Warnings about the government continuing to borrow externally: burdening the state

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[size=52]Warnings about the government continuing to borrow externally: burdening the state[/size]

[size=45]Every year, Iraq pays about 40 trillion dinars for the installments due from previous loans, according to specialists who confirmed that these loans burden the Iraqi budget and create problems in the long term, because they bear interest and take a large portion of the budget to pay the accumulated installments of the loans and their interest.[/size]
[size=45]The latest of these loans was the signing of the Minister of Finance, Taif Sami, with the Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of Japan to the Republic of Iraq, Futoshi Matsumoto, the day before yesterday, a memorandum of understanding and a loan worth $300 million from the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA), for a project to improve water supplies in Samawah. At a time when specialists believe that Iraq has sufficient capabilities and resources to finance even countries and not just the country and the budget, they call for searching for new financing methods away from borrowing by developing a five-year plan and a clear economic vision to achieve balance in the Iraqi budget and the deficit becomes zero and Iraq dispenses with borrowing.[/size]
[size=45]Accumulated investment debt[/size]
[size=45]The total balance of accumulated investment debts that are due for settlement and repayment from 2003 until today does not exceed $20 billion, according to the Prime Minister’s Advisor for Financial Affairs, Dr. Mazhar Muhammad Saleh.[/size]
[size=45]Saleh explains that “there is funding in the federal general budget that indicates annual external borrowing through agreements, for example with the World Bank or the Japanese International Cooperation Agency, or the Chinese according to the cooperation framework agreement, or from the American Exem Bank and others, all of which are directed to those funds.” Loans towards the implementation of investment projects in Iraq, and the allocation is withdrawn from the loan according to the progress of project implementation.”[/size]
[size=45]He adds, “All of these external loans are linked to investment, and they are soft loans in terms of the length of the repayment period and the grace period, until repayment is made with a low or acceptable interest. In the federal general budget for the year 2023, financing was allocated in the investment budget of approximately 10 trillion dinars out of the total allocations.” The investment budget reached 50 trillion dinars, or 20 percent of the total allocations directed to investment spending.”[/size]
[size=45]He points out that “such loans are subject to the condition of the golden rule, which stipulates that the return from operating the investment project financed by loans increases in growth at the rate of growth related to debt service.”[/size]
[size=45]He explains, “The method of repaying these debts stipulates paying the annual installment with interest and what is called debt amortization mostly, and according to annual allocations approved in the annual general budget.”[/size]
[size=45]Parliamentary rejection[/size]
[size=45]A member of the Parliamentary Oil, Gas and Natural Resources Committee, Bassem Al-Gharibawi, confirms that “borrowing burdens the state and future generations, and there are loans from previous years that remain, and their repayment processes are continuing, and we reject the idea of ​​new borrowing.”[/size]
[size=45]Al-Gharibawi continues, “Iraq needs an urban renaissance and infrastructure, and oil revenues at the present time are not sufficient to meet all needs, but this does not mean going to borrowing. Rather, we should search for new financing methods, and self-sufficiency in gas, which costs the country 10 trillion annually, and in products.” Oil, which costs $5 billion annually, as well as some energy.” The representative points out that “if loans are used for investment projects that establish infrastructure and provide revenues for the state, these are considered positive loans, according to the opinion of financial experts, but some loans are disbursed and then must be repaid, which burdens the state and the general budget.”[/size]
[size=45]$49 billion budget deficit in 2023[/size]
[size=45]According to the General Budget Law for 2023, total spending is about $150 billion, of which approximately $103 billion is revenue, and $49 billion is the deficit, according to oil expert, Kovind Sherwani.[/size]
[size=45]Sherwani adds, “The budget law was approved late in the sixth month of this year, and instructions were issued in the eighth month, and therefore state institutions were not able to spend all the amounts allocated to them. Therefore, it is expected, due to the limited spending this year and we are now in the last week of it, that Spending is less than the estimated value, which is more than $150 billion, and therefore the deficit will be less than $49 billion.”[/size]
[size=45]He continues, “On the other hand, the estimated oil revenues are about 90 billion dollars, and the non-oil revenues are 13 billion dollars, and these revenues were evaluated based on the price of a barrel of oil at 70 dollars, but oil did not fall below 80 and 90 dollars throughout the year 2023, so there will be A financial abundance of no less than $10 billion, which is less than the shortage in spending, so the deficit will have decreased to about $30 billion.”[/size]
[size=45]Continuing to borrow is not correct[/size]
[size=45]The oil expert confirms, “With the rise in oil prices and the improvement of other non-oil revenues, Iraq will not be obligated to continue borrowing, as happened in 2020 and 2021, and to enact a special borrowing law, because it can easily put pressure on total expenditures and reduce them to be close to actual revenues, and thus there will be no shortage or Budget deficit.”[/size]
[size=45]Sherwani continues, “But maintaining borrowing is incorrect, and it is better to develop non-oil revenues and raise them from the low percentage, which is about 14 percent in the law, while oil revenues are 86 percent.” He explains, “The Iraqi economy depends to a large degree, approximately 90 percent, on oil, and any fluctuations in the oil markets, whether high or low, will greatly affect public revenues and cause an increasing budget deficit.”[/size]
[size=45]He asserts, “It is better to develop a five-year plan and a clear economic vision, by developing other non-oil revenues, as well as developing the oil wealth itself, by optimally exploiting natural gas wealth, increasing refineries that provide billions of dollars in addition to crude oil sales, and developing other economic sectors.” Such as agriculture and industry, which have declined greatly over the past two decades.”[/size]
[size=45]He explains, “All of these may help achieve balance in the Iraqi budget, and the deficit will then become zero, and Iraq will dispense with borrowing that burdens the budget, because it bears interest and takes a large portion of the budget to repay the loans and the installments accumulated on these loans and their interest.”[/size]
[size=45]He continues, “These matters must be included in the budget calculation, even though the approved budget is for three years, 2023, 2024, and 2025, but many amendments can be made to it for the years 2024 and 2025, and what is important above all is to reduce expenditures to reduce the deficit, develop non-oil revenues, and reduce borrowing.” .[/size]
[size=45]He adds: “Also, the investment part of the budget should be developed and not the operational part, because the investment part does not exceed 25 percent, and this is supposed to include the establishment of new projects and the provision of job opportunities, and these new projects will provide additional income to the budget, so we must focus on them, and not reduce them under the pretext of covering The budget deficit.[/size]
[size=45]Sufficient capabilities and resources to finance countries[/size]
[size=45]For his part, the economic expert, Abdul Rahman Al-Sheikhli, points out that “Iraq has sufficient capabilities and resources to finance countries, not just the country and the budget, and the amounts allocated for the last budget (2023, 2024, and 2025) were 200 trillion dinars, and this is a large amount that is sufficient and meets the need.”[/size]
[size=45]But the problem, according to what Al-Sheikhli says, is that “some countries, establishments and international institutions offer the country their services in exchange for providing loans or implementing some projects on credit, such as the Chinese and Japanese loans and others. Therefore, in the 2021 budget - since there was no budget in 2022 - Iraq was a borrower from about 40 countries and institutions or providers of deferred projects to the country with soft loans and low interest rates.”[/size]
[size=45]He points out that “Iraq, at the beginning of the political and economic change that occurred after 2003, there was a need for borrowing because the country needed international support and the economies of large countries, but at the present time, after the stability of the political and security situation in the country, the need for these loans has disappeared.” “.[/size]
[size=45]He emphasizes, “Rather, it is supposed to invest the country’s capabilities for major projects that require some countries to invest their money in our country and not in the form of loans, but there is still a deficiency in the performance of Iraqi investment, and despite the investment law that was issued in 2006, investment still depends on an incorrect method.” “It does not fit with the reality of the situation in Iraq.”[/size]
[size=45]40 trillion dinars in loan installments paid annually[/size]
[size=45]The economist continues, “Therefore, during the next budget 2024 and 2025, it is assumed that new methods and tools will be used for investment without relying on loans that create problems in the long term, as there are about 40 trillion dinars that must be repaid every year, and sometimes there are investment projects to avoid delaying them, and the government is forced to pay interest.” These debts are amounts allocated for investment without paying part of the original debts.”[/size]
[size=45]Al-Sheikhli stresses the importance of “relying on internal revenues and migratory investments, as there is a lot of Iraqi capital that immigrated and left Iraq from 1980 until 2003, and (the matter became worse) after 2003 with the migration of many other numbers of capital owners.”[/size]
[size=45]He explains, “Attempting to attract capitalists migrating to the country for the purpose of investing them in new investments will prevent the country from borrowing.”[/size]
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