Vancouver Canucks

Hits, misses and final rankings show the uncertain nature of the NHL draft
June 15, 2017, 3:24 PM ET [124 Comments]
Carol Schram
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I'm in the process of putting the finishing touches on a massive project that has had me combing through a ton of stat sheets from the NHL as well as international hockey and junior hockey. It has been fascinating to look back on the history to see the many different routes that today's top players have taken to get to where they are now.

A couple of weeks ago, I marvelled at how Mark Scheifele was considered a gamble when he was taken seventh overall after just one year of major junior. I've been shaking my head for awhile at the idea that a player as talented as Erik Karlsson could be taken 15th overall in 2008 and win the Norris Trophy by 21—surely his skating and his hockey sense were obvious?

Karlsson did rise in the Central Scouting draft rankings during the 2007-08 season—from No. 63 at midseason to No. 4 in the final rankings for European skaters. Part of that rise was fuelled by Karlsson being named top defenseman in April's U18 tournament—even though Sweden failed to win a medal.

But Karlsson was listed at 5'11" and 165 pounds on those final rankings. Would you be pushing to draft a Swedish defenseman with those numbers right now?

Apparently a lot of the NHL's general managers were hesitant, too—including brand new Canucks GM Mike Gillis, who picked Cody Hodgson at 10. But Ottawa's top scout loved Karlsson and was surprised that he didn't go in the top seven. The Sens had the 18th pick and when Karlsson was still available at 15, GM Bryan Murray threw in a third-round pick in a deal with Nashville that allowed him to move up three spots. The rest is history.

Karlsson went back to Sweden for one year, but was named top defenseman at the 2009 World Junior Championship in Ottawa, where the Swedes won a silver medal. He made the Senators at age 19 and played 60 games at the NHL level in his rookie season, but didn't receive a single vote in a 2009-10 Calder Trophy race that named Tyler Myers the rookie of the year.

Life moves fast. Two years later, Karlsson was a Norris winner and this year, he got a third-place vote for Conn Smythe MVP even though his Senators didn't make the Stanley Cup Final.

Certainly, not every undersized Swedish defenseman is going to turn out to be Karlsson—heck, the Canucks drafted Gustav Forsling at 5'11" and 172 pounds in 2014. He moved up from 62 to 25 among European skaters for the final Central Scouting draft rankings and Vancouver was able to get him in the fifth round, before he was named to the all-star team at the 2016 World Junior Championship as Sweden's team captain.

Forsling turned 21 earlier this week. He's now listed at 6'0" and 186 pounds—almost identical to Karlsson's 6'0" and 191 pounds, but that's where the similarities end. By the end of his 20-year-old season, Karlsson had already played 135 NHL games and put up 71 points over two years. Forsling played 38 games with the Chicago Blackhawks last year, recording five points, and was not used in the playoffs.

My point, of course, is that other than a few extreme cases, it's so hard to predict how a player will turn out after he's drafted. Patrick Kane looks like a totally worthy No. 1 pick in retrospect, but even though he was an offensive dynamo, he was ranked second among North American Skaters for the 2007 draft—behind Kyle Turris—mostly because he was 5'9.5" and 160 pounds. The Blackhawks took a chance with Kane.

If you'd like to take a look at the full Central Scouting rankings for the last decade—with heights and weights included—click here. That'll take you to the 2008 rankings—where you'll also see Zach Bogosian listed above Drew Doughty as the top North American defenseman available. The Los Angeles Kings went against the conventional wisdom when they chose Doughty with the second pick that year, too.

To look at different years, just change the last digit(s) in the URL line. You can go back farther with this link to the Draft Analyst, which includes a not-quite-complete archive going back to 1997, but it doesn't include heights and weights.

If you want to compare heights and weights of this year's full list of prospects:




In the days leading up to the draft, I will look more closely at this year's top candidates, but given Jim Benning's propensity for digging up lesser-known players in later rounds, I'm pretty content to sit back and see how the draft unfolds before I get too deep into analysis. That being said, I know the draft fuels a lot of you on a daily basis and I love reading the discussions. Keep 'er going!

A couple of final thoughts here from Corey Pronman, who's one of the top draft analysts in his role for ESPN.







I'll buckle up and enjoy the ride!

A couple of other items to wrap up today. First, the Canucks preseason schedule for 2017 has been finalized. It includes the first-ever game for the Vegas Golden Knights, on September 17 at Rogers Arena.




Second—after missing out on Rocky Thompson, word is that the Canucks have eight names on their list for the next head coach of the Utica Comets.




Ed Willes suggests that the Canucks may have waited too long before making a move on Thompson, which helped finalize his decision to join the Vegas farm team, the Chicago Wolves.

Word also surfaced yesterday about another candidate who turned them down.




And finally—this just in! The Montreal Canadiens have traded defense prospect Mikhail Sergachev to the Tampa Bay Lightning for Jonathan Drouin!




In addition to ending the Drouin saga in Tampa Bay, the move also gives the Lightning one more slot to protect a player in the expansion draft. Montreal will need to protect him, so they'll need to expose someone else.