Los Angeles Kings

Figuring Forbort Out
April 7, 2017, 5:03 PM ET [3 Comments]
Sheng Peng
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Robyn Regehr, Rob Scuderi, and Derek Forbort share a dubious distinction.

Since 2012-13, the three defensemen possess four of the worst single-season 5v5 Relative Corsi For % figures among qualified Kings defensemen (500+ 5v5 minutes).

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Regehr and Scuderi were not, shall we say, popular among advanced stats adherents.

But we're talking about Forbort. And different times (and players) demand different analysis.

First, and this should go without saying, but still bears repeating: Corsi is not a be-all, end-all stat. It was never intended as such. As observers, we evolved beyond overemphasizing plus-minus and giveaways and takeaways -- and now, we can attempt to look past Corsi.

Second, the Kings, despite lofty shot attempt percentages year after year, look beyond Corsi themselves. The usage of players like Regehr, Scuderi, and Jordan Nolan (career -6.1 Even Strength Rel.CF%) is no accident.

Last season, Forbort actually led Los Angeles blueliners with a +5.57 Rel.CF% (in a small sample size), but at the time, the organization seemed underwhelmed with their 2010 first-round pick. This year, his defensemen-worst Rel.CF% clearly hasn't hurt his standing with the team, as he's racking up top-four minutes.

So what does the team see in Forbort now?

Mike Futa, Kings Vice President of Hockey Operations, suggested over the summer to Gann Matsuda:

The ability to defend and make simple plays -- we’ve always said, "Why can’t this kid be a 6-4 Scuderi?"


Indeed, whatever your opinions of Scuderi and Regehr -- and it's worth noting the vast difference between 2012 Scuderi and the 2016 edition -- Forbort evokes some of their best qualities:

Shot Blocking

This was more Scuderi's forte, though Regehr did not shy away.

While Alec Martinez leads the team in Total Shot Blocks (164), Forbort actually holds a slight edge in Shot Block Rate -- 1.93 Shot Blocks/20 over Martinez's 1.9.

There's been a lot of discussion, centered around Kris Russell, about the true value of shot blocks. Gus Katsaros represents the new school of thought:

Leading in shot blocks means that the opposition likely has the puck to begin with, clearly an undesirable situation.


Whatever your opinion, we can probably all agree that at least a willingness to block shots for a defender is important, because there are times when you have no better option. Forbort has proven to be an enthusiastic volunteer in this regard.

Discipline

Once again, this is more Scuderi's specialty. In his last three full campaigns, he registered under 20 Penalty Minutes per season.

This year, Forbort has the least PIMs (17) of the team's most-used rearguards (Drew Doughty, 42; Alec Martinez, 38; Jake Muzzin, 28).

Physicality

This is clearly more Regehr than Scuderi. The Brazilian led LA's defense with 3.0 Hits/GP in his last season, while "The Piece" always concentrated on being sound positionally.

Forbort tops blueliners in Total Hits (176) this season, though his Hit Rate trails Matt Greene and Brayden McNabb.

Hitting a lot of people, like blocking a lot of shots, doesn't necessarily make you a great defenseman, but it's something the Kings prize about Forbort.

Battle

Even in their declining years, both Scuderi and Regehr were tough to beat down low and along the boards in one-on-one battles because of their combination of smarts, reach, stick, strength, and willingness to engage.

In much the same way, John Stevens told Jon Rosen in January, "[Forbort] has the ability to get play stopped by being firm."

I'll show you some examples later.

Penalty Killing

Like Scuderi and Regehr before him, Forbort has teamed with Doughty for an effective first-choice PK pairing. Forbort's "firmness" has been a clear asset.

Since November 3rd, when Forbort ascended to regular penalty killing duty, Los Angeles has paced the league with an 86.5 % kill rate. They were 26th before then.

The team's underlying stats with Forbort go along with the results -- their 63.07 Shorthanded Fenwick Against/60 since early November is third in the NHL.

Of course, Forbort doesn't deserve credit for the entirety of LA's penalty-killing prowess. But the numbers support the eye test -- he's a plus on the kill.

***

Of course, none of these skills -- Shot Blocking, Discipline, Physicality, Battle, and Penalty Killing -- are news about Forbort.

There is, however, a key difference between the 25-year-old and Scuderi/Regehr: Forbort's mobility.

These skating chops give him a reasonable chance to rise above both his veteran comps, both defensively and offensively. Here's how -- there won't be a lot of similar tape from Scuderi/Regehr: