“It may lead to civil war.” An analysis warns of the repercussions of the continuation of the oil di

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[size=52]“It may lead to civil war.” An analysis warns of the repercussions of the continuation of the oil dispute between Baghdad and Ankara[/size]

[size=45]An analysis published by the American magazine "Foreign Policy" warned of the dangers of the continuation of the oil dispute between Iraq and Turkey, and the possibility that its repercussions could lead to a civil war in the Kurdistan region, whose repercussions would extend to all parts of the country.[/size]
[size=45]Turkey stopped Iraqi oil flows through the pipeline extending to the port of Ceyhan on March 25, after an ICC arbitration panel ordered Ankara to pay Baghdad compensation of approximately $1.5 billion for damages resulting from the illegal export of oil by the Kurdistan Regional Government between 2014 and 2018.[/size]
[size=45]The analysis believes that the economic, political and legal repercussions of this oil dispute are escalating, with millions of barrels of oil remaining stuck in the ports.[/size]
[size=45]He adds that the pipeline transported about 10 percent of total Iraqi exports, which is equivalent to 0.5 percent of global production.[/size]
[size=45]Turkey's suspension of exports, among other reasons, has pushed global oil prices above $70 a barrel.[/size]
[size=45]Moreover, oil export revenues represent about 80 percent of the KRG's annual budget, which means that it faces great risks if exports continue to stop, according to the analysis.[/size]
[size=45]The analysis indicates that the Turkish oil embargo has so far cost the Kurdistan Regional Government more than two billion dollars, indicating that its continuation could destroy the region's economy and may lead to the collapse of the semi-autonomous Kurdistan Regional Government.[/size]
[size=45]For many years, the KRG's economy has been suffering as a result of disagreements with the federal government regarding the region's share of the budget.[/size]
[size=45]And in the event that the dispute with Ankara remains unresolved, the analysis warns that this may lead to a large wave of migration of tens of thousands of Iraqi Kurds to Europe.[/size]
[size=45]“Also, the financial repercussions and large budget deficits in both the Kurdistan Regional Government and Baghdad could lead to a state of catastrophic instability in the region, something that armed groups such as ISIS could exploit, which could lead to further destabilization,” he said. analysis.[/size]
[size=45]The analysis also indicated that the continuation of the conflict threatens “the collapse of US investments in Iraq, the economic destabilization of the Iraqi federal government, and perhaps the rush of Russia and Iran to fill the geopolitical vacuum.”[/size]
[size=45]This deadlock, according to the analysis, has led IOCs in Iraq to cut investments by $400 million, lay off hundreds of workers, and threaten legal action.[/size]
[size=45]As the crisis continues, the analysis says, Iraq's reputation among investors will suffer increasingly.[/size]
[size=45]As a result of all this, the analysis believes that Erbil's continued loss of billions of dollars and the possibility of the collapse of the regional government may lead to a conflict between the two main parties in Kurdistan (the Kurdistan Democratic Party and the Patriotic Union) and eventually turn into an all-out civil war.[/size]
[size=45]The analysis continues that the instability in the Kurdistan region may extend to the rest of Iraq, which is already teetering on the brink of sectarian conflict.[/size]
[size=45]It is also possible that the fall of the “Kurdistan Regional Government” will create a vacuum that “allows Iran to intensify its interference in Iraq and threatens a nationwide civil war,” according to the analysis.[/size]
[size=45]Iraqi Oil Minister Hayan Abdul Ghani visited Ankara this week as he and his Turkish counterpart failed to reach an agreement on resuming oil exports, but the two sides agreed to hold further talks.[/size]
[size=45]The Turkish foreign minister, who arrived in Baghdad on Tuesday, held talks with his Iraqi counterpart on the issue of water and the resumption of oil exports from Iraqi Kurdistan to Turkey, in addition to the presence of the PKK in Iraq.[/size]
[size=45]The Turkish foreign and energy ministers also met with the president of the semi-autonomous Kurdistan Regional Government for talks, Thursday, on issues including the region's oil exports.[/size]
[size=45]There was no indication if an agreement had been reached to resume the flow of crude through Turkey.[/size]
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