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- WEDNESDAY, 01-11-2023, PM 4:09
- KARAR AL-ASSADI
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The events in Gaza after the Israeli ground invasion herald the explosion of the security and political situation in the region, and while an observer warned of the sparks of conflict spreading to all Arab countries, he noted that a gap began to widen between the official positions of the Arab countries and the popular movement in them.
In Iraq, confusion seems to rule the situation, as the official position is witnessing division and loss of compass between the government and the factions that formed it, until its image appeared clearly in the behavior of the Iraqi delegation inside the United Nations during the vote on the draft armistice resolution, and with the leader of the Sadrist movement internally threatening to close the American embassy, he warns He is close to the coordination framework that the escalation of the situation in Gaza will be matched by a direct escalation against the American military bases in Iraq.
Jordanian political analyst Hazem Ayyad says, “The Israeli ground attack represented a new step toward escalation in the region, and it means that Israel and its Western allies have no intention of going toward a ceasefire, which is the only way to reduce the escalation and distance the region from a broader regional confrontation that casts its shadow over the region.” .
Ayyad adds, “This escalation will lead, on the security side, to dynamics that are difficult to control, which may lead to the expansion of the conflict and its spread in regional areas. We have noticed in recent days that there have been missile attacks and explosions that occurred in Egypt, and there was bombing close to Jordanian territory, and this means that the conflict Its sparks are flying in the regional ocean.”
He continues, "The Israeli ground operation is a shift that puts the region in a state of instability and the possibility of the humanitarian and political scene exploding," pointing out that "Jordan's position was clear through the speech of the Jordanian Foreign Minister, who confirmed that the Israeli ground operation threatens security and stability in the region, and this coincides with a UN resolution." In the General Assembly.
Ayyad describes the decision at the United Nations as “a dust in the eyes, and an escape forward for the Arab countries from carrying out their duties related to severing relations with Israel, putting pressure on the United States of America, and stopping all cooperation, trade exchange, and security coordination with it and its partners,” noting. "The decision was also controversial, because it talks about the two-state solution. The Arab and Islamic countries do not recognize Israel until they recognize that there is a solution called the two-state solution."
The Jordanian political analyst says that "the popular movement in the region may develop and take multiple paths, especially since the official Arab discourse has begun to collapse. It is no longer acceptable to adhere to the same positions that were overtaken by events as a result of the Israeli massacres and the result of the ground operation," stressing that "the Arab countries are now required to take positions." This is something that some countries find difficult to resort to, which creates a gap with the street and leads to them taking a confrontational position with the United States or with the Arab street, and these in themselves are other crises that erupt.”
For the twenty-sixth day in a row, Israeli forces continued their air, sea, and artillery bombardment on all areas of the Gaza Strip. The attack was preceded by a complete internet and communications blackout in the Strip, and there were reports of the failure of a ground attack carried out by Israel.
After the intensity of the conflict between the Zionist entity and the Palestinian resistance increased and the war expanded, fear emerged that the Middle East region would be plunged into a broader, long-term war. In Iraq, operations targeting American bases quickly escalated, and this coincided with the leader of the Sadrist movement moving his supporters towards the Iraqi-Jordanian border. The situation also escalated regionally after the entry of Iran and Hezbollah in Lebanon, in addition to the entry of the Houthis in Yemen, into the crisis line.
For his part, the head of the Center for Political Thinking, Ihsan Al-Shammari, explains that “the Iraqi position towards the war in Gaza is witnessing a division in the official position, and this difference emerged between the position of Prime Minister Muhammad Shiaa Al-Sudani, who pushes for dialogue and the continuation of the relationship with the United States of America, versus his allies, the armed factions, who They formed the government and are an essential pillar of it who are now setting out to target the interests of the United States of America and oppose diplomatic solutions towards participating in the war.”
Al-Shammari adds, “The official position is very confused, and it is not possible to determine what it is. Will the Sudanese agree with his allies in the government or will he disagree with them, especially since the confusion in the position became clear through Iraq’s vote within the United Nations regarding a ceasefire in Gaza, and I believe This vote not only reflects the state of division, but also reflects the inability to fully determine the direction of Iraq.”
He continues, "The official Iraqi position cannot be relied upon to a large extent, and what happened at the United Nations is a diplomatic scandal that harmed Iraq's history and its positions on the Palestinian issue."
Regarding the Sadrists’ threat to the American embassy, in conjunction with the escalation in Gaza, the head of the Center for Political Thinking believes that “Al-Sadr’s threat comes within the framework of his positions towards the Palestinian issue as part of a series of positions, and it includes two messages, the first of which is an encouragement to the Sudanese government on the grounds that it is a government of armed factions that oppose the Americans.” Therefore, he gave them popular support by presenting this idea.”
Regarding the second message, Al-Shammari believes that “Al-Sadr’s position is a moment to test the slogans of the government and its supporters from the armed factions. Will they stick with this content or will they lay down their weapons and end the anti-American slogan? Therefore, Al-Sadr’s call appears to be, if there is no actual action by the government regarding the events, it will turn into a scenario.” Al-Sadr takes it to demand the government’s resignation as a result of its many failures.”
Last Friday, the United Nations voted on a draft Arab resolution stipulating an immediate ceasefire in Palestine and the start of a permanent truce, but Iraq abstained from voting on the resolution, according to the voting board published by the United Nations website, which sparked great confusion about the reason for the abstention. Iraq refused to vote in favor of the resolution.
The Iraqi Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced in a quick statement that Iraq has reservations about what was stated in point 13 of the resolution, which is the “two-state solution,” because it means recognition of Israel. After that, the representative of Iraq submitted a request to the United Nations to amend the vote, to be with the resolution, attributing the reason To "a defect in the voting system."
On Friday (October 27, 2023), the leader of the Sadrist movement, Muqtada al-Sadr, called on the federal government and parliament to vote on a decision to close the United States embassy in Iraq “in support” of the Palestinians, and stressed: the need to protect the diplomatic personnel of the embassy, and not to be attacked by “militias.” Insolent", which wants to undermine the security and safety of Iraq, in the event of voting on the resolution, threatening: "If the government and parliament do not respond, we will have another position that we will announce later.”
In this regard, Issam Hussein, a political analyst close to the Sadrist movement, confirms that “the movement’s leader’s threat to close the American embassy is a real threat, but it is a peaceful act that does not amount to carrying weapons. Al-Sadr stressed preserving the safety of the diplomats present in the embassy, and this step is in line with the laws.” The international community that protects diplomacy.
Hussein adds, "The step is a means of pressure on the American side, which continues to support the Zionist entity that brutally dealt with the Palestinian people in Gaza, under the pretext of the presence of Hamas elements, and this issue deserves pressure on the American side and the threat of the possibility of closing its embassy."
Regarding whether Al-Sadr’s threat was a step to embarrass the coordination framework, he points out that “the framework has already been embarrassed for a year regarding its dealings with the Americans, and the embarrassment comes from the coup process from the resistance to heading the government. It is no secret to everyone that the framework changed 180 degrees after it gained power.” ".
Last week, one of the representatives collected signatures to expel the American ambassador from Baghdad, “in protest against Washington’s support for Tel Aviv.” However, observers and legal experts confirmed that it was not possible to expel the American ambassador, since Parliament’s decision is not binding on the government, while they confirmed that these signatures aim to embarrass the framework’s representatives. Coordination and cramming them into a “narrow corner” and nothing more.
On the other hand, the political analyst close to the coordination framework, Kazem Al-Hajj, states that “field developments in the Gaza Strip have direct repercussions on the position of the factions in Iraq, and the axis of resistance in general, and the positions may be represented by military action towards the American bases located on Iraqi territory and outside it, and targeting those bases with marches and missiles, and the other position is Al-Sadr’s position on closing the American embassy, as well as the attempt to have an official government position supportive of the popular and reference position towards the Palestinian issue.”
Al-Hajj adds: “If the matter develops into an actual ground invasion, not a propaganda one, of the Gaza Strip, I believe that the resistance factions will move to another stage by targeting American military interests,” noting that “the positions are complementary and some complement the other, but there is blame on the government as a result.” Its latest statement towards the resistance factions.”
Regarding the presence of confusion in the position of the factions, he points out that “the position of the resistance factions is clear, and if we review the operations against the American bases, we find that there is engineering in the timing and selection of targets, but there are those who exist within the coordination framework that take the form of intellectual resistance, and there are those who believe in actual resistance that targets the American forces.” ".
Iraq witnessed rapid developments following the ongoing war in Gaza, represented by the return of escalation and tension between Baghdad and Washington, as the latter began to withdraw its diplomatic staff after the escalation in targeting of its military bases, in addition to some civil aviation companies changing their air routes over Anbar Governorate for reasons related to the density of American military aviation, While the Prime Minister tried to contain the crisis by issuing statements of condemnation, threatening arrest, and conducting extensive contacts with Washington.
Last week, the Prime Minister made two phone calls with the US Secretaries of State and Defense, in which he renewed the government’s commitment to the strategic framework agreement concluded between Baghdad and Washington, in all fields, and to strengthen their partnership. He also discussed the presence of military advisors and crews of the international coalition to combat terrorism in Iraq, and affirmed Iraq’s commitment to protecting the advisors. Military personnel and diplomatic missions.
It is noteworthy that Al-Nujaba Movement, one of the armed factions in Iraq, issued a statement in which it expressed its “regret” at the Iraqi government’s statement, in which it “describes the military bases that house the occupying American military forces by saying that they are Iraqi (bases) that include the headquarters of the international coalition advisors present in Iraq.” At an official invitation from the government,” according to its statement, also stressing that: Standing in the path of resistance or in the way of removing the occupier by any means constitutes a violation of the law, Sharia, and national values and principles.
In a statement today, Wednesday, the Al-Nujaba Movement announced that the armed factions “decided to liberate Iraq militarily” from the presence of foreign forces.
Akram Al-Kaabi said, “The Iraqi Islamic resistance has decided to liberate Iraq militarily and the matter has been resolved, and what is coming is greater,” stressing, “No stopping, no appeasement, no retreat.”
In addition to Al-Nujaba, the Sayyid Al-Shuhada Movement also issued a statement, through its spokesman Kazem Al-Fartusi, in which he confirmed: We have a decision to target those forces in the event of direct American interference in the internal affairs of Iraq. However, the movement has not yet participated in attacks. Specific to those rules...but we do not condemn strikes if they are carried out by Iraqi factions for precise targets.”
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