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Dollar fluctuates amid tight monetary authority measures
Economic 2024/07/16
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, days before the implementation of the Central Bank’s decision to sell dollars exclusively to travelers at airports, the dollar exchange rates witnessed clear fluctuations in the parallel markets, as they exceeded the barrier of 150 thousand dinars for every 100 dollars, a number that specialists see as possible (stability or decline) in the coming periods as a result of the Central Bank continuing to meet the requirements of foreign trade, which could lead to a decline in the effects of the parallel market, stressing the need to double efforts to make the new experiment of granting travelers dollars a success for fear of the continued rise of the green currency.
The Central Bank's decision to grant the green currency exclusively to airport travelers has come into effect, amid anticipation of the continued fluctuation of the exchange rate in the parallel market, which observers fear will affect the purchasing value of prices, while the Prime Minister's Advisor for Financial Affairs, Dr. Mazhar Mohammed Saleh, sees the opposite, as he explains that through "the strength of the official central exchange market, the exchange rate of the dollar to the dinar in the parallel market does not constitute any relative importance in affecting the stability of the general price level, which has become stable in its components and trends due to the influence of the prevailing official exchange rate factor."
Amidst this, economic experts believe that among the tools for controlling exchange rates are the recent measures represented by introducing the Customs Data Automation Program (ASYCUDA) system, stressing that this important government measure is an essential part of limiting the rise in the dollar price in the parallel market.
Financial Affairs Advisor, Dr. Mazhar Muhammad Salih, said yesterday, Sunday, in a statement to the Iraqi News Agency (INA): "There is an international factor that imposes controls on the so-called banking compliance in financing the demand for the dollar from our country's international bank accounts in foreign currency, and there is also an internal factor that benefits from the actions and pressure of the external factor in order to obtain temporary or emergency profit gains, especially in cash dollar transactions."
He explained that "the dominance of the fixed exchange rate system in Iraq, based on an international reserve base, is the highest in the history of Iraq and its monetary policy, as foreign currency covers more than 100 percent of the total currency currently issued."
He continued: "Through the strength of the official central exchange market, the exchange rate of the dollar to the dinar in the parallel market in our country does not constitute any relative importance in influencing the stability of the general price level, which has become stable in its components and trends as a result of the influence of the prevailing and dominant official exchange rate factor currently in financing foreign trade (imports), amounting to 1320 dinars per dollar, which is responsible for financing 90 percent of Iraq's foreign trade."
He stressed that "after the decline of the dollarization phenomenon in domestic transactions, especially in contracts, obligations and payments within the country since last year and its legal prohibition, the parallel exchange market has become such that its general effects only form a narrow economic scope of prohibited transactions, practiced by informal markets and at a rate of 10 percent of the total supply and demand transactions for the currency."
He pointed out that "the stability of the dinar to dollar exchange rate that the country is witnessing even in secondary markets is a real and solid stability, and is derived from the strength of the impact of the price and quantitative factors of the monetary and financial policies and their integration in imposing overall price stability in the country, and containing the inflationary expectations that were caused by the parallel exchange market forces during the past years."
It is noteworthy that the Central Bank's sales of hard currency last week amounted to more than one billion dollars through the currency auction that was held over four days, at a daily rate of 272 million and 80 million and 368 dollars, while sales of foreign remittances recorded 991 million and 141 thousand and 473 dollars, which indicates, according to specialists, the possibility of achieving clear relative stability in the various prices of goods and materials, and their not being affected by the parallel exchange rate.
The new mechanism for granting the "dollar", according to the Central Bank, aims to provide foreign currency to the real traveler and pass sound transactions, in addition to facilitating travelers' access to the dollar faster.
According to the "Monetary Authority", the mechanism includes the traveler going to authorized exchange companies spread across all cities to deliver the amount in dinars equivalent to the citizen's share of the dollar according to the official exchange rate of the Central Bank of Iraq. The company will enter the data of the traveling citizen and upload his name on the electronic platform of the Central Bank of Iraq and deliver him a receipt confirming his deposit of the dinar, to receive the cash dollar inside the airport exclusively.
In turn, the economic expert Dr. Nabil Al-Marsoumi, during his interview with "Al-Sabah", sees the existence of several closely related factors that contribute to the rise in the exchange rate, some of which are real and others are psychological, as the real factors are represented by stopping bank transfers in the Chinese yuan due to suspicions of corruption on the subject, in addition to stopping the injection of cash dollars into the parallel market and the new procedures of the Central Bank that limit sales to air ports and
airports.
The expert Al-Marsoumi attributed the reasons for the fluctuations to the launch of the general budget for the year 2024 and the approval of the budget schedules, as this leads to an increase in public spending in its operational and investment aspects, which naturally leads to an increase in consumer demand and an increase in investment demand, and thus an increase in imports and an increase in pressure on the dollar.
Regarding psychological factors, the spokesman indicated that "the fears among citizens went towards the possibility of the dollar rising in the near future, and therefore there is a great rush to buy it from the parallel market, which caused its exchange rate to rise by 3 to 4 percent, expecting that "the market will calm down soon as a result of several factors, most notably the negotiations that the governor of the Central Bank may conduct in Washington regarding bank transfers."
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