[size=46]Sudanese advisor identifies two main reasons for the decline in oil prices[/size]
Economy
11:52 - 2023-03-18
[You must be registered and logged in to see this image.]11:52 - 2023-03-18
Today, Saturday, the financial advisor to the Prime Minister, Mazhar Muhammad Salih, identified two main reasons for the decline in global oil prices, while stressing that the decline in oil prices may raise the budget deficit to record levels.
Saleh said, "Indicators of oil markets in the world show that the cycle of oil assets is heading towards a decline, causing semi-deflationary price effects under two influences. and a contraction in aggregate demand, especially in the western economies that import and consume energy, which affects the growth in demand for crude oil in the energy markets
.
He pointed out, "The two factors constitute signs of an oil glut that may lead to a return of oil prices in the current year to an average between 60-65 dollars a barrel, which may prompt the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries or the (OPEC Plus) group to maintain the stability of their countries' budgets by reducing Some of the production according to the quotas of the members, but the decision of OPEC Plus may contradict the hypothetical ceiling for oil prices adopted by the Western economies from the parties to the war in Ukraine and the energy consumers, specifically (NATO countries) that implicitly want to load part of the war bill on the shoulders of the oil-exporting countries and devour their surpluses of oil revenues.
Regarding the possibility of a decrease in oil prices and its impact on the general budget, Saleh stressed that "the draft federal budget law for the year 2023, which was approved by the Council of Ministers in the past few days, was submitted for legislation to the House of Representatives, which approved the price of a barrel of oil of 70 dollars in order to evaluate oil revenues in the aforementioned budget, The possibility of oil prices falling below $70 per barrel of Iraqi oil, which will inevitably expand the planned deficit bill in the federal general budget, currently estimated at about 63 trillion dinars, and may raise the deficit to other record rates, adding between 8-16. One trillion dinars to the aforementioned deficit balance in the event that expenditures remain on their current estimated status, especially if the average price of a barrel of exported oil reaches between 60-65 dollars per barrel.
And Saleh continued, "The entire draft budget has become before the table of the House of Representatives, whose duties are to consider expenditures in light of the expected revenues before legislation," noting that "if the general budget law is legislated as approved by the Council of Ministers, the executive authority will face the possibilities." It is possible for the circulation of oil assets by itself, but in a way that preserves the goals of the government program in protecting and stabilizing the standard of living, without compromising the principle of tightening financial discipline and building spending priorities with high accuracy.
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