Home
What are the repercussions of Donald Trump's victory in the upcoming elections on the global economy and the Iraqi economy in particular?
[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.] [You must be registered and logged in to see this link.] [You must be registered and logged in to see this link.] [You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]
[rtl]Evan Shaker Al-Dobardani / Researcher in Iraqi and international economic affairs[/rtl]
[rtl]Although initial polls indicate that Democratic Party candidate "Kamala Harris" is superior to Trump, if Republican Party candidate "Donald Trump" is able to win these elections, he will be much stronger in the second term than in the first term, because he will enjoy great support from politically and economically influential figures from within the United States of America.[/rtl]
[rtl]Among the most prominent of them are Elon Musk, founder of Tesla and SpaceX, and Jeff Bezos, founder of Amazon, who also enjoys great support from within the Republican Party. Also, influential people in the United States of America have a share in supporting Donald Trump, and in his election campaign, he is strongly supported by about 26 billionaires, whose total wealth amounts to approximately $143 billion, and they have made donations of about $162 million to his election campaign. All of this will give Trump greater power in managing the White House if he wins the elections next November.[/rtl]
[rtl]Its repercussions on oil and international trade:[/rtl]
[rtl]The global economy is currently witnessing a slowdown, led by the United States of America, China and the European Union, and for this reason we are currently witnessing oil prices tending towards a downward trend, and currently oil has broken the levels of $ 70 per barrel, despite the presence of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and military tensions in the Red Sea and recently in Libya.[/rtl]
[rtl]If Trump wins the election, he will have a significant impact on the oil sector because his oil policy has been known for a long time, which will put pressure on oil prices, because his policy is against oil-producing countries. Also, in return, Trump will support American oil companies, because Trump supports fossil fuels, meaning he will support drilling for oil and gas in the coming period, meaning an increase in energy production, meaning it will have a negative impact on oil-exporting countries.[/rtl]
[rtl]While Trump withdrew in 2017 from the Paris Climate Change Agreement, which entered into force in 2020, under Joe Biden, the United States quickly returned to this agreement in early 202.[/rtl]
[rtl]Trump has pledged to increase customs duties by 60% on Chinese goods, which will negatively affect Chinese exports. He also pledged to impose customs duties on all imports at a rate of 10%, with the European Union being one of the most prominent targets. Recently, Trump threatened to impose 100% customs duties on countries that abandon the dollar in their trade transactions. In return, China and the European Union vow to respond to these measures. If this trade war breaks out by imposing customs duties, its cost will be high on the global economy, and it will exacerbate the inflation crisis, and will lead to disruption and a slowdown in the global economy. Its repercussions will be negative on the industrial sector in the first place, leading to weak demand for oil, meaning that oil prices will be negatively affected, not to mention the raging trade war between China and the European Union through the imposition of customs duties.[/rtl]
[rtl]Its repercussions on the Russia-Ukraine crisis:[/rtl]
[rtl]Trump was a supporter of Russia in his first term, and Trump mentioned more than once that he was able to end this crisis, due to the close friendship between Trump and Putin, until he ends this conflict in Ukraine through negotiations between the United States of America and Russia, and this could happen at the expense of the European Union and Iran, and this is a negative factor on oil prices if the United States of America lifts sanctions on Russia.[/rtl]
[rtl]In return, Trump will seek to further strangle the Iranian economy by reducing Iran's oil exports, which are close to 2.5 million barrels per day, to about 500[/rtl]
[rtl]Its implications for cryptocurrencies:[/rtl]
[rtl]Its repercussions on cryptocurrencies will be positive, because Trump recently changed his position towards cryptocurrencies that he was previously against. Now Trump greatly supports cryptocurrencies, most notably Bitcoin, and criticized the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on Wall Street. He also recently established a platform for cryptocurrencies, and Trump intends to make the United States the capital of cryptocurrencies. This explains to us that cryptocurrencies will see the light of day during Trump’s era, if the US economy does not enter the “hard landing” phase. [/rtl]
[rtl]Its repercussions on US stocks:[/rtl]
[rtl]The first part: Trump will support major American companies by cutting taxes, and he will also pressure the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates at a faster pace. With the decline in oil prices, its repercussions will be positive for the American economy, by reducing costs, especially in the industrial sector, which will lead to lower inflation levels. This in itself is positive news for Wall Street if the American economy avoids the “hard landing” stage.[/rtl]
[rtl]But in the second part, he will increase customs duties, meaning we will witness inflationary pressures, which will lead to a slowdown in the American economy, and therefore its repercussions will be negative for American corporate stocks due to the trade war that Donald Trump will lead, the consequences of which will be dire.[/rtl]
[rtl]Its implications for the monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve:[/rtl]
[rtl]Everyone knows that Trump has a bad relationship with the US Federal Reserve, although he stated that he will not fire Jerome Powell until the end of his term, but this does not mean that there will not be disputes with the US Federal Reserve. Among the ideas that Trump has put forward is forcing the US Federal Reserve to consult with him when making decisions regarding interest rates, and for him to have a voice when the US Federal Reserve makes its decisions regarding interest rates.[/rtl]
[rtl]It is true that we will not see a difference between monetary and fiscal policy during the Trump era as it is now during the Joe Biden government due to the large government spending, but the paradox in Trump's second term will be that monetary and fiscal policy will be accommodative, but the dilemma will be in seeing the American economy from two different angles by the government and the Federal Reserve, and this will create a difference, meaning there will be a conflict and a problem for the American economy, because Trump wants to reduce taxes on companies while increasing customs duties, which will generate significant inflationary pressures, meaning it will bleed the Federal Reserve's achievements that it fought against inflation during these two years.[/rtl]
[rtl]In contrast, the Federal Reserve has reached the final stages of its tightening monetary policy, after inflation fell close to the target levels, and this was at the expense of the slowdown in the American economy. Therefore, the Federal Reserve will begin in September by reducing interest rates in order to avoid the American economy entering the "hard landing" phase.[/rtl]
[rtl]If we do not see the US economy recover, then the repercussions will be serious for the US economy, and we may see "Stagflation" under Trump.[/rtl]
[rtl]Its repercussions on the Iraqi economy:[/rtl]
[rtl]Its repercussions on the Iraqi level will be negative on the economy for two reasons: The first reason is Trump’s policy against oil-producing countries, as he will seek to reduce oil prices, and thus will negatively affect the Iraqi economy because it depends on the oil sector by about 90%, and thus will lead to the depletion of the Iraqi Central Bank’s foreign currency reserves.[/rtl]
[rtl]The second reason is the dollar shortage crisis in Iraq that we are currently experiencing. This crisis could worsen, leading to the depletion of the value of the Iraqi dinar, because if the political and military clash between Iran’s arms in Iraq and the United States of America intensifies, then Iraq could be exposed to specific economic or financial sanctions by the United States of America, and the Iraqi economy would be strangled through the dollar.[/rtl]
[rtl]Conclusion: If Donald Trump wins the elections, we will witness radical changes. The global economy will be facing a new era under Trump, and for this reason the vast majority of countries do not want him to win, with the exception of Russia.[/rtl]
12 views
Added 2024/09/11 - 2:24 PM
[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]
[You must be registered and logged in to see this image.]
[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.] [You must be registered and logged in to see this link.] [You must be registered and logged in to see this link.] [You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]
[rtl]Evan Shaker Al-Dobardani / Researcher in Iraqi and international economic affairs[/rtl]
[rtl]Although initial polls indicate that Democratic Party candidate "Kamala Harris" is superior to Trump, if Republican Party candidate "Donald Trump" is able to win these elections, he will be much stronger in the second term than in the first term, because he will enjoy great support from politically and economically influential figures from within the United States of America.[/rtl]
[rtl]Among the most prominent of them are Elon Musk, founder of Tesla and SpaceX, and Jeff Bezos, founder of Amazon, who also enjoys great support from within the Republican Party. Also, influential people in the United States of America have a share in supporting Donald Trump, and in his election campaign, he is strongly supported by about 26 billionaires, whose total wealth amounts to approximately $143 billion, and they have made donations of about $162 million to his election campaign. All of this will give Trump greater power in managing the White House if he wins the elections next November.[/rtl]
[rtl]Its repercussions on oil and international trade:[/rtl]
[rtl]The global economy is currently witnessing a slowdown, led by the United States of America, China and the European Union, and for this reason we are currently witnessing oil prices tending towards a downward trend, and currently oil has broken the levels of $ 70 per barrel, despite the presence of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and military tensions in the Red Sea and recently in Libya.[/rtl]
[rtl]If Trump wins the election, he will have a significant impact on the oil sector because his oil policy has been known for a long time, which will put pressure on oil prices, because his policy is against oil-producing countries. Also, in return, Trump will support American oil companies, because Trump supports fossil fuels, meaning he will support drilling for oil and gas in the coming period, meaning an increase in energy production, meaning it will have a negative impact on oil-exporting countries.[/rtl]
[rtl]While Trump withdrew in 2017 from the Paris Climate Change Agreement, which entered into force in 2020, under Joe Biden, the United States quickly returned to this agreement in early 202.[/rtl]
[rtl]Trump has pledged to increase customs duties by 60% on Chinese goods, which will negatively affect Chinese exports. He also pledged to impose customs duties on all imports at a rate of 10%, with the European Union being one of the most prominent targets. Recently, Trump threatened to impose 100% customs duties on countries that abandon the dollar in their trade transactions. In return, China and the European Union vow to respond to these measures. If this trade war breaks out by imposing customs duties, its cost will be high on the global economy, and it will exacerbate the inflation crisis, and will lead to disruption and a slowdown in the global economy. Its repercussions will be negative on the industrial sector in the first place, leading to weak demand for oil, meaning that oil prices will be negatively affected, not to mention the raging trade war between China and the European Union through the imposition of customs duties.[/rtl]
[rtl]Its repercussions on the Russia-Ukraine crisis:[/rtl]
[rtl]Trump was a supporter of Russia in his first term, and Trump mentioned more than once that he was able to end this crisis, due to the close friendship between Trump and Putin, until he ends this conflict in Ukraine through negotiations between the United States of America and Russia, and this could happen at the expense of the European Union and Iran, and this is a negative factor on oil prices if the United States of America lifts sanctions on Russia.[/rtl]
[rtl]In return, Trump will seek to further strangle the Iranian economy by reducing Iran's oil exports, which are close to 2.5 million barrels per day, to about 500[/rtl]
[rtl]Its implications for cryptocurrencies:[/rtl]
[rtl]Its repercussions on cryptocurrencies will be positive, because Trump recently changed his position towards cryptocurrencies that he was previously against. Now Trump greatly supports cryptocurrencies, most notably Bitcoin, and criticized the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on Wall Street. He also recently established a platform for cryptocurrencies, and Trump intends to make the United States the capital of cryptocurrencies. This explains to us that cryptocurrencies will see the light of day during Trump’s era, if the US economy does not enter the “hard landing” phase. [/rtl]
[rtl]Its repercussions on US stocks:[/rtl]
[rtl]The first part: Trump will support major American companies by cutting taxes, and he will also pressure the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates at a faster pace. With the decline in oil prices, its repercussions will be positive for the American economy, by reducing costs, especially in the industrial sector, which will lead to lower inflation levels. This in itself is positive news for Wall Street if the American economy avoids the “hard landing” stage.[/rtl]
[rtl]But in the second part, he will increase customs duties, meaning we will witness inflationary pressures, which will lead to a slowdown in the American economy, and therefore its repercussions will be negative for American corporate stocks due to the trade war that Donald Trump will lead, the consequences of which will be dire.[/rtl]
[rtl]Its implications for the monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve:[/rtl]
[rtl]Everyone knows that Trump has a bad relationship with the US Federal Reserve, although he stated that he will not fire Jerome Powell until the end of his term, but this does not mean that there will not be disputes with the US Federal Reserve. Among the ideas that Trump has put forward is forcing the US Federal Reserve to consult with him when making decisions regarding interest rates, and for him to have a voice when the US Federal Reserve makes its decisions regarding interest rates.[/rtl]
[rtl]It is true that we will not see a difference between monetary and fiscal policy during the Trump era as it is now during the Joe Biden government due to the large government spending, but the paradox in Trump's second term will be that monetary and fiscal policy will be accommodative, but the dilemma will be in seeing the American economy from two different angles by the government and the Federal Reserve, and this will create a difference, meaning there will be a conflict and a problem for the American economy, because Trump wants to reduce taxes on companies while increasing customs duties, which will generate significant inflationary pressures, meaning it will bleed the Federal Reserve's achievements that it fought against inflation during these two years.[/rtl]
[rtl]In contrast, the Federal Reserve has reached the final stages of its tightening monetary policy, after inflation fell close to the target levels, and this was at the expense of the slowdown in the American economy. Therefore, the Federal Reserve will begin in September by reducing interest rates in order to avoid the American economy entering the "hard landing" phase.[/rtl]
[rtl]If we do not see the US economy recover, then the repercussions will be serious for the US economy, and we may see "Stagflation" under Trump.[/rtl]
[rtl]Its repercussions on the Iraqi economy:[/rtl]
[rtl]Its repercussions on the Iraqi level will be negative on the economy for two reasons: The first reason is Trump’s policy against oil-producing countries, as he will seek to reduce oil prices, and thus will negatively affect the Iraqi economy because it depends on the oil sector by about 90%, and thus will lead to the depletion of the Iraqi Central Bank’s foreign currency reserves.[/rtl]
[rtl]The second reason is the dollar shortage crisis in Iraq that we are currently experiencing. This crisis could worsen, leading to the depletion of the value of the Iraqi dinar, because if the political and military clash between Iran’s arms in Iraq and the United States of America intensifies, then Iraq could be exposed to specific economic or financial sanctions by the United States of America, and the Iraqi economy would be strangled through the dollar.[/rtl]
[rtl]Conclusion: If Donald Trump wins the elections, we will witness radical changes. The global economy will be facing a new era under Trump, and for this reason the vast majority of countries do not want him to win, with the exception of Russia.[/rtl]
12 views
Added 2024/09/11 - 2:24 PM
[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]
» utube 9/15/24 MM&C Iraq Dinar Update - #xrpripple #iraqidinar Digital Transformation - Global Even
» utube 9/16/24 MM&C Iraq Dinar Update - #xrpripple #iraqidinar - Electronic International Payments
» Progress reveals new political endorsement for its candidate for parliament speaker
» Al-Sudani: Announcing the end of the international coalition mission soon, and we are committed to O
» Iraq and Austria sign a loan financing agreement to stimulate the agricultural sector
» Pending amnesty and complex negotiations: Justice and politics intertwine in the parliament hall
» Amnesty Law: A New Ticket for Corruptors or a Correction of What Politics Has Broken?
» Al-Sudani turns the page on the international coalition.. 2024 is not like 2014
» Oil moves towards generalizing electronic payment in all governorates
» Economist: Decongestion projects will not succeed
» Abu Saeeda: The government is "afraid" of Washington's demand to withdraw its forces from Iraq
» What is the truth of the bargain of passing the amnesty in exchange for personal status?
» MP confirms boycott of parliament sessions due to general amnesty law
» Headed by Al-Sudani.. The Council of Ministers holds its regular session
» Rising housing prices.. Collecting parliamentary signatures to question the head of the Investment A
» Al-Fath: Equipping the Peshmerga with artillery is a first step towards the region’s military secess
» Violations and waste of public money.. Voices calling for the need to expose port corruption are ris
» Currency Auction.. The Central Bank of Iraq sells more than $ 249 million in one day
» Parliamentary Finance Committee discusses proposal to establish sovereign fund
» Karbala: Violations and delays in establishing a park worth 2.4 billion dinars revealed
» Iraq falls to fifth place in buying real estate in Türkiye during the month
» Al-Sudani diagnoses the oil problem of Baghdad and Erbil.. What about the Ceyhan pipeline?
» 500,000 salaries registered in the “Hisabi” system in the Kurdistan Region
» Al-Nusairi identifies the challenges facing Iraqi private banks and opportunities for banking reform
» "Our Country's Dream"... Al-Sudani Sends an "Important" Message to Gulf States Regarding the Path to
» 110 thousand barrels is the volume of decrease in Iraqi exports since the beginning of this month
» Economist: Iran's exports to Iraq increased 71-fold in 20 years
» Pezeshkian praises the results of his visit to Iraq
» Al-Sudani: The government seeks to buy services from investors
» Real estate manipulators between the jaws of the "justice pincers"
» Mechanism to resolve tribal conflicts in Maysan
» Decline in Iraqi exports
» Spanish company implements Basra-Shalamcheh railway
» Advisor to the Prime Minister announces to {Sabah} the launch of the {Back to Education} initiative
» Members of the Ministry of Defense in Basra demand the implementation of the allocation of land plot
» The Social Protection Authority calls on its beneficiaries to expedite the issuance of the unified c
» Trade Bank of Iraq announces mechanism for obtaining US dollars for travel purposes abroad
» House of Representatives votes on agricultural land rental bill
» Minister of Trade arrives in Baku at the head of an investment delegation
» Iraq participates in the Sixth Arab Water Forum in Abu Dhabi
» Parliamentary request to take legal action against an oil company for this reason
» Iraqi Drilling Company Completes Rehabilitation of Two Oil Wells
» Minister of Finance signs agreement with Austrian Ambassador to finance irrigation systems
» Iraq signs loan financing agreement for agricultural sector revitalization projects with Austrian ba
» Concerns about raising tax fees on citizens.. Parliamentary services enter the line
» Dollar and gold prices in local markets in Baghdad
» To discuss a number of financial files.. A delegation from the Kurdistan Regional Government visits
» Chaos of appointments in state institutions.. Lack of planning threatens the economy and development
» Submit a thousand signatures to amend the “Access to Information Law”
» Transport to Al-Zawraa: Al-Faw Port will be the starting point for the development path towards Euro
» Parliament ends second reading of amending personal status and general amnesty laws and adjourns ses
» The Prime Minister stresses the importance of continuing the work of the Iraq Development Fund accor
» Launching a new electronic reservation system on the unified card this week
» Al-Sudani approves the governance guide for the Iraq Development Fund
» Al-Sudani chairs Iraq Fund management meeting
» Parliament hosts Chief of Staff of the Army and Undersecretary of the Ministry of Planning
» Who is covered by the general amnesty law?
» The President of the Supreme Judicial Council discusses judicial cooperation between the two countri
» Al-Sudani announces the imminent end of the international coalition mission in Iraq: We will deal wi
» This is how the citizen gets the dollar
» Iraqi Drilling Company Completes Rehabilitation of Two Oil Wells in Basra
» Parliament session disputes topple controversial laws, postpone others
» Iraq renews its position rejecting foreign presence: We do not need 86 countries to remain on our la
» Find out the dollar exchange rates in the Iraqi stock exchanges
» Details of the American role in preventing Iraq from obtaining a Russian air defense system
» MP gives details on the repercussions of the theft of the century and the leaked recording of Hanoun
» MP warns of US ambassador's moves
» Government stresses the need to develop the air transport sector in Iraq
» Al-Sudani stresses the importance of continuing the work of the Iraq Development Fund according to t
» The Central Bank announces a 15.7% decline in Iraqi exports in the first quarter of this year
» Parliamentary condition for passing the amnesty law.. Who are those covered by the fight against ter
» Al-Sudani confirms the government's intention to purchase services from investors
» In preparation for Al-Sudani's visit... Formation of a high committee in Diyala - Urgent
» The first customs point after the "yellow" between the region and the federation in Diyala
» Misfortunes never come singly.. 15% tax on Facebook in Iraq
» After being almost free... the increase in government transaction fees angers citizens
» Private Banks Association: The number of electronic payment points in Iraq increased from 7 thousand
» Customs: AI to enhance risk management in imports
» Ministry of Foreign Affairs through development: It will be a safe corridor for the transport of goo
» Government plans to impose 15% tax on social media sites
» Low prices.. Parliamentary demands to open the land distribution file to officials
» Parliamentary Finance: Securing Employee Salaries for the Years 2024-2025
» 85% of foreign workers in Iraq have “no useful skills”.. This is what they earn annually
» Foreign labor!
» 100 new investment opportunities
» Expatriate workers transfer $2 billion abroad annually
» Al Sabah Finance Committee: The government has developed a plan to increase financial resources to s
» Water Supply Project in Nineveh Plain
» November.. Iraq offers 100 investment opportunities
» Tips to avoid electronic theft
» Trends towards establishing digital banks
» Al-Sudani chairs the regular meeting of the Board of Directors of the Iraq Development Fund
» Investment Authority: Egyptian companies wish to partner in implementing the development road
» Cryptocurrencies suffer losses of more than 2%
» Slight decrease in dollar exchange rates in Baghdad, Basra and Erbil
» Minister of Electricity to Nina: We have maintained the system without any outage and we will adopt
» American report monitors Turkish-Iranian competition in Iraq
» “Interrogation” is almost absent from the fifth session of Parliament.. The absence of the “Presiden