Los Angeles Kings

Expected Goals & Kopitar, Toffoli, Brown, Gaborik
March 27, 2017, 2:47 PM ET [21 Comments]
Sheng Peng
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What is xGF? xGF means Expected Goals For.

Expected Goals For means how many goals an average team or player should score with the quantity and quality of shots created. Therefore, because all shots are not created equal, xGF goes beyond shot quantity (i.e. Corsi), also accounting for shot quality (i.e. location of the shot).

So xGF does address the fact, for example, that a breakaway is often more dangerous than a point shot.

Anyway, it will probably be of no surprise that LA's entire season mirrors its performance against New York on Saturday: All sound, no fury. Once again, the Kings underperformed on their Expected Goals For.

It will also probably be of no surprise that Los Angeles ranks last in the league in All Situations xGF Differential (i.e. the difference between Actual Goals and Expected Goals).

photo xGF Diff_zpsaczuqwov.png

At least the Kings aren't making history. xGF has been tracked since 2007-08, and it's the 2008-09 Rangers with a record-worst -0.76 Differential. But that said, LA's current -0.41 would be among the worst of the last decade (255th out of 270 teams, to be exact).

This xGF underperformance is also one of the most dire of the Darryl Sutter era, though it's not rock-bottom:

photo Kings xGF_zpsppfydvud.png

So why do teams underperform their xGF? It's generally a combination of lacks -- not Eddie -- of shooting talent and luck.

How many times have we heard some variation of "We didn't bear down on our chances" or "We just didn’t get the bounces" from the Kings this year?

Anyway, it's obvious that Los Angeles needs to add some shooting talent up front next season -- but it's a delicate balance. Unless the organization plans a top-down philosophical change, these prospective finishers will probably also need to win their share of battles and play competent two-way hockey. That's not easy to find, especially when you're up against the cap.

So it's really not as simple as adding pure offense to LA.

Might the answer for more goals come from within?

Projecting a handful of currently struggling forwards next season -- Tyler Toffoli should bounce back, Anze Kopitar 50-50, while Dustin Brown and Marian Gaborik probably will not. These forecasts, of course, aren't groundbreaking, but examining each player's recent All Situations, Individual Expected Goals For (ixGF) Differential by season is still interesting.

photo Toffoli_zps11tjqxbc.png

After defying his ixGF early in his career -- again, a testament generally to both luck and shooting talent, and in Toffoli's case, certainly a lot of finishing ability -- the 24-year-old has slumped this season. However, since nothing appears to be wrong with him visually, the youngster is primed for a comeback.

photo Kopitar_zpsqp9qyjxq.png

Going into the second year of an eight-year, $80 million dollar deal, Kopitar faces an offseason of uncomfortable questions. This is the third time in five seasons that his goal scoring has underwhelmed. He's about to turn 30. For the first time in his career, his shooting % will probably fall under 10.0.

On the other hand, he's hit an unusual number of posts this season. And speaking of shooting %, since this is the first time it's been so abysmal, there's a reasonable chance that it's an aberration. His scoring droughts in previous seasons had more to do with not shooting enough, not finishing ability.

Kopitar doesn't have to look further than Jeff Carter for some hope. Last year, Carter had a shooting % under 10.0 for the first time since he was 22 -- this season, the 32-year-old enjoyed a rebound.

photo Brown_zps5lu6jji1.png

Brown's scoring, however, is going the wrong way and not coming back.

To his credit, the former captain's still earning quality scoring chances and is a solid two-way citizen. But from time to time, people imply that Brown's still got it offensively and is somehow being held back by outside forces. That's simply not the case.

The 32-year-old seemed to age overnight, but with his hard-charging style, perhaps that shouldn't have been of any surprise.

photo Gaborik_zpsurv9tqte.png

After a promising World Cup, I was all-in on Gaborik's return to prominence. Despite his advanced age, he was such a special player in his youth and as recently as 2015, that I hoped even a normal, age-related decline would still leave him at least a top-six contributor into his mid-30s.

I was wrong. He shows flashes and still earns a lot of chances, but like Brown, you can't ignore this type of downward trend over 30.

And unlike Brown, the 34-year-old doesn't own other qualities in his game that make him indispensable to a winning line-up. In short, Gaborik's value throughout his career has been scoring -- if he's not providing that, it's probably too late for him to learn new tricks.

So stuck between a Brown and a Gaborik, can LA get out?

With their onerous contracts, let's just say it will be...unexpected.