Can Washington “limit” Tehran’s economic expansion in Iraq? Expert answers - Urgent
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Baghdad Today - Baghdad
Professor of International Economics, Nawar Al-Saadi, commented today, Friday (August 23, 2024), on the possibility of the United States of America succeeding in limiting Iran's economic expansion in Iraq.
Al-Saadi told Baghdad Today that “Iran has great economic and political influence in Iraq, and this influence has been strengthened over decades of complex bilateral relations between the two countries. Iran considers Iraq an essential part of its strategy of influence in the Middle East, whether through direct investments or through the export of gas and electricity. However, we must take into account that the United States has powerful pressure tools, including economic sanctions imposed on Iran.”
“These sanctions have already complicated Iran’s ability to implement major projects and expand its economic influence in Iraq. On the other hand, the United States’ ability to completely reduce this influence may face significant challenges. Iraq relies heavily on Iranian gas to operate its power plants, making it difficult for the Iraqi government to take steps that could cut off these supplies without a reliable alternative,” he explained.
“The US success in economically strangling Iran in Iraq by withdrawing investment projects in the energy sector, in this regard, we must take into account that withdrawing investments from energy projects controlled by Iran in Iraq may have a limited impact. Many of these projects depend heavily on Iranian infrastructure, which means that withdrawing them or trying to replace them with other projects requires huge time and resources. Iraq suffers from a major energy shortage, and any move to withdraw Iranian investments may lead to an increase in this shortage, which may increase political and economic tensions within Iraq,” he added.
Al-Saadi stressed that “therefore, I believe, based on my reading of the scene, that Iraq may prefer to remain in balanced relations with both parties (Iran and the United States) to ensure stable energy supplies and achieve its economic goals. Therefore, canceling or withdrawing projects completely may face resistance not only from Iran but also from parties within Iraq.”
He explained that "Iran will not stand idly by if the United States tries to limit its influence in Iraq. Iran has multiple means to respond, including deepening its relations with Iraqi political parties and maintaining military and political influence in the country. Iran may also resort to using its economic and political tools to pressure the Iraqi government to resist any attempt to reduce Iranian influence."
The professor of international economics concluded by saying: “I believe that the United States will face major challenges in its attempt to limit Iranian influence in Iraq, and the success of these attempts depends largely on the American ability to provide reliable alternatives to Iraq in the areas of energy and investment, in addition to cooperating with Iraqi parties that may be hesitant to confront Iran directly. On the other hand, Iran will strive with all its might to preserve its interests in Iraq and will not hesitate to use all means at its disposal to ensure the continuation of its economic and political influence.”
Security expert Mukhallad Hazem confirmed on Thursday (August 22, 2024) that the truce that resulted from the government’s agreement with the factions to stop targeting American military headquarters and bases has ended.
Hazem said in an interview with Baghdad Today, "The truce has broken down, and if there is an escalation from the American side, the reaction from the factions will continue against the bases and military headquarters of the American forces."
He added, "No one knows what moves the American forces will make, and the targeting may not be timed, as happened in the bombing of Jurf al-Sakhar, but in general, the truce that was previously sponsored by the Iraqi government has ended, and the factions are now moving at any time and targeting any area where American interests are present."
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