An American institute diagnoses internal and external challenges facing the Iraqi “Development Road”

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[size=52]An American institute diagnoses internal and external challenges facing the Iraqi “Development Road” project[/size]

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03-12-2024
The American Carnegie Institute for Research stated that the “Development Road” project to link the Gulf to Turkey would enhance Iraq’s geopolitical position as a trade corridor and secure financial profits, but it faces obstacles, including financing and implementation challenges, in addition to the spread of corruption. , and lack of security stability, while he pointed out that the Kurdistan Region believes that the failure of the project to pass is a plan with political and economic motives behind it aimed at weakening it.[/size]
[size=45]The American report indicated that the Iraqi government did not carry out a sufficient feasibility study to confirm the strategic value of the “development path,” while there does not appear to be a consensus among government institutions about the project’s scope, objectives, and cost.[/size]
[size=45]dominant parties[/size]
[size=45]The report added that there are questions about whether some of the dominant parties in Parliament will allocate money to him, because they do not want to contribute to strengthening Prime Minister Muhammad Shiaa al-Sudani.[/size]
[size=45]The report considered that, given the many challenges facing the project, Iraq will find it difficult to mobilize regional support for the project, in addition to the ability to entice other countries to invest in it or benefit from it themselves.[/size]
[size=45]However, the report considers that the government still has an opportunity to address the positions of skeptics about the project, but this requires institutionalizing project management, developing partnerships with donors and the private sector, and ensuring transparency.[/size]
[size=45]After the report pointed out that the idea of ​​transforming borders into points of connection between countries and continents has flourished in recent years, it said that many of these projects, which are driven by internal calculations and wrapped in populist nationalist discourse, may ultimately lead to enhancing competition and exacerbating conflicts, instead of To promote economic integration.[/size]
[size=45]Rentier economy[/size]
[size=45]While the report described the “Development Road” as a major project that seeks to take advantage of the country’s geographical location and multiple borders, it said that it also represents an attempt to present a new development model that can stabilize the country politically and mitigate the harmful consequences of a rentier economy.[/size]
[size=45]However, he expressed fears that “Iraqi ambitions are inflated,” stressing that what is most important is that Iraq will be forced to find a place for itself amid regional geoeconomic and geopolitical competition, with the introduction of competing trade connectivity projects, including China’s “Belt and Road Initiative.” The economic corridor between India, the Middle East and Europe, and Iran’s ambitions to become a platform for trans-regional trade.[/size]
[size=45]The report pointed out that the “development path” emerged after a period of political and social instability in Iraq, driven by growing popular anger over the shortcomings in the way the country was managed politically and economically.[/size]
[size=45]He added that the Sudanese government adopted the project, and that the political coalition supporting the Prime Minister called his government the “Services Government,” which means that it will primarily be concerned with improving the quality of services, and that the government did not want to be drawn into the politically charged issues that prevented previous governments from progressing in Development of the country.[/size]
[size=45]The report said that Sudanese wants to prioritize the economy over other government goals, but not by presenting a development model that creates a radical shift in redistribution policies, developing educational policies and building capabilities for youth, or participating in more privatization.[/size]
[size=45]He pointed out that Al-Sudani instead wants to present a model of state capitalism in which giant strategic projects are seen as transformative, a model of which there are examples in Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Turkey, and which relies mainly on hasty assessments in addition to doses of economic populism.[/size]
[size=45]He continued, saying that this approach “focuses on gaining the support of political segments through the implementation of giant projects that bring prestige, rather than actually solving economic problems,” adding that it is “an economic project that revolves around a political goal, which is to preserve the status quo by searching for partial solutions to the challenges.” “Economic.”[/size]
[size=45]“Devil’s Details”[/size]
[size=45]Although the report considered that the project seemed attractive in theory, “the devil lies in the details,” adding that the development path is not a new concept, and that the idea has been circulating for many years.[/size]
[size=45]He continued that Iraqi officials say that the project will enhance trade between Asia and Europe, reducing the time period for transporting goods between the Chinese port of Shanghai and the Dutch port of Rotterdam from 3 to 15 days, which will make Iraq an important center for international trade and a major corridor for goods, which will stimulate its economy, create job opportunities, and produce sources of income. New to the country, as Iraqi officials estimate revenues at about four billion dollars annually, while the total cost of the project is estimated at about 17 billion dollars.[/size]
[size=45]However, the report pointed out the fragility of the situation of Iraq’s southern and northern borders, specifically in Al-Faw in the south, and with Turkey in the north, especially after ISIS took control of Nineveh Governorate, carrying out ethnic and sectarian cleansing operations, which destabilized the entire region. Then the region became an arena for new wars, primarily between the army. Turkey and the Kurdistan Workers' Party.[/size]
[size=45]The report added that if “the path of development succeeds in reaching the borders through Iraqi-Turkish cooperation, this may lead to unleashing a new phase of economic dynamism that contributes to calming such conflicts and pushes countries to work in a different approach,” adding that “it will be “One example of how controversial border areas can be transformed through development.”[/size]
[size=45]Potential obstacles[/size]
[size=45]But the report considered that while Iraq's leaders view the path of development as a magic cure for the country's many problems, these same problems are what may contribute to obstructing or preventing the implementation of the project, including inefficiency and corruption within government bodies, which hinders the implementation of mega projects. It wastes the large amounts of money needed to finance it, in addition to the lack of security and political instability, which may not only hinder the completion of the project, but may also prevent it from attracting customers and investors.[/size]
[size=45]The report said that there is great geoeconomic and geopolitical competition for regional trade connectivity projects, as some countries oppose the development path or remain unsupportive of it.[/size]
[size=45]In addition, the report says that critics of the project believe that it may be just a new cover for political corruption, and that it will be exploited to pass illegal profits to the ruling political parties and businessmen linked to the parties.[/size]
[size=45]The report also indicated that some parties are reluctant to allocate a large budget to implement the project, partly due to fear that this would strengthen Sudanese position with respect to other political actors.[/size]
[size=45]The report pointed out that “there is also the problem of insecurity and instability in Iraq, which will determine not only who will choose to use the development path but also who may invest in the project.”[/size]
[size=45]Kurdistan Region[/size]
[size=45]The report said that the Kurdistan Regional Government objects to the project because the initial plan for the main road excluded the region that shares a border with Turkey, and goes around it through Nineveh Governorate, adding that the Kurdish authorities believe that excluding the region from the plan has political and economic motives and aims to weaken the Kurdish region.[/size]
[size=45]The report pointed out that the Kurdistan Workers' Party, which has a strong presence in western Nineveh Governorate and across the border in Syria and which has entered into a long conflict with the Turkish government, may obstruct construction work or even threaten the transportation process on the “development road.”[/size]
[size=45]The report considered that the relative weakness of the Iraqi government and the presence of armed factions, some of which have a history of extortion and embezzlement, may represent an additional real obstacle to the project, noting that some armed groups allied with Iran, which have established a strong presence in northern Iraq and in the Iraqi-Turkish-Syrian triangle, have They constitute a security threat.[/size]
[size=45]After the report talked about the presence of another factor that raises doubts about the possibility of implementing the project, which is the presence of a variety of competing regional interconnection projects, each of which has major geopolitical and geoeconomic repercussions, it said that what may complicate matters is that Iraq is stuck today between the need to develop its infrastructure using... His rising oil revenues and the fact that his domestic politics are increasingly tied to regional rivalries.[/size]
[size=45]The report provided examples such as what is happening regarding the Gaza war, the threats of Iran and its regional allies, and the tensions in the Red Sea. The report considered that in light of the Houthi attacks on ships in this sea lane, such a situation could make the “development path” a useful alternative, but Since Ansar Allah is part of the “axis of resistance” led by Iran, it is unlikely to encourage Tehran and its Iraqi allies to find an alternative route for trade, through Iraq.[/size]
[size=45]The geographical location of Iraq[/size]
[size=45]The report continued that Iraq does not occupy a major position in Chinese plans to improve regional interconnection, as the land route proposed by Beijing passes broadly through Central Asia and Turkey, and not through Iraq, and that therefore the Iraqi government portrayed Al-Faw port as a complementary project, providing a new sea route that could It would also serve China and the rising economic powers in Asia, by shortening the time and costs of trade with Europe.[/size]
[size=45]He added, “Even here, Iraq faces fierce competition from neighboring countries, some of which are more established in international trade, port management and shipping, such as the UAE, and some of which have the ability to disrupt Iraq’s plans to implement the path of development, such as Turkey, Iran and Kuwait.”[/size]
[size=45]He also pointed out that Turkish support for the “development road,” which is necessary for the project, is conditional on Ankara’s ability to benefit from it, which is why Turkey opposed the Indian Road initiative sponsored by the United States last September.[/size]
[size=45]He added that Washington appears to have two motives for supporting this plan: the first is to confront China's Belt Initiative, and the second is to enhance Israel's integration into the Middle East.[/size]
[size=45]However, the report said that there are factors that may limit Turkish interest in the “development path,” and they are not only related to the difficulties that Iraq may face in implementing the project, and this includes Iraqi-Turkish disputes, especially with regard to Turkish security operations in northern Iraq against the Kurdistan Workers’ Party. There are also disputes between the two countries over sharing the waters of the Tigris and Euphrates rivers, and the issue of transporting oil from the Kurdistan Region to Turkey, which Baghdad opposes.[/size]
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