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What are the repercussions of Donald Trump's victory in the upcoming elections on the global economy and the Iraqi economy in particular?
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[rtl]Evan Shaker Al-Dobardani / Researcher in Iraqi and international economic affairs[/rtl]
[rtl]Although initial polls indicate that Democratic Party candidate "Kamala Harris" is superior to Trump, if Republican Party candidate "Donald Trump" is able to win these elections, he will be much stronger in the second term than in the first term, because he will enjoy great support from politically and economically influential figures from within the United States of America.[/rtl]
[rtl]Among the most prominent of them are Elon Musk, founder of Tesla and SpaceX, and Jeff Bezos, founder of Amazon, who also enjoys great support from within the Republican Party. Also, influential people in the United States of America have a share in supporting Donald Trump, and in his election campaign, he is strongly supported by about 26 billionaires, whose total wealth amounts to approximately $143 billion, and they have made donations of about $162 million to his election campaign. All of this will give Trump greater power in managing the White House if he wins the elections next November.[/rtl]
[rtl]Its repercussions on oil and international trade:[/rtl]
[rtl]The global economy is currently witnessing a slowdown, led by the United States of America, China and the European Union, and for this reason we are currently witnessing oil prices tending towards a downward trend, and currently oil has broken the levels of $ 70 per barrel, despite the presence of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and military tensions in the Red Sea and recently in Libya.[/rtl]
[rtl]If Trump wins the election, he will have a significant impact on the oil sector because his oil policy has been known for a long time, which will put pressure on oil prices, because his policy is against oil-producing countries. Also, in return, Trump will support American oil companies, because Trump supports fossil fuels, meaning he will support drilling for oil and gas in the coming period, meaning an increase in energy production, meaning it will have a negative impact on oil-exporting countries.[/rtl]
[rtl]While Trump withdrew in 2017 from the Paris Climate Change Agreement, which entered into force in 2020, under Joe Biden, the United States quickly returned to this agreement in early 202.[/rtl]
[rtl]Trump has pledged to increase customs duties by 60% on Chinese goods, which will negatively affect Chinese exports. He also pledged to impose customs duties on all imports at a rate of 10%, with the European Union being one of the most prominent targets. Recently, Trump threatened to impose 100% customs duties on countries that abandon the dollar in their trade transactions. In return, China and the European Union vow to respond to these measures. If this trade war breaks out by imposing customs duties, its cost will be high on the global economy, and it will exacerbate the inflation crisis, and will lead to disruption and a slowdown in the global economy. Its repercussions will be negative on the industrial sector in the first place, leading to weak demand for oil, meaning that oil prices will be negatively affected, not to mention the raging trade war between China and the European Union through the imposition of customs duties.[/rtl]
[rtl]Its repercussions on the Russia-Ukraine crisis:[/rtl]
[rtl]Trump was a supporter of Russia in his first term, and Trump mentioned more than once that he was able to end this crisis, due to the close friendship between Trump and Putin, until he ends this conflict in Ukraine through negotiations between the United States of America and Russia, and this could happen at the expense of the European Union and Iran, and this is a negative factor on oil prices if the United States of America lifts sanctions on Russia.[/rtl]
[rtl]In return, Trump will seek to further strangle the Iranian economy by reducing Iran's oil exports, which are close to 2.5 million barrels per day, to about 500[/rtl]
[rtl]Its implications for cryptocurrencies:[/rtl]
[rtl]Its repercussions on cryptocurrencies will be positive, because Trump recently changed his position towards cryptocurrencies that he was previously against. Now Trump greatly supports cryptocurrencies, most notably Bitcoin, and criticized the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on Wall Street. He also recently established a platform for cryptocurrencies, and Trump intends to make the United States the capital of cryptocurrencies. This explains to us that cryptocurrencies will see the light of day during Trump’s era, if the US economy does not enter the “hard landing” phase. [/rtl]
[rtl]Its repercussions on US stocks:[/rtl]
[rtl]The first part: Trump will support major American companies by cutting taxes, and he will also pressure the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates at a faster pace. With the decline in oil prices, its repercussions will be positive for the American economy, by reducing costs, especially in the industrial sector, which will lead to lower inflation levels. This in itself is positive news for Wall Street if the American economy avoids the “hard landing” stage.[/rtl]
[rtl]But in the second part, he will increase customs duties, meaning we will witness inflationary pressures, which will lead to a slowdown in the American economy, and therefore its repercussions will be negative for American corporate stocks due to the trade war that Donald Trump will lead, the consequences of which will be dire.[/rtl]
[rtl]Its implications for the monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve:[/rtl]
[rtl]Everyone knows that Trump has a bad relationship with the US Federal Reserve, although he stated that he will not fire Jerome Powell until the end of his term, but this does not mean that there will not be disputes with the US Federal Reserve. Among the ideas that Trump has put forward is forcing the US Federal Reserve to consult with him when making decisions regarding interest rates, and for him to have a voice when the US Federal Reserve makes its decisions regarding interest rates.[/rtl]
[rtl]It is true that we will not see a difference between monetary and fiscal policy during the Trump era as it is now during the Joe Biden government due to the large government spending, but the paradox in Trump's second term will be that monetary and fiscal policy will be accommodative, but the dilemma will be in seeing the American economy from two different angles by the government and the Federal Reserve, and this will create a difference, meaning there will be a conflict and a problem for the American economy, because Trump wants to reduce taxes on companies while increasing customs duties, which will generate significant inflationary pressures, meaning it will bleed the Federal Reserve's achievements that it fought against inflation during these two years.[/rtl]
[rtl]In contrast, the Federal Reserve has reached the final stages of its tightening monetary policy, after inflation fell close to the target levels, and this was at the expense of the slowdown in the American economy. Therefore, the Federal Reserve will begin in September by reducing interest rates in order to avoid the American economy entering the "hard landing" phase.[/rtl]
[rtl]If we do not see the US economy recover, then the repercussions will be serious for the US economy, and we may see "Stagflation" under Trump.[/rtl]
[rtl]Its repercussions on the Iraqi economy:[/rtl]
[rtl]Its repercussions on the Iraqi level will be negative on the economy for two reasons: The first reason is Trump’s policy against oil-producing countries, as he will seek to reduce oil prices, and thus will negatively affect the Iraqi economy because it depends on the oil sector by about 90%, and thus will lead to the depletion of the Iraqi Central Bank’s foreign currency reserves.[/rtl]
[rtl]The second reason is the dollar shortage crisis in Iraq that we are currently experiencing. This crisis could worsen, leading to the depletion of the value of the Iraqi dinar, because if the political and military clash between Iran’s arms in Iraq and the United States of America intensifies, then Iraq could be exposed to specific economic or financial sanctions by the United States of America, and the Iraqi economy would be strangled through the dollar.[/rtl]
[rtl]Conclusion: If Donald Trump wins the elections, we will witness radical changes. The global economy will be facing a new era under Trump, and for this reason the vast majority of countries do not want him to win, with the exception of Russia.[/rtl]
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Added 2024/09/11 - 2:24 PM
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[rtl]Evan Shaker Al-Dobardani / Researcher in Iraqi and international economic affairs[/rtl]
[rtl]Although initial polls indicate that Democratic Party candidate "Kamala Harris" is superior to Trump, if Republican Party candidate "Donald Trump" is able to win these elections, he will be much stronger in the second term than in the first term, because he will enjoy great support from politically and economically influential figures from within the United States of America.[/rtl]
[rtl]Among the most prominent of them are Elon Musk, founder of Tesla and SpaceX, and Jeff Bezos, founder of Amazon, who also enjoys great support from within the Republican Party. Also, influential people in the United States of America have a share in supporting Donald Trump, and in his election campaign, he is strongly supported by about 26 billionaires, whose total wealth amounts to approximately $143 billion, and they have made donations of about $162 million to his election campaign. All of this will give Trump greater power in managing the White House if he wins the elections next November.[/rtl]
[rtl]Its repercussions on oil and international trade:[/rtl]
[rtl]The global economy is currently witnessing a slowdown, led by the United States of America, China and the European Union, and for this reason we are currently witnessing oil prices tending towards a downward trend, and currently oil has broken the levels of $ 70 per barrel, despite the presence of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and military tensions in the Red Sea and recently in Libya.[/rtl]
[rtl]If Trump wins the election, he will have a significant impact on the oil sector because his oil policy has been known for a long time, which will put pressure on oil prices, because his policy is against oil-producing countries. Also, in return, Trump will support American oil companies, because Trump supports fossil fuels, meaning he will support drilling for oil and gas in the coming period, meaning an increase in energy production, meaning it will have a negative impact on oil-exporting countries.[/rtl]
[rtl]While Trump withdrew in 2017 from the Paris Climate Change Agreement, which entered into force in 2020, under Joe Biden, the United States quickly returned to this agreement in early 202.[/rtl]
[rtl]Trump has pledged to increase customs duties by 60% on Chinese goods, which will negatively affect Chinese exports. He also pledged to impose customs duties on all imports at a rate of 10%, with the European Union being one of the most prominent targets. Recently, Trump threatened to impose 100% customs duties on countries that abandon the dollar in their trade transactions. In return, China and the European Union vow to respond to these measures. If this trade war breaks out by imposing customs duties, its cost will be high on the global economy, and it will exacerbate the inflation crisis, and will lead to disruption and a slowdown in the global economy. Its repercussions will be negative on the industrial sector in the first place, leading to weak demand for oil, meaning that oil prices will be negatively affected, not to mention the raging trade war between China and the European Union through the imposition of customs duties.[/rtl]
[rtl]Its repercussions on the Russia-Ukraine crisis:[/rtl]
[rtl]Trump was a supporter of Russia in his first term, and Trump mentioned more than once that he was able to end this crisis, due to the close friendship between Trump and Putin, until he ends this conflict in Ukraine through negotiations between the United States of America and Russia, and this could happen at the expense of the European Union and Iran, and this is a negative factor on oil prices if the United States of America lifts sanctions on Russia.[/rtl]
[rtl]In return, Trump will seek to further strangle the Iranian economy by reducing Iran's oil exports, which are close to 2.5 million barrels per day, to about 500[/rtl]
[rtl]Its implications for cryptocurrencies:[/rtl]
[rtl]Its repercussions on cryptocurrencies will be positive, because Trump recently changed his position towards cryptocurrencies that he was previously against. Now Trump greatly supports cryptocurrencies, most notably Bitcoin, and criticized the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on Wall Street. He also recently established a platform for cryptocurrencies, and Trump intends to make the United States the capital of cryptocurrencies. This explains to us that cryptocurrencies will see the light of day during Trump’s era, if the US economy does not enter the “hard landing” phase. [/rtl]
[rtl]Its repercussions on US stocks:[/rtl]
[rtl]The first part: Trump will support major American companies by cutting taxes, and he will also pressure the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates at a faster pace. With the decline in oil prices, its repercussions will be positive for the American economy, by reducing costs, especially in the industrial sector, which will lead to lower inflation levels. This in itself is positive news for Wall Street if the American economy avoids the “hard landing” stage.[/rtl]
[rtl]But in the second part, he will increase customs duties, meaning we will witness inflationary pressures, which will lead to a slowdown in the American economy, and therefore its repercussions will be negative for American corporate stocks due to the trade war that Donald Trump will lead, the consequences of which will be dire.[/rtl]
[rtl]Its implications for the monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve:[/rtl]
[rtl]Everyone knows that Trump has a bad relationship with the US Federal Reserve, although he stated that he will not fire Jerome Powell until the end of his term, but this does not mean that there will not be disputes with the US Federal Reserve. Among the ideas that Trump has put forward is forcing the US Federal Reserve to consult with him when making decisions regarding interest rates, and for him to have a voice when the US Federal Reserve makes its decisions regarding interest rates.[/rtl]
[rtl]It is true that we will not see a difference between monetary and fiscal policy during the Trump era as it is now during the Joe Biden government due to the large government spending, but the paradox in Trump's second term will be that monetary and fiscal policy will be accommodative, but the dilemma will be in seeing the American economy from two different angles by the government and the Federal Reserve, and this will create a difference, meaning there will be a conflict and a problem for the American economy, because Trump wants to reduce taxes on companies while increasing customs duties, which will generate significant inflationary pressures, meaning it will bleed the Federal Reserve's achievements that it fought against inflation during these two years.[/rtl]
[rtl]In contrast, the Federal Reserve has reached the final stages of its tightening monetary policy, after inflation fell close to the target levels, and this was at the expense of the slowdown in the American economy. Therefore, the Federal Reserve will begin in September by reducing interest rates in order to avoid the American economy entering the "hard landing" phase.[/rtl]
[rtl]If we do not see the US economy recover, then the repercussions will be serious for the US economy, and we may see "Stagflation" under Trump.[/rtl]
[rtl]Its repercussions on the Iraqi economy:[/rtl]
[rtl]Its repercussions on the Iraqi level will be negative on the economy for two reasons: The first reason is Trump’s policy against oil-producing countries, as he will seek to reduce oil prices, and thus will negatively affect the Iraqi economy because it depends on the oil sector by about 90%, and thus will lead to the depletion of the Iraqi Central Bank’s foreign currency reserves.[/rtl]
[rtl]The second reason is the dollar shortage crisis in Iraq that we are currently experiencing. This crisis could worsen, leading to the depletion of the value of the Iraqi dinar, because if the political and military clash between Iran’s arms in Iraq and the United States of America intensifies, then Iraq could be exposed to specific economic or financial sanctions by the United States of America, and the Iraqi economy would be strangled through the dollar.[/rtl]
[rtl]Conclusion: If Donald Trump wins the elections, we will witness radical changes. The global economy will be facing a new era under Trump, and for this reason the vast majority of countries do not want him to win, with the exception of Russia.[/rtl]
12 views
Added 2024/09/11 - 2:24 PM
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