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Shafaq News/ Political analysts in Western institutions saw, on Wednesday, that the leader of the Iraqi Sadrist movement, Muqtada al-Sadr, aspires to be the strongest Shiite political leader, noting that his ambition does not stop at "undermining" the regime only, but also "the Shiite house" to achieve his goal.
Renad Mansour, a researcher at the British "Chatham House" Foundation, told AFP, "Al-Sadr aspires to become the most powerful Shiite political actor in Iraq... This is his ambition, and its realization requires, in part, not only to destabilize the political system itself, but also the Shiite house and restore Arrange it to be at its center.”
Since the 2003 US-led invasion that toppled the former regime, Iraq has been run under a sectarian power-sharing system.
Gradually Muqtada al-Sadr, whose father, Muhammad Sadiq al-Sadr, was one of the most respected Shiite clerics in Iraq, became a major political player, backed by a Shiite popular base that he often mobilizes to press for his demands.
Since the legislative elections last October, differences prevail between al-Sadr and the coordination framework that includes rival Shiite forces backed by Iran, which has hindered the formation of a new government.
Tensions escalated sharply on Monday, when Sadr loyalists stormed the government palace inside the fortified Green Zone after their leader announced his "retirement" from politics.
But Sadr's supporters left the Green Zone on Tuesday afternoon after he personally asked them to withdraw within an hour, reflecting his great influence on his followers that earned him his reputation as a ruler.
At least 30 of al-Sadr's supporters were shot dead and about 600 were wounded during nearly twenty-four hours of clashing with other Shiite factions.
Renad Mansour pointed out that "this is not the first time that he has sent demonstrators and then asked them to withdraw," estimating that "his goal and ultimate goal is to become the main Shiite political force in Iraq."
'sterile path'
The Sadrist movement won 73 parliamentary seats in the October elections, making it the largest bloc in the 329-seat parliament.
And a professor at the University of Copenhagen, Fanar Haddad, believes that Al-Sadr has since conducted a series of "failed maneuvers to consolidate his dominance within the political system and remove his rivals."
Muqtada al-Sadr "failed" to form a new government despite attempts to form an alliance with Sunni and Kurdish political actors.
Following this, al-Sadr in June ordered the 73 members of his current party to resign in an attempt to destabilize parliament, but the result was counterproductive, as the move gave the coordination framework new seats to become the largest bloc in the parliament.
Haddad considered the recent events in the Green Zone in Baghdad as another tactical "failure".
He said that "the coordination framework did not issue conciliatory statements or concessions or anything like that" after al-Sadr asked his supporters to withdraw.
"This pushes everyone to a sterile path full of conflicting positions," he added. "The possibility of reconciliation seems weaker, not the other way around."
More escalation
Al-Sadr is famous for retracting previous pledges to retire from politics that he had made over the years.
Sajjad Jiyad, a researcher at Century International, said his recent announcement of his retirement on Monday came after a series of tactical challenges to his political rise, including from within the ranks of his supporters.
Last Sunday, the Shiite cleric, Ayatollah Kazem al-Haeri, who provides a religious cover for al-Sadr and is imitated by many of his loyalists, announced that he would not continue to oppose the marja'iya and called on his imitators to follow the Iranian Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, which is a blow to Muqtada al-Sadr's legitimacy.
Jiyad considered that this was "an attack on Al-Sadr in his person and as a leader."
He added, "Al-Haeri is a religious guide to Al-Sadr..Muqtada was always keen to say that he does not act on his own, but rather has a religious cover from Al-Hairi."
Jiyad estimated that in the face of mounting challenges, Sadr now has limited options and the least likely is to take a step back.
"He could launch other protests and put pressure to prevent the coordination framework from forming a government," the expert added.
Al-Sadr may continue to press for the dissolution of parliament and the holding of new elections, and perhaps even escalation through moves that would paralyze the work of ministries and oil fields, according to Sajjad Jiyad.
The researcher concluded, "It seems that the stalemate may continue for a while, but it also seems that the future will witness more escalation."
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Expect a new escalation... Western institutions: Al-Sadr aspires to "dominate" Iraqi politics
Shafaq News/ Political analysts in Western institutions saw, on Wednesday, that the leader of the Iraqi Sadrist movement, Muqtada al-Sadr, aspires to be the strongest Shiite political leader, noting that his ambition does not stop at "undermining" the regime only, but also "the Shiite house" to achieve his goal.
Renad Mansour, a researcher at the British "Chatham House" Foundation, told AFP, "Al-Sadr aspires to become the most powerful Shiite political actor in Iraq... This is his ambition, and its realization requires, in part, not only to destabilize the political system itself, but also the Shiite house and restore Arrange it to be at its center.”
Since the 2003 US-led invasion that toppled the former regime, Iraq has been run under a sectarian power-sharing system.
Gradually Muqtada al-Sadr, whose father, Muhammad Sadiq al-Sadr, was one of the most respected Shiite clerics in Iraq, became a major political player, backed by a Shiite popular base that he often mobilizes to press for his demands.
Since the legislative elections last October, differences prevail between al-Sadr and the coordination framework that includes rival Shiite forces backed by Iran, which has hindered the formation of a new government.
Tensions escalated sharply on Monday, when Sadr loyalists stormed the government palace inside the fortified Green Zone after their leader announced his "retirement" from politics.
But Sadr's supporters left the Green Zone on Tuesday afternoon after he personally asked them to withdraw within an hour, reflecting his great influence on his followers that earned him his reputation as a ruler.
At least 30 of al-Sadr's supporters were shot dead and about 600 were wounded during nearly twenty-four hours of clashing with other Shiite factions.
Renad Mansour pointed out that "this is not the first time that he has sent demonstrators and then asked them to withdraw," estimating that "his goal and ultimate goal is to become the main Shiite political force in Iraq."
'sterile path'
The Sadrist movement won 73 parliamentary seats in the October elections, making it the largest bloc in the 329-seat parliament.
And a professor at the University of Copenhagen, Fanar Haddad, believes that Al-Sadr has since conducted a series of "failed maneuvers to consolidate his dominance within the political system and remove his rivals."
Muqtada al-Sadr "failed" to form a new government despite attempts to form an alliance with Sunni and Kurdish political actors.
Following this, al-Sadr in June ordered the 73 members of his current party to resign in an attempt to destabilize parliament, but the result was counterproductive, as the move gave the coordination framework new seats to become the largest bloc in the parliament.
Haddad considered the recent events in the Green Zone in Baghdad as another tactical "failure".
He said that "the coordination framework did not issue conciliatory statements or concessions or anything like that" after al-Sadr asked his supporters to withdraw.
"This pushes everyone to a sterile path full of conflicting positions," he added. "The possibility of reconciliation seems weaker, not the other way around."
More escalation
Al-Sadr is famous for retracting previous pledges to retire from politics that he had made over the years.
Sajjad Jiyad, a researcher at Century International, said his recent announcement of his retirement on Monday came after a series of tactical challenges to his political rise, including from within the ranks of his supporters.
Last Sunday, the Shiite cleric, Ayatollah Kazem al-Haeri, who provides a religious cover for al-Sadr and is imitated by many of his loyalists, announced that he would not continue to oppose the marja'iya and called on his imitators to follow the Iranian Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, which is a blow to Muqtada al-Sadr's legitimacy.
Jiyad considered that this was "an attack on Al-Sadr in his person and as a leader."
He added, "Al-Haeri is a religious guide to Al-Sadr..Muqtada was always keen to say that he does not act on his own, but rather has a religious cover from Al-Hairi."
Jiyad estimated that in the face of mounting challenges, Sadr now has limited options and the least likely is to take a step back.
"He could launch other protests and put pressure to prevent the coordination framework from forming a government," the expert added.
Al-Sadr may continue to press for the dissolution of parliament and the holding of new elections, and perhaps even escalation through moves that would paralyze the work of ministries and oil fields, according to Sajjad Jiyad.
The researcher concluded, "It seems that the stalemate may continue for a while, but it also seems that the future will witness more escalation."
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