Home
Are Iraq's oil budget estimates realistic? Experts answer /Nina/ realistically and accurately
[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.] | [You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]Number of readings: 95
[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]
[rtl]Baghdad / NINA / Report .. Renas Al-Radhi: A number of experts criticized the Iraqi budget estimates for 2024 regarding the price of a barrel of oil at $ 80.
The experts indicated that this estimate is considered high, as they believe that the estimate of the price of oil in the budget should be more conservative.
Specialists expressed their opinions on the impact of oil price estimates on the Iraqi budget, especially in light of global economic and political fluctuations.
Unrealistic estimates or excessive optimism?
Economic expert Dhurgham Muhammad Ali said in an interview with the National Iraqi News Agency / NINA /: Estimating the price of a barrel of oil in the 2024 budget at $ 80 is considered an excessive estimate, and does not take into account the worst possible scenarios for a decline in oil prices.
He added that this high estimate may lead to the failure to achieve the expected revenues, especially in light of the large deficit that the budget suffers from, which is the largest in the history of Iraq.
Dhurgham indicates that "this mistake is the result of not listening to the opinions of specialists, which led to writing the budget at high and unrealistic prices."
Salaries and increased expenses: Can the budget bear it?
Manar Al-Obaidi, an economic analyst and head of the Iraq Future Economic Foundation, told NINA : "Employee salaries will increase by 14% in 2024, as salaries are expected to reach 56 trillion dinars by the end of the year."
He said this comes amid a 3% drop in oil prices, which increases the burden on the general budget. Despite the increase in non-oil revenues, the heavy reliance on oil revenues poses a major threat, especially with the decline in oil prices.
Covering operating expenses: Is the current oil price enough?
Safwan Qusay, a university professor and economic expert at the University of Baghdad, believes that oil prices, which are currently around $77 per barrel, are still sufficient to cover operating expenses such as salaries for retirees and employees.
Qusay points out that Iraq needs a price of $60 per barrel to cover its basic expenses, while any increase over $69 is allocated to finance the investment budget. Qusay
expects that "the OPEC and its partners meeting may witness talks to further reduce production if prices continue to decline."
Oil Policy Amid Regional Tensions:
Hamza Al-Jawahiri, Iraq’s leading oil expert, highlights the paradox that regional tensions, which usually drive oil prices higher, have not had the impact expected.
Al-Jawahiri points out that “the state’s policies in dealing with oil revenues are not appropriate, as the government relies heavily on hiring employees without actually needing them, which constitutes an additional burden on the budget.”
These differing views show that Iraq’s budget estimates for 2024 may be far from reality, especially in light of the instability of oil prices and regional and international tensions.
With the large budget deficit, the government needs to reconsider its financial and economic policies, and estimate prices more conservatively to ensure the sustainability of public finances.
The Iraqi Economy: Built on Sand..
Former Finance Committee member Ahmed Hama Rashid told the National Iraqi News Agency ( NINA ) that "Iraq's heavy reliance on oil is like building a castle on sand. This description reflects the fragility of the Iraqi economy in the face of oil price fluctuations, which are in turn affected by economic emergencies and world wars."
Rashid warns that "continuing the situation as it is will undoubtedly lead to the need to resort to austerity policies and internal and external borrowing, as happened in 2016 when the Central Bank was forced to sell its bonds." A
financial deficit threatens the economy.
According to official statistics announced by Hama Rashid, Iraq's federal revenues amounted to 137 trillion dinars, while public expenditures reached 211 trillion dinars, indicating a huge financial deficit estimated at 60 trillion dinars. This large deficit increases the likelihood that the government will resort to internal borrowing to cover its obligations, especially with regard to employee salaries, which may be directly affected as a result of this situation.
Internal borrowing: a temporary solution or an additional burden?
Domestic borrowing, which the government may resort to, is not a new solution in Iraq. In 2016, in the midst of a similar economic crisis, the Central Bank was forced to sell its bonds to provide the necessary liquidity. This step, although necessary at the time, may have long-term effects on the economy, especially in light of the lack of clear plans to stimulate non-oil revenues.
It seems that the Iraqi economy is heading towards a critical stage that requires urgent measures to avoid falling into a deeper financial crisis.
With the current challenges continuing, domestic borrowing and cutting spending remain the most likely scenarios in the coming period. /End8[/rtl]
The experts indicated that this estimate is considered high, as they believe that the estimate of the price of oil in the budget should be more conservative.
Specialists expressed their opinions on the impact of oil price estimates on the Iraqi budget, especially in light of global economic and political fluctuations.
Unrealistic estimates or excessive optimism?
Economic expert Dhurgham Muhammad Ali said in an interview with the National Iraqi News Agency / NINA /: Estimating the price of a barrel of oil in the 2024 budget at $ 80 is considered an excessive estimate, and does not take into account the worst possible scenarios for a decline in oil prices.
He added that this high estimate may lead to the failure to achieve the expected revenues, especially in light of the large deficit that the budget suffers from, which is the largest in the history of Iraq.
Dhurgham indicates that "this mistake is the result of not listening to the opinions of specialists, which led to writing the budget at high and unrealistic prices."
Salaries and increased expenses: Can the budget bear it?
Manar Al-Obaidi, an economic analyst and head of the Iraq Future Economic Foundation, told NINA : "Employee salaries will increase by 14% in 2024, as salaries are expected to reach 56 trillion dinars by the end of the year."
He said this comes amid a 3% drop in oil prices, which increases the burden on the general budget. Despite the increase in non-oil revenues, the heavy reliance on oil revenues poses a major threat, especially with the decline in oil prices.
Covering operating expenses: Is the current oil price enough?
Safwan Qusay, a university professor and economic expert at the University of Baghdad, believes that oil prices, which are currently around $77 per barrel, are still sufficient to cover operating expenses such as salaries for retirees and employees.
Qusay points out that Iraq needs a price of $60 per barrel to cover its basic expenses, while any increase over $69 is allocated to finance the investment budget. Qusay
expects that "the OPEC and its partners meeting may witness talks to further reduce production if prices continue to decline."
Oil Policy Amid Regional Tensions:
Hamza Al-Jawahiri, Iraq’s leading oil expert, highlights the paradox that regional tensions, which usually drive oil prices higher, have not had the impact expected.
Al-Jawahiri points out that “the state’s policies in dealing with oil revenues are not appropriate, as the government relies heavily on hiring employees without actually needing them, which constitutes an additional burden on the budget.”
These differing views show that Iraq’s budget estimates for 2024 may be far from reality, especially in light of the instability of oil prices and regional and international tensions.
With the large budget deficit, the government needs to reconsider its financial and economic policies, and estimate prices more conservatively to ensure the sustainability of public finances.
The Iraqi Economy: Built on Sand..
Former Finance Committee member Ahmed Hama Rashid told the National Iraqi News Agency ( NINA ) that "Iraq's heavy reliance on oil is like building a castle on sand. This description reflects the fragility of the Iraqi economy in the face of oil price fluctuations, which are in turn affected by economic emergencies and world wars."
Rashid warns that "continuing the situation as it is will undoubtedly lead to the need to resort to austerity policies and internal and external borrowing, as happened in 2016 when the Central Bank was forced to sell its bonds." A
financial deficit threatens the economy.
According to official statistics announced by Hama Rashid, Iraq's federal revenues amounted to 137 trillion dinars, while public expenditures reached 211 trillion dinars, indicating a huge financial deficit estimated at 60 trillion dinars. This large deficit increases the likelihood that the government will resort to internal borrowing to cover its obligations, especially with regard to employee salaries, which may be directly affected as a result of this situation.
Internal borrowing: a temporary solution or an additional burden?
Domestic borrowing, which the government may resort to, is not a new solution in Iraq. In 2016, in the midst of a similar economic crisis, the Central Bank was forced to sell its bonds to provide the necessary liquidity. This step, although necessary at the time, may have long-term effects on the economy, especially in light of the lack of clear plans to stimulate non-oil revenues.
It seems that the Iraqi economy is heading towards a critical stage that requires urgent measures to avoid falling into a deeper financial crisis.
With the current challenges continuing, domestic borrowing and cutting spending remain the most likely scenarios in the coming period. /End8[/rtl]
[rtl][You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]
[/rtl]
[/rtl]
» utube 10/10/24 MM&C Iraqi Dinar-International Focus-WTO File Joining Completed-Regularization of G
» Iraq in the crosshairs of cyber attacks: Dismantling suspicious contracts is a necessity to protect
» Real Estate Market: A Haven for Money Laundering and Projects Targeting Wealthy Elites
» Resuming morning and evening shifts at registration complexes in Baghdad and the governorates
» Washington begins deploying the latest air defense systems in the Silk Road
» Iraqi Parliament Discusses Budget Law with Finance Minister, Customs and Tax Officials
» Parliamentary Services: Governmental move to implement a package of new projects
» Bitcoin has an unusually quiet period awaiting the results of the US elections
» Iraq's oil production in September is less than its OPEC+ quota
» Finance offers government bonds worth up to 1.3 trillion dinars
» With the opening of trading on the stock exchange.. 1531 dinars per dollar
» Parliamentary Committee Determines Reasons for Reducing Oil Production in Iraq
» More than $270 million in central bank sales at today's auction
» Ministerial committee to study {sulfur emissions}
» Al-Sudani reviews the commission's preparations for the regional elections
» 135 investment opportunities in the industrial sector
» Completion of (26) schools within the Chinese loan in Maysan
» Committees to establish an artificial intelligence department in vocational schools
» Early 2025.. Advanced electronic campaign to detect weapons
» Are Iraq's oil budget estimates realistic? Experts answer /Nina/ realistically and accurately
» Minister of Industry inaugurates Baghdad Industry and Mining Forum
» Rafidain announces the implementation of the comprehensive banking system in 44 branches
» Iraq's oil exports to the United States rose last week
» Finance announces the issuance of the third issue of “Injaz” government bonds
» Parliamentary Foreign Affairs Committee reveals the most important files of Araghchi's visit to Bagh
» US Congressional delegation assures Nechirvan Barzani of continued support for Kurdistan Region
» Between Netanyahu’s “crazy” plans and Iran’s nuclear program, Washington complains to Baghdad about
» Baghdad Chamber of Commerce: Kurdistan Region and the Center Agree to Resolve Trade Problems
» Election struggle in the region: The Kurdish Change Movement.. How can the “ruins of a scattered par
» Parliamentary praise for government financial support for {Guests of Iraq}
» Baghdad will cover the deficit in Kurdistan employees’ salaries for September, and a source reveals
» Al-Sudani directs to stop the tax increase related to the transfer of real estate ownership
» Nechirvan Barzani: Our victory in the elections is a victory for Kurdistan
» Al-Sudani calls on the Election Commission to adopt “neutrality and transparency” in the Kurdistan e
» Unemployment rates are declining in Iraq.. How did job opportunities absorb the unemployed?
» Government Advisor: New Shopping Centers Will Reduce Unemployment, Create Competitive Movement
» Parliamentary Transport Committee reveals major violations in Baghdad Airport rehabilitation project
» Legal Committee: We prevent foreign interference in the Personal Status Law and pledge to pass it
» Iraq leads a movement to unify the positions of Arab and Islamic parliaments to reduce escalation in
» Iranian Foreign Minister arrives in Baghdad tomorrow
» Al-Sudani and Macron discuss joint declaration to end presence of international coalition
» Al-Sudani chairs the periodic meeting of the Supreme Committee for Digital Transformation
» More than a billion dollars in sales from the Central Bank of Iraq during the week
» Rafidain Bank: Implementing the comprehensive banking system in 44 branches
» MP presents 3 proposals to solve the problem of salaries of Kurdistan Region employees
» "We do not register your child unless his mother is an employee." A new decision for kindergartens o
» Government Directive on Tax Increase for Transfer of Property Ownership
» Tomorrow.. The Minister of Oil will resume his work in the ministry
» Defense and Foreign Affairs launch an invitation to citizens in exchange for a "financial reward"
» Dollar exchange rate drops against dinar in Iraq
» Statistics on the number of deaths and infections from hemorrhagic fever and cholera in Iraq
» An absent minister, “suspicious” agents, and “absent” oversight... Oil is at its worst and smugglers
» Iraq recovers 197 artifacts from Arab and foreign countries
» Iraq ACCESSION Members welcome Iraq’s return to WTO accession talks after 16 years
» utube 10/9/24 MM&C Iraq Dinar News-Optimization-Automation-Digital-Schedule Date-Secured Salaries
» Iraq.. Fourth in the Arab world in cheapest electricity prices
» Parliamentary Legal: No postponement of important laws and voting on them is linked to political agr
» Adnan to Al-Mirbad: The 13,000 file is vague and there was no need to delay the draw
» Basra Government: 12,295 beneficiaries of degrees have been published, and the remaining 857 are for
» "Autumn" economic recession in Iraq.. and a government advisor explains the reasons
» MP reveals Iraqi efforts to build the most important pharmaceutical factories in the Middle East
» Silk Road Base Enters High Alert Status Suddenly
» Al-Sudani agrees to pay compensation to farmers in Anbar
» Integrity investigates Anbar official for involvement in corruption and money laundering
» Iraqi Foreign Ministry: Corruption, Diplomatic Dispersion, and Embassies Without a Community
» 14 officials in the Kurdistan Regional Government resign due to political differences
» 100% completion rate of the designs of the gas development project in the Artawi field
» Iraq achieves abundance in wheat crop, but the government suffers losses
» Increase in revenues from international communication capacities through Iraq
» Parliamentary Finance Committee praises Al-Sudani: He has a real will to boost non-oil revenues
» Baghdad Council reveals reasons for tampering with monthly pricing of private generatorsBaghdad rank
» Baghdad Council reveals reasons for tampering with monthly pricing of private generators
» Turkish Trade Minister to visit Iraq next week
» Rafidain: Seizure of shares, bonds and balances in the Jordanian arena of an Iraqi businessman indeb
» Postponement of the "Iraq Investment Forum" for this reason
» An agreement suffocates Baghdad.. Blackness covers its sky and sulfur kills its residents with serio
» Integrity Commission arrests the director of Samawah Central Prison red-handed for bribery
» Al-Sudani: Neutrality, transparency and electoral justice must be adopted in Kurdistan
» Jordan.. Rafidain Bank seizes the assets of an Iraqi businessman who owes 625 billion dinars
» Iraqi oil slowly moves towards $80 per barrel
» An Iraqi reading answers the mystery of the “deep breaches” in the Iranian Revolutionary Guard
» Experts: Boosting revenues and activating the private sector are necessary to confront the fluctuati
» “Lack of liquidity”... Revealing the reasons for the delay in releasing the Ministry of Health’s all
» Planning dispels fears: Questions for the census or for tax disclosure?
» Energy war warnings are “expanding”... and Iraqi hints at Yemen and Iran’s involvement in it
» Minister of Commerce directs taking measures to protect food security
» Immigration reveals the latest developments of Lebanese immigrants to Iraq
» Turkish Trade Minister in Baghdad this week
» Trade supports low-income people through 6 marketing centers
» By name.. government officials of the Change Movement who submitted their resignations
» Al-Awadi: Iraq's approach emphasizes regional and international cooperation to stop the Zionist aggr
» Al-Sudani receives the Electoral Commission Board
» KRG: We have cut our oil production in half
» Position of the European Parliament and Amnesty International on the Personal Status Law in Iraq
» Parliamentary Legal: No postponement of important laws and voting on them is linked to political agr
» Pollution 30 times more dangerous than normal and the authorities remain silent.. What is the secret
» Dollar to Dinar Exchange Rates in Iraq Today
» Iraq ranks last globally and Arab world in the Nature Conservation Index 2024