Edmonton Oilers

G78 Oilers vs Ducks: Talbot Seeks Redemption
April 1, 2017, 2:29 PM ET [55 Comments]
Matt Henderson
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Edmonton has picked a pretty fantastic time of the year to get hot. The Oil are 8-2-0 in their last 10 games and tonight in a rematch against the Ducks they can overtake the top spot in the Pacific Division. Yes, it’s April 1st. No, this isnt an elaborate prank. For Oiler fans who have had to temper their expectations all year waiting for that awful thing to happen and ruin all their dreams, this isnt going to be a Carrie situation. There isnt a bucket of pig’s blood waiting above the stage. This is real.

The Edmonton Oilers are a good team. Full stop. They are competing for top spot in their division and home ice advantage in at least 1 round this spring. Full stop.

Feel free to enjoy that for a moment.

The last time the Oilers faced the Ducks the team played poorly in front of Talbot and Talbot played even worse than the skaters. He had to be pulled and Brossoit earned some cred by putting together a great effort in relief. The Oilers clawed their way back to make the final score 4-3 but the final score flatters the Oil a bit. They had blown that game. The only positive was that after Talbot was pulled the game was all Edmonton, but even that comes with the caveat that the Ducks went into a defensive shell and let Edmonton attack.

Talbot should be itching for some revenge and feeling a lot more confident after a really solid outing against the freefalling Sharks. Just like the last game, this one is a potential preview of a Playoff matchup, though as it stands it might have to wait for the 2nd round if the standings don’t significantly change (yes, I can even talk about the 2nd round of the playoffs!). Cam Talbot’s wobble was enough to get my heart rate up for a little while, but his overall season has been fantastic.

Talbot leads the NHL in starts (69), shots against (2027), saves (1867), is 3rd in wins (39) and is holding down a .921 save percentage. Among the 28 goaltenders who have played at least 2000 minutes this season, Talbot is 8th in 5v5 save percentage (.9316). He’s also 8th in 4v5 save percentage this year among those with at least 200 minutes on the PK. While he’s certainly not my pick for the Vezina, there has been more and more talk from media types that he should at least be in consideration. All year there has been an ongoing battle between him and McDavid for who should be considered the Oilers MVP. That alone is impressive since McDavid ought to win the Hart trophy this year.

Importantly, with Talbot and McDavid alone the Oilers would have a chance to win in any game they played this year. That they’ve also finally had a supporting cast of actual NHL players is what has propelled them from the bottom of the league to the top of the Pacific. The other day Drew Doughty went on record saying that the change was that the Oilers’ star players finally bought into a defensive system. I’m skeptical of that having a bigger impact (or even being a thing) than having 4 NHL centermen, 7 NHL defensemen, and a goalie playing at “Vezina consideration” levels. You could not possibly have described the Oilers that way at any time since 2006 (and only after Roli was acquired).

I have my concerns about the overall game of the Oilers and things like their shot attempt percentage dropping over time, but I also know that the best player in the world plays for Edmonton. Typically that’s been enough to make me worry less about things.

LINEUP

Gryba in for Benning

Maroon McDavid Draisaitl
Lucic RNH Eberle
Pouliot Desharnais Kassian
Caggiula Letestu Slepyshev

Klefbom Larsson
Sekera Russell
Nurse Gryba

Talbot
Brossoit

OILERS KEYS TO THE GAME

1) The Kill. The Oiler penalty kill has fluctuated between solid and problematic all year. At the beginning of the season they were on top of the world. That was primarily driven by Talbot’s save percentage. When Talbot started to fall back down to expected levels, the penalty kill also took a hit. There was also the matter of losing Edmonton’s favorite whipping boy, Benoit Pouliot. As it so happens, Benoit Pouliot is the Oiler forward with the lowest on-ice Fenwick against while shorthanded. What does that mean? It means when Pouliot is on the penalty kill, the opposition is only getting 65.72 unblocked shot attempts off per 60 minutes. There is nobody else below 71 on the Oilers. So when Pouliot was out, the team was down one of its best penalty killers. Since March 10th (when Pouliot came back) the Oilers have a 92.6% efficiency on the PK and are 2nd in the NHL over that time. It’s not all Pouliot, but he’s definitely helping. Oh, and some kid named Connor McDavid just had an incredible shorty last game.

2) Bombs Away. As we are approaching the end of the regular season there are a lot of people wondering out loud who the best Oiler defender has been this year. To me, the answer cannot be anyone other than Oscar Klefbom. That’s not to say Sekera or Benning haven’t had their stretches where they were fantastic, but from beginning to end it’s the Swede for me. It’s hard to overlook his goal scoring this year. His 0.41 G/60 ranks in the top 10 for NHL D with at least 750 minutes played 5v5 this season. The fact that he plays his minutes without taking many penalties at all is also incredibly valuable. He has just 6 PIMs this year. He could be a candidate for the Lady Byng with that combination. He is a puck mover who is still less than 200 games into his NHL career. Klefbom is coming into his own as an NHL player, and unlocking his shot from the point has forced the opposition to respect Edmonton’s attack.

3) We Just Live In It. This is Connor McDavid’s world. We just live in it. He is the NHL’s leading scorer. There are 5 games left and his lead in the scoring race is now just 4 points after Patrick Kane had a solid night. The Oiler Captain is fully aware of this and on an incredible scoring pace along with his German linemate. We are seeing what happens when big game players start playing big games. It is an open challenge to the opposition to try to stop him. That goal he scored shorthanded has been branded hockey porn by Twitter. You actually need to watch it slow motion to fully appreciate all the things he does in a split second. His puck-handling, speed, agility, and hockey IQ are so remarkable. Watching at ¼ speed also gives you a glimpse into what the game looks like inside McDavid’s head. What could be better than watching this kid play hockey tonight?

Puck drops tonight at 8PM Mountain Time on Hockey Night in Canada. Game On!