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The seriousness of Article 61 in the tripartite budget
Economical 2023/07/03
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Dr.. Ahmed Hamid Al-Hathal
After a difficult labor, the budget was approved by the parliament, and this parliament did not focus much on the economic aspects in the general budget allocations, which reflect the economic role and criterion of success for any government.
The tripartite budget did not change the reality of a different ambition because Article (77) stressed that the Council of Ministers sent the general budget (2024-2025) to the House of Representatives for approval. The financial, social and political aspects were given little attention to the economic aspects, and they also did not rely on financial sustainability analyzes and the principle of costs and returns. This aspect requires extensive and in-depth studies that are difficult for the decision-maker to understand well.
This is evident from the outputs of the general budget and the executive and legislative authority’s vote on Article (61), which emphasized the perseverance of the deficit by excluding it from the amended Financial Management Law No. (6) of (2019). I do not know what is the benefit of approving laws if they are suspended by subsequent laws? This is not an exception for a specific case, but rather a methodology that continues in most of the previous years of the general budget.
The seriousness of this article comes from the increase in the financial burdens on society, and this is further illustrated by the term “financial illusion”, which allowed the budget deficit to increase by more than 20 percent.
The deficit ratios of the gross domestic product, when set at 3 percent or 5 percent, are intended to regulate the work of the budget and control the pace of public finances from the deterioration that will harm future generations that will pay dues today, so the current value of future government debt will be high in view of the indicators of sustainability Financial sustainability and public debt, as it will rise, according to the scenarios of this budget, by more than 70 percent of the gross domestic product, after it had stabilized at about 45 percent, and this is what is called in the economy (the indebtedness trap).
We may witness a state of Ponzi financing, as the items of the general budget will be disrupted in a way that the financial authority cannot control, and then the central bank will intervene more broadly to finance a large part of the government deficit, either through open market operations by purchasing public financial bonds in larger quantities, or by lending public finances in large quantities. Direct, and this is prohibited by the Central Bank of Iraq Law No. 56 of 2004.
Despite the prohibition of direct borrowing, the Central Bank continues to deduct these transfers until an article that consolidates the financial-oil dominance appeared by deducting 23.504 trillion dinars through the Central Bank. This is a dangerous development for monetary stability in light of the continued imbalance of the exchange rate and we are approaching the most dangerous type of inflation Prepares the process of currency collapse and fragile economy.
Most developed and emerging countries put ceilings on government debt so that there is no comfort for politicians to use this debt to finance public finances due to the political and social pressures caused by the mistakes of previous policies and the failure to use real economic methods to achieve economic growth by realizing the added value of the non-rentier sector, so we see that The budget items for the year 2024-2025 are amended according to the requirements of financial sustainability as long as there is financial abundance for this year in order to ensure the continuity of public debt sustainability and fiscal continuity in financing public expenditures without forcing it into structural corrections that harm some economic sectors, and the entry point for such a procedure is to set a ceiling The public debt in the budget ranges between 40-50 percent of the GDP in order to ensure that the public finances will search for other alternatives to enhance fiscal discipline through non-oil revenues, and borrowing according to its philosophy remains in its golden rule.Investment-oriented only to enhance non-oil revenues.
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