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Established in 2006 as a Community of Reality

Welcome to the Neno's Place!

Neno's Place Established in 2006 as a Community of Reality


Neno

I can be reached by phone or text 8am-7pm cst 972-768-9772 or, once joining the board I can be reached by a (PM) Private Message.

Established in 2006 as a Community of Reality

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Established in 2006 as a Community of Reality

Many Topics Including The Oldest Dinar Community. Copyright © 2006-2020


    The effectiveness of monetary policy between anti-money laundering measures and the threat of the fi

    Rocky
    Rocky
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    • Post n°1

    The effectiveness of monetary policy between anti-money laundering measures and the threat of the fi Empty The effectiveness of monetary policy between anti-money laundering measures and the threat of the fi

    Post by Rocky Sun 18 Dec 2022, 5:11 am

    The effectiveness of monetary policy between anti-money laundering measures and the threat of the fixed exchange system

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    Dr.. Haitham Hamid Mutlaq Al-Mansour  
    Monetary policy is the main macroeconomic arm through which the overall monetary balance is controlled by the central bank formulating its operational objectives to achieve price stability, through its quantitative and qualitative tools, to pass its control measures on commercial banks by reducing the money supply and reducing inflationary pressures, and continuing to Maintaining the stability of low inflation levels, through the fixed exchange rate system.
    And due to the importance of the fixed exchange rate system that has been followed by the monetary authority in Iraq for many years, the directly related parties must work to protect this system from its low effectiveness, as it constitutes an objective guarantee in the reality of the rentier economy to maintain real income levels when planned and within the level of safety. required by the government.
    And whoever tracks the current economic facts, it is noted at the level of monetary policy in Iraq, and after the response of the supervisory role of the Central Bank to international requirements in managing the exchange rate of the dollar and combating money laundering and financing terrorism, including the ban on the activity of some banks from dealing in dollars, as they are internationally condemned for the suspicious operations they run to smuggle the currency , and money laundering, and then preventing these banks from dealing in dollars has led to a sharp decline in the supply of dollars, after the Central Bank was selling more than 280 billion dollars, it now sells about 75 million dollars, most of these sales go in the form of transfers abroad to finance trade Foreign affairs, while the selling price of the dollar transferred to bank accounts abroad, in addition to the cash sale, reached 1460 dinars per dollar. It was reflected in the high demand for the dollar for import purposes, which made the market exchange rate rise clearly.
    Turning to the fixed exchange rate system, the decrease in the supply of the dollar resulted in an alarming rise in the exchange rates of the dollar, as the exchange rate of one dollar exceeded the limits of 1460 to 1500 dinars, but seriously indicates a decline in decisiveness in monetary policy measures towards inflation rates resulting from the continuous rises since More than two weeks in the local markets (despite the rise in the balance of foreign reserves to the threshold of 90 billion dollars), so that the exchange rate of the US dollar rose to more than 0150 Iraqi dinars, with a price difference of 3 dollars, or approximately 5000 dinars per hundred dollars from the price of The official exchange in which the dollar is sold to commercial banks.
    The real fears could come that the continued rise in demand for the dollar will raise the level of the dollar exchange rate threshold and move it from 1460 to 1500, and thus the level of inflation will move to other stages that may lead to difficulty returning to the 1460 threshold, especially in light of media statements close to a decision Central that the price of 1460 is no longer commensurate with the market.
    There is no doubt that the rise in the exchange rate of the dollar and its fluctuation in the direction of the rise, are reflected realistically and directly on the prices of commodities and basic and luxury materials, and in the midst of the increasing fears of the Iraqi consumer about the continued reflection of the sharpness of the continuous rises in the exchange rate of the dollar on the real value of money, especially for those with limited and middle-income as well For vulnerable groups, which constitutes a real obstacle to the stability of the standard of living, and the significant impact of the aforementioned increases on inflation levels and its negative impact on the performance of the private investment sector is evident through the fluctuation in investor expectations and the prevailing atmosphere of uncertainty arising from the continuous announcement of the central bank about the reduction, and the lack of response to prices The exchange of policy measures in the markets, which raises a real question about the extent of the effectiveness of these measures and the extent to which they touch the reality and the suffering witnessed by the various social segments as a result of the apparent decrease in the value of money.
    Turning to the inflation targeting policy, it is inferred from the above-mentioned effects, the low performance of the inflation targeting policy through the fixed exchange system in a way that does not guarantee financial stability in the Iraqi markets, including the difference in the value of the Iraqi dinar and its decline to new, lower limits, which will threaten the stability of real income and financial and macro balance, which It requires the Central Bank to enter into more effective measures to return to the limits that prevailed in the past year, at least 146-147.
      Therefore, to maintain the effectiveness of monetary policy in its direction of curbing inflation and to achieve its strategic goal of low and stable inflation, two pivotal steps can be identified:
     1- The central bank should take a short-term strategy commensurate with the recent supervisory role and limit its effects on the reality of local exchange rates and the general level of prices, in order to achieve low and stable inflation, by regulating the money supply by following a deflationary policy that seeks to absorb liquidity and spare the country the risks of an increasing rise in the general level. prices by increasing the supply of dollars through the window.
    2- Inventing and implementing new mechanisms that contribute to compensating for the decrease in the Central Bank's dollar sales.

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    Added 12/17/2022 - 10:30 AM
    Updated 12/18/2022 - 12:55 PM
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