Analysis: Maliki grave error with the year and why the "ignore" Washington?

Analysis: Maliki grave error with the year and why the "ignore" Washington?


Monday, January 9, 2014, last updated 15:45 (GMT +0400)

By Charles Lester, a researcher at the Brookings Doha center in the Qatari capital.
(CNN) - probably accounted for the bloody events in each of Fallujah and Ramadi with all the lights in recent times, but the al-Anbar province, two cities where they are located, was still a long time ago, a stronghold of opposition to Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki.
And influenced by the general situation in Iraq, politically, economically and socially, the relationship between the two communities which Sunnis and Shiites. And now look Fallujah and Ramadi, far away from the control of the central government, and to varying degrees, the authorities stuck between Sunni militias and local police backed by the families of the two regions, and also by militias belonging to the militant organization "Daash."
Having launched a military campaign stressing the organization "Daash" in the desert of Anbar on December 23 / December, conveys the Iraqi army now most interest to secure the cities and villages of the province.
The form of the arrest of a prominent Sunni lawmaker Ahmed al-Alwani and included a brother of the killed in Ramadi on December 28 / December, reason enough for local residents to express their anger, but the decision to remove the camp sit-in campaign after two days, it was simply a step is calculated.
The move has prompted the local tribes to call for arms and demanded the withdrawal of federal troops from the province and later appeared convoys of gunmen organizing "Daash" in the streets of Fallujah and Ramadi.
Read also .. opinion: violence Anbar proof of the failure Maliki
And now, it seems the army on alert to launch a large-scale operation in Fallujah, which is now under the control of clans and "Daash" extortionist with some gray Sunni decided pragmatic steps and are cooperating with the local forces to Ngiv limited operations against "Daash."
The security of Iraq already fragile before the explosion of the situation in Anbar, 2013 was the bloodiest year since 2008. Can be downloaded responsibility to launch a large part of those operations during 2013 to organize "Daash" benefiting from the expansion of its operations in neighboring Syria.
Now, with the elections approaching in April / April, it seems Nouri al-Maliki in the unenviable situation where there is under pressure to show itself in the form of the strong man, especially for the rest of the allies of the Shiite parties and movements.
Read also .. Maliki asked the support of the Security Council and the Mufti of the year attacking army
In recent months, the use of Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki, a sectarian approach and clear when he refers to the "Sunni elements" opposed to his government, but he was considered at some times sit in Ramadi linked to Al-Qaeda.
In the absence of clear evidence, the growing conviction that the reference to "al-Qaeda" is just a political use. But that does not mean that "the organization Daash" which upheld officially end its relationship with al-Qaeda since 2007, is not a threat. But it is provocative to influential clans in Anbar, which was influential role in the local security forces one of the factors that prevented the "Daash" in any of the previous existence in the desert where they are located province.
Ironically, the campaign ordered by Maliki against protests and arrests gray bloody Alwani behind the creation of favorable conditions for the transmission of militants "Daash" into the cities. But they are not the only force on the ground. In Fallujah, dissidents opposed the security men and the men of the families of the existence of any armed forces of the Federation, but now they make up the most obvious force in the region.
The protests and demonstrations to stop the opposition before the elections is vital for al-Maliki. However, the approach adopted by the exploitation of the threat posed by Tnim "Daash" to impose military control on the Sunni-majority Anbar, a decision was blind.
The military forces of the Shiite provinces like Dhi Qar, Maysan and Basra shows his desire to rely on forces seen as loyal and trustworthy, including increases corresponded vow bloody fight.
Although there is an opportunity for dialogue and negotiation, the military action seems inevitable. It is likely to be using aerial bombing and firing to prepare for a ground operation, including civilian casualties are likely in excess of the growing hostility of the government.
The experienced American forces in 2004 and the hardness of Fallujah is satisfied that the blockade does not help either lasted for days or weeks.
Taking into account the seriousness of the threat posed by the organization "Daash" It was not surprising that crosses U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry for his country's support for the operation ordered by al-Maliki in Anbar, although the hint to the discomfort of an operation involving the deployment of troops on the ground.
In December / December, Washington sent 75 missile "Hellfire" to the Iraqi army also pledged acceleration in the sale of an additional 100 missiles by the spring, and the exploration of unmanned aircraft will represent the U.S. in support of Iraqi forces.
Perhaps it is something reasonable on paper, but when we put it in the last geopolitical framework, which saw changes in the U.S. relationship with its allies in the past year and make it closer to the Shiite forces posed by Iran, it needs to be considered further. Can not use very sophisticated military equipment and military operation against a complex year by a military command Shiite and Shiite forces using only further deterioration of the situation.
In Iraq, and other countries in the region, tribesmen plays a vital role in resolving such situations, especially after dominating the organization "Daash" parts in the province.But now it seems tribesmen look to al-Maliki, and not "Daash" on the grounds that the first enemy. It also goes without saying that the local security forces and not the federal enjoyed a strong and productive relationship with the tribes and will be the backbone of any fighting force in Anbar, just look at the features of the gray.
If the army decided to move actually in the process of comprehensive, it would "organize Daash" the biggest beneficiary of that. And a decade ago, the U.S. military launched two massive two operations against insurgents in Fallujah. Although the parties to the conflict seem to have changed, however, and it seems the history is repeating itself.
Editor's Note: What is stated in the article does not represent the viewpoint of CNN does not reflect only the opinion of the writer
 

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