in Article 140 of the constitution, commenting, "After that, the census must include the provinces that fall within this constitutional article."
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