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The {non-oil} deficit is troubling the government
Iraq 12/24/2023
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Baghdad: Raghad Dahham
After the warnings issued by the Governor of the Central Bank regarding the increase in the “non-oil” deficit by more than 80 percent and its threat to the financial and economic situation of the country and the need to address it, specialists found that there is a need to address this deficit in order to maintain economic growth in the country.
The economic advisor to the Prime Minister, Mazhar Muhammad Saleh, told Al-Sabah: “The measure adopted by the International Monetary Fund to know the structure of the economy in financial and real terms outside the oil sector is called the standard (major non-oil financial balances).”
He explained, “This criterion is calculated through an equation in which the numerator is the result of subtracting non-oil revenues from total government spending, and the net subtraction is divided by the non-oil GDP, so that we obtain a negative number, which is supposed to decrease as the diversification of the economy increases.”
He added, “Because non-oil revenues are less than total expenditures, the result is negative. The lower the ratio, even if it is negative, this means that (either non-oil revenues have increased, or non-oil GDP has also increased, or both. This depends on The degree of high growth rates in the non-oil sectors of the economy and their diversification.” In turn, the Dean of the “Institute of Local Auditors” and the former head of the Financial Supervision Bureau, Salah Nouri, told “Al-Sabah”: “What is meant by the non-oil deficit is that public revenues generated from sources other than Oil (taxes, fees, the treasury’s share of the profits of public companies, the revenues of the Municipality of Baghdad, etc.) only covers 20 percent of the public expenses approved in the budget law.”
He added, "This warning is realistic to take into consideration in implementing the 2024 budget, meaning that revenues must be diversified and maximized other than revenues from the sale of oil because it is exposed to global changes in prices and the amount of exports."
He pointed out, "The timing of the statement by the Governor of the Central Bank of Iraq came after the end of the International Monetary Fund's meeting with the government team last week in Jordan, and that the Fund's report contains positive indicators about Iraq's monetary policy with regard to controlling dollar transfers."
Nouri added: “One of the risks of declining oil revenues is due to not exporting the amount of oil to the Kurdistan region through the port of Ceyhan for technical reasons,” pointing out that “OPEC’s recent agreement to reduce the quantities of exported oil and reconsider the reduction again in 2024.” It also contributed to a decrease in oil revenues.”
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