The next White House administration...will it confront Baghdad with a "rough" policy?

The next White House administration...will it confront Baghdad with a "rough" policy?
2024-10-23 -

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The chances of Republican candidate and former US President Donald Trump to win the presidential elections, which are only days away, have cast a shadow over the Iraqi reality in light of the tense regional situation. Observers expected the White House to display a “rough and tough” policy towards the Iraqi political class and armed factions, which could negatively affect Iraq in general. Others downplayed these fears, based on the fact that US policy is the same regardless of presidents, expecting that relations will witness a new era of stability with the end of the current regional war.
Washington-based political analyst Nizar Haidar said in an interview with Al-Alam Al-Jadeed, “The Republicans consider Iraq their winning prize, given that they were the ones who changed the political system in 2003, and that they were the ones who controlled everything related to it for more than two decades.”
Americans will head to the polls on November 5 to elect the next president of the United States, with the competition between former Republican President Donald Trump and current Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris intensifying after current President Joe Biden withdrew from running for the elections.
Rough policy!
Haider believes that “Trump is pursuing more extreme policies towards Iraq and the region. He is trying to influence the change in the paths of the Republican Party, not the opposite. With his return to the White House, Iraq will witness harsh and strict American policies, in contrast to what he saw from the current Democratic administration, which has continued to deal with the ruling political class in Baghdad in a soft manner, except in necessary cases in which the administration found no alternative but to deal harshly, which was represented by the bombing operations carried out by armed factions.”
“If the Republicans return to the White House, Iraq will move its relationship with Washington to what we can call a friend-enemy. Trump is dealing with it as a backyard for its eastern neighbor, Iran, and thus Iraq will return as a negotiating card between Washington and Tehran, which is something that greatly harms Iraq, especially since the relationship between Baghdad and Tehran on the one hand and Trump on the other hand goes back to the airport incident in 2020 (referring to the assassination of Qassem Soleimani and Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis). Tehran is still looking for revenge, and Baghdad wants to arrest him through the warrant issued by the Iraqi judiciary in 2021, which was announced at the time by the head of the judiciary, Faiq Zidane.”
Trump had made a bold decision after ordering the assassination of Iranian Quds Force Commander General Qassem Soleimani and Deputy Chairman of the Popular Mobilization Forces Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis on January 3, 2020, in an airstrike near Baghdad airport, which plunged Iraqi-American relations, which had been relatively stable, into a new phase of turmoil, tension and embarrassment, as attacks by Iraqi armed factions against American forces began to escalate across Iraq.
On January 7, 2022, the Supreme Judicial Council announced the issuance of an arrest warrant by the Rusafa Investigation Court in Baghdad for former US President Donald Trump, as part of the investigation into the assassination of the commander of the Popular Mobilization Forces, Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, in an American strike in Baghdad, along with Iranian General Qassem Soleimani.
black and white
Regarding the strategic framework agreement signed between Baghdad and Washington in 2008, which was enacted by the House of Representatives into law, the political analyst residing in Washington believes that “it will be in jeopardy if the Republicans return to the White House, while attempts to activate it will continue to proceed like a turtle if the Democrats remain in the Oval Office.”
Haidar concludes that “Trump sees the Middle East region in only two colors; black and white, and therefore Iraq will face a difficult test to determine one of the two colors,” noting that “the Republicans do not believe in the policy of distancing oneself or holding the stick from the middle that Baghdad always repeats regarding developments in the region, unlike the Democrats who excuse Baghdad and understand its complex position amid the escalating crises in the region.”
With just two weeks to go before the election, polls show Republican candidate Donald Trump leading by 52 percent, over Democratic candidate Kamala Harris, who received only 42 percent, as the campaigns of the two candidates intensify, touring the most influential states such as Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin in the east of the country, while Trump continues his stinging verbal attacks against Harris, branding her as a “failed vice president.”
For his part, Professor of Public Policy at the University of Baghdad, Ihsan Al-Shammari, said in an interview with “Al-Alam Al-Jadeed” that “the United States of America does not rely on people and names. Democrats and Republicans may differ in details, but they put national security and American interests first in their calculations, and these are constants.”
Decisions and penalties
Regarding dealing with the Iraqi and regional situation, Al-Shammari does not find any difference between Trump and his counterparts from the Democratic Party. “You notice that the Democrats, led by Biden or Harris, are disturbed by the activity of the armed factions and are concerned with the security of American bases and the security of Israel, so we do not rule out that they may give the green light to Israel to target Iraq, and this is not far-fetched, although they have shown flexibility in dealing with Iraq on some issues,” he adds.
But Al-Shammari believes that if Trump returns to the presidency in light of the current situation, he will be more severe on Iraq, and of course on the armed factions and Iran, and he may take radical decisions, especially since the factions still oppose the American presence, and this may push the Republican administration to show more severity in the form of decisions or sanctions.”
During his first term in office, Trump had special ideas and visions for dealing with Iraq, as he repeatedly repeated his threats against Iran to direct “major retaliation” against it if it launched attacks on American interests in Iraq and the region, but Tehran did so by bombing the Ain al-Assad base and several attacks after the assassination of Soleimani and al-Muhandis.
Trump also tried to formulate his vision for strategic relations with Iraq according to the principles he set: limiting the Iranian presence in Iraq, strengthening the American military presence and protecting soldiers, and extracting facilities from Iraq for the freedom of movement of American forces, even if their activity overlaps with the American military presence in eastern Syria. When he took office, he also pledged to end the presence of ISIS in Iraq within 100 days, send more soldiers to Iraq, and work to establish a friendly government in Baghdad.
New Era
In addition, the director of the Iraqi Center for Strategic Studies, Ghazi Faisal, believes, during an interview with “Al-Alam Al-Jadeed,” that “American foreign policy and international interests, whether in Iraq or the Middle East, are determined by American institutions. It is a state of institutions, whether its president is Trump or Harris, and therefore there will be no major radical changes.”
Regarding the position of the next US government on the current regional situation, he added: “Certainly, when the elections are over and the new US president appears at the beginning of the new year, the war in the Middle East will be over and the situation will move towards building peace and drawing a new map for political relations. Iraq, as a government, when it takes a neutral and balanced position, will move towards strengthening the relationship on the basis of mutual interests, whether with Harris or Trump, according to the strategic framework agreement.”
As for the new president’s position on the armed factions, he points out that “these factions will be linked to Iran’s positions. If the latter goes after this war to isolation, respect international law and the UN Charter, and not interfere in the sovereign affairs of states, there will certainly be a different Middle East. What is expected is that Iran will not continue to support the factions after Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen received strong blows in this war.”
The recent war on Gaza and Lebanon witnessed a series of assassinations carried out by Israel against the leaders of the “resistance” loyal to Iran, most notably the leader of the Lebanese Hezbollah, Hassan Nasrallah, and Ismail Haniyeh and Yahya Sinwar, the leaders of the Palestinian resistance movement “Hamas.”
Faisal insists that “the next phase will witness important transformations in Iraqi-American relations after the end of this war and the return of peace and security in the Middle East and the Arabian Gulf, and these transformations are based on mutual interests in various economic aspects such as gas production, alternative energy, and environmental issues.”
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