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[size=35][size=35]Analysis and comparisons.. Why are the Ministry of Interior’s numbers regarding a decrease in crimes during 2023 “questionable”?[/size]
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2023-12-31 | 03:40
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Alsumaria News - Exclusive
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Among these exciting statistics issued by the Interior Ministry is a decrease in the crime rate in Iraq by 20%, a decrease in criminal incidents to 40%, a decrease in terrorist incidents to 46%, and a decrease in human trafficking by 80%, In addition to saying that great strides have been made in the field of drug trafficking. Despite conflicting numbers regarding the number of drug arrests.
*The first weak point: abstract statistics without numbers.
One of the most important indicators, observations and weaknesses in these statistics is that they came as “abstract” statistics, that is, they are claims that are not accompanied by evidence. According to the literature of statistics and data science, the Ministry of Interior must announce the numbers related to the year 2022 and the year 2022. 2023, in order to compare the two years and verify the true percentage of decline mentioned.
For example, the Ministry of Interior or the competent security authorities do not provide updated statistics on the number of cases and victims of criminal crimes and crimes in general of various types, or the number of terrorist incidents and their locations, or incidents and cases and the number of detainees for human trafficking, for the years 2022 and then for the year 2023, in order to compare the numbers and identify them. On the size of the decrease.
*Linguistic weaknesses that affect statistics
The language of statistics is not only a language of numbers, but the use of a single letter in the wrong place may affect the entire numerical result, according to specialists.
In an example of this, the Ministry of Interior used an expression in one of the statistics by saying that the crime rate decreased by 20%, but did not clarify what is meant by crime? As it is known that crime is theft, murder, or other incidents that represent crimes, or that the expression is Regarding crime, it is organized crime, which includes murder, human and drug smuggling, and other cross-border crimes, but Dakhla merely said that crime has decreased by 20% without clarifying the definition of crime and its numbers in 2022 and 2023 to verify the fact of its decrease.
Another confusing linguistic expression is the Interior Ministry’s statement that criminal incidents decreased “to 40%” and terrorist incidents “to 46%.” Saying that incidents decreased “by 40%” is completely different from saying that they decreased “to 40%.”
A decrease of 40% means that it has lost 40% of its numbers, but a decrease to 40% means that it has lost 60% of its numbers. It is not known what the Interior Ministry means: Did criminal incidents decrease by 40% or 60%?
*What about global statistics regarding Iraq?
There is no doubt that the security situation has improved[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]It is very clear to every observer compared to previous years, especially the situation related to the security of citizens, and this is what makes the Interior Ministry’s statements relatively correct in principle, but questionable in terms of numbers and rates of decline, and that the rates of decline may be less or more.
*Crime in[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]...a slight decrease in 2023
Regarding crime, Van[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]In 2023, it ranked 74th globally, with a number of crime points amounting to 46.02 points, compared to 2022, it ranked 72nd, with a number of crime points amounting to 46.17. This means that[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]Its crime rate score decreased very slightly, and it witnessed a relative improvement compared to 2022, which led to it rising two places, according to the Nimbo Crime Index. This small percentage makes the Interior Ministry talk about a decrease in crime in[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]A 20% reduction, or a 40% reduction in criminal incidents, is relatively doubtful.
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*Organized crime in[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]...a relative increase in 2023.
As for organized crime, which includes “human smuggling and trafficking, drugs, murder, and robbery,” it reached a number of points[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]In organized crime in 2023, it reached 7.13 out of 10, which is higher than the last statistic of the Global Organized Crime Index in 2021, which then reached points.[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]7.05.
And he came[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]It ranked eighth globally in 2023, which is the same as in 2021, but its rank rose in West Asian countries to be the first in organized crime in West Asia during 2023, an increase from its rank in 2021, which was second place, and it was also fourth in the Asian continent in 2021, rising to rank. The second in Asia in 2023, according to the Global Organized Crime Index.
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*Terrorist incidents:
While the Interior Ministry spokesman says that terrorist incidents are in...[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]It decreased to 46%, and it is not known whether he meant it decreased by 46% or decreased by 54% to reach 46%, due to the use of the expression “to” which changes the result.
On the other hand, an investigation conducted by the British BBC indicates that...[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]in[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]A total of 141 attacks were claimed in 2023, compared to 401 attacks in the same period last year, which represents a decrease of 65%, meaning that in any case, the percentage of decrease in the number of terrorist incidents is greater than what was announced by the Iraqi Interior Ministry, and the Interior Ministry did not reveal the number The numbers for last year and the current year, which makes the percentage you announced questionable.
It should be noted that there was no decrease in terrorist incidents[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]Only in Syria, which is still hot, the organization claimed responsibility for 112 attacks this year, a decrease from 292 attacks last year, which means a 62% decrease in activity.[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]in Syria.
*Trafficking in Human Beings
While the Ministry of Interior says that human trafficking has decreased in...[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]By 80%, it is not known whether you mean that cases of trafficking have decreased or whether they have decreased as a result of the increase in the number of prosecutions of human traffickers as a result of “an increase in the number of detainees for this crime by 80%,” as the number came in abstract form without a clear disclosure of the standard adopted to measure the percentage of decrease.
However, the Global Organized Crime Index indicates that[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]Its score for human trafficking in 2023 was 7.5 out of 10, a decrease from its score in 2021 of 8 points.
Although a decrease has actually been achieved, this decrease is a “decimal” from 8 to 7.5, i.e. a percentage decrease of approximately 7%, not 80%.
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2023-12-31 | 03:40
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714 views
Alsumaria News - Exclusive
During the past few days, the Iraqi Ministry of Interior, through its spokesman, Brigadier General Miqdad Miri al-Moussawi, issued a number of “exciting” statistics regarding the decrease in crime, criminal and terrorist incidents, human and drug trafficking, and other important security files. However, most of these statistics are... It raises doubts about its numbers, in addition to its lack of statistical controls that allow it to be dealt with accurately by those interested and specialized in statistical data.
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Among these exciting statistics issued by the Interior Ministry is a decrease in the crime rate in Iraq by 20%, a decrease in criminal incidents to 40%, a decrease in terrorist incidents to 46%, and a decrease in human trafficking by 80%, In addition to saying that great strides have been made in the field of drug trafficking. Despite conflicting numbers regarding the number of drug arrests.
*The first weak point: abstract statistics without numbers.
One of the most important indicators, observations and weaknesses in these statistics is that they came as “abstract” statistics, that is, they are claims that are not accompanied by evidence. According to the literature of statistics and data science, the Ministry of Interior must announce the numbers related to the year 2022 and the year 2022. 2023, in order to compare the two years and verify the true percentage of decline mentioned.
For example, the Ministry of Interior or the competent security authorities do not provide updated statistics on the number of cases and victims of criminal crimes and crimes in general of various types, or the number of terrorist incidents and their locations, or incidents and cases and the number of detainees for human trafficking, for the years 2022 and then for the year 2023, in order to compare the numbers and identify them. On the size of the decrease.
*Linguistic weaknesses that affect statistics
The language of statistics is not only a language of numbers, but the use of a single letter in the wrong place may affect the entire numerical result, according to specialists.
In an example of this, the Ministry of Interior used an expression in one of the statistics by saying that the crime rate decreased by 20%, but did not clarify what is meant by crime? As it is known that crime is theft, murder, or other incidents that represent crimes, or that the expression is Regarding crime, it is organized crime, which includes murder, human and drug smuggling, and other cross-border crimes, but Dakhla merely said that crime has decreased by 20% without clarifying the definition of crime and its numbers in 2022 and 2023 to verify the fact of its decrease.
Another confusing linguistic expression is the Interior Ministry’s statement that criminal incidents decreased “to 40%” and terrorist incidents “to 46%.” Saying that incidents decreased “by 40%” is completely different from saying that they decreased “to 40%.”
A decrease of 40% means that it has lost 40% of its numbers, but a decrease to 40% means that it has lost 60% of its numbers. It is not known what the Interior Ministry means: Did criminal incidents decrease by 40% or 60%?
*What about global statistics regarding Iraq?
There is no doubt that the security situation has improved[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]It is very clear to every observer compared to previous years, especially the situation related to the security of citizens, and this is what makes the Interior Ministry’s statements relatively correct in principle, but questionable in terms of numbers and rates of decline, and that the rates of decline may be less or more.
*Crime in[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]...a slight decrease in 2023
Regarding crime, Van[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]In 2023, it ranked 74th globally, with a number of crime points amounting to 46.02 points, compared to 2022, it ranked 72nd, with a number of crime points amounting to 46.17. This means that[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]Its crime rate score decreased very slightly, and it witnessed a relative improvement compared to 2022, which led to it rising two places, according to the Nimbo Crime Index. This small percentage makes the Interior Ministry talk about a decrease in crime in[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]A 20% reduction, or a 40% reduction in criminal incidents, is relatively doubtful.
[You must be registered and logged in to see this image.]
*Organized crime in[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]...a relative increase in 2023.
As for organized crime, which includes “human smuggling and trafficking, drugs, murder, and robbery,” it reached a number of points[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]In organized crime in 2023, it reached 7.13 out of 10, which is higher than the last statistic of the Global Organized Crime Index in 2021, which then reached points.[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]7.05.
And he came[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]It ranked eighth globally in 2023, which is the same as in 2021, but its rank rose in West Asian countries to be the first in organized crime in West Asia during 2023, an increase from its rank in 2021, which was second place, and it was also fourth in the Asian continent in 2021, rising to rank. The second in Asia in 2023, according to the Global Organized Crime Index.
[You must be registered and logged in to see this image.]
*Terrorist incidents:
While the Interior Ministry spokesman says that terrorist incidents are in...[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]It decreased to 46%, and it is not known whether he meant it decreased by 46% or decreased by 54% to reach 46%, due to the use of the expression “to” which changes the result.
On the other hand, an investigation conducted by the British BBC indicates that...[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]in[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]A total of 141 attacks were claimed in 2023, compared to 401 attacks in the same period last year, which represents a decrease of 65%, meaning that in any case, the percentage of decrease in the number of terrorist incidents is greater than what was announced by the Iraqi Interior Ministry, and the Interior Ministry did not reveal the number The numbers for last year and the current year, which makes the percentage you announced questionable.
It should be noted that there was no decrease in terrorist incidents[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]Only in Syria, which is still hot, the organization claimed responsibility for 112 attacks this year, a decrease from 292 attacks last year, which means a 62% decrease in activity.[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]in Syria.
*Trafficking in Human Beings
While the Ministry of Interior says that human trafficking has decreased in...[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]By 80%, it is not known whether you mean that cases of trafficking have decreased or whether they have decreased as a result of the increase in the number of prosecutions of human traffickers as a result of “an increase in the number of detainees for this crime by 80%,” as the number came in abstract form without a clear disclosure of the standard adopted to measure the percentage of decrease.
However, the Global Organized Crime Index indicates that[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]Its score for human trafficking in 2023 was 7.5 out of 10, a decrease from its score in 2021 of 8 points.
Although a decrease has actually been achieved, this decrease is a “decimal” from 8 to 7.5, i.e. a percentage decrease of approximately 7%, not 80%.
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