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Established in 2006 as a Community of Reality

Welcome to the Neno's Place!

Neno's Place Established in 2006 as a Community of Reality


Neno

I can be reached by phone or text 8am-7pm cst 972-768-9772 or, once joining the board I can be reached by a (PM) Private Message.

Established in 2006 as a Community of Reality

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    After the Sudanese statement that they would leave “quickly”... Will American forces withdraw from I

    Rocky
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    After the Sudanese statement that they would leave “quickly”... Will American forces withdraw from I Empty After the Sudanese statement that they would leave “quickly”... Will American forces withdraw from I

    Post by Rocky Wed 17 Jan 2024, 4:42 am

    After the Sudanese statement that they would leave “quickly”... Will American forces withdraw from Iraq?
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    Baghdad today - Baghdad
    A “rapid and orderly exit” of the international coalition forces led by the United States from Iraq, this is what Prime Minister Muhammad Shia al-Sudani recently demanded, amid escalating tensions between those forces and armed Iraqi factions, which raised fears of expanding the scope of the conflict in the Middle East and destabilizing Iraq. .
    While voices have been rising inside the country for years calling for the withdrawal of these forces following the attack of last October 7 launched by the Hamas movement on Israel, and the subsequent devastating war launched by Israel in the Gaza Strip, which it says aims to eliminate the movement.
    Coalition forces have been subjected to dozens of attacks since then, and American forces responded by carrying out raids against Iraqi armed groups.
    Al-Sudani said in an interview with Reuters news agency: “Let us agree on a time frame (for withdrawal) that will be quick so that we do not prolong the presence and the attacks continue,” noting that the only way to avoid a regional escalation is to stop the war in Gaza.
    What are the reasons for the presence of these forces in Iraq?
    After international forces led by the United States invaded Iraq in 2003 and overthrew its then president Saddam Hussein, those forces withdrew from the country in 2011. But in 2014, after what is known as the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIS) took control of the city of Mosul, the second largest city Iraq and its declaration of the “Islamic Caliphate” in the areas over which it was able to extend its influence in Iraq and Syria. The Iraqi government officially asked the United States and the United Nations to help it defeat the organization and protect the lands and people of Iraq, which led to the return of American-led coalition forces to the country, and the beginning of what is known as With Operation Inherent Resolve, which aims to help Iraqi forces defeat the organization's forces and regain the lands they controlled.
    The goal of the American forces was to train and advise the Iraqi army. The coalition also provided air cover for the Iraqi security forces, armed factions, and Kurdish Peshmerga forces that fought the organization between 2015-2017, until control was restored over the lands it had seized.
    Washington maintained about 2,500 soldiers in Iraq, even after ending ISIS’s efforts to establish an Islamic caliphate in 2019. By the end of 2021, American combat operations in Iraq officially ended, and the mission of its forces there became to provide advice and assistance to Iraqi forces to increase their ability to operate independently. As part of its efforts to focus on achieving stability and reconstruction of the areas that were under the control of the organization, while at the same time continuing its raids on small sites where the organization is still holed up in the west of the country and in areas located across the border with the Kurdistan region.
    Iraqi opposition and tensions 
    The presence of American forces in Iraq has long been opposed by many Iraqi factions. 
    At the beginning of 2020, the Iraqi Parliament ratified a resolution obligating the government to work to end the presence of any foreign forces on Iraqi soil. This came shortly after the assassination of Qassem Soleimani, commander of the Quds Force of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, in an American air strike that targeted his vehicle in the vicinity of Baghdad Airport, and also resulted in the killing of Abu Mahdi Al-Muhandis, deputy head of the Iraqi Popular Mobilization Forces, and others.
    Several threats were issued by Iraqi armed factions close to Iran to expel the American forces present on Iraqi soil at the Ain al-Assad and Erbil bases. These two bases were subjected to many attacks by Iraqi militants during the era of former Prime Minister Mustafa Al-Kadhimi, but they calmed down during the era of the current Prime Minister Muhammad Shiaa Al-Sudani, the candidate of the Coordination Movement bloc, who took office in late October 2022.
    The Iraqi academic and political analyst, Dr. Alaa Mustafa, says, “Withdrawal was among the conditions set for the government of Muhammad Shiaa al-Sudani, and it adopted this issue. In return, the factions granted him a truce that strengthened his position with the American side and made him feel that he held the keys in his hand and controlled those who carried weapons.”
    This truce has collapsed since the outbreak of war in Gaza following the October 7 attack.
    Since then, American forces in Iraq, the Iraqi Kurdistan region, and Syria have been subjected to more than 100 missile or drone attacks, including a missile attack on the American embassy on December 8. 
    Washington responded by launching attacks on Iraqi armed factions, including the Popular Mobilization Forces and the Al-Nujaba Movement, which falls under the umbrella of the Mobilization Forces, and whose Secretary-General, Akram Al-Kaabi, is considered one of the most prominent critics of the United States. Al-Kaabi called in the wake of the killing of members of the Popular Mobilization Forces in an American raid last November. To "declare war on America" ​​and remove its forces from Iraq.
    What is the Iraqi Al-Nujaba Armed Movement and what is its role?
    A day before Prime Minister Shia al-Sudani announced earlier this month the formation of a committee to prepare to end the mission of the US-led international coalition in Iraq, an American raid targeted a prominent leader in the Nujaba Movement, Mushtaq Talib al-Saeedi, nicknamed “Abu Taqwa,” which an official described as An American told CNN that he was a member of an “Iranian proxy group operating in Iraq and Syria,” in reference to Harakat al-Nujaba.
    Before his latest announcement, Al-Sudani tried to hold the stick in the middle, as his media office stated that he “renewed to US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken Iraq’s position of rejecting any aggression against Iraqi lands,” but he “at the same time renewed the Iraqi government’s commitment to protecting the international coalition’s advisors present in Iraq.” ".
    Alaa Mustafa says that the Iraqi government “was trying to take control of matters, and its speeches had a severe impact on the factions, as some statements described the targeting of the American embassy as a terrorist act, and we did not see this speech even during the era of the government of Mustafa Al-Kadhimi, who was not close to the factions, unlike "Sudanese Shi'ism, which is one of the outcomes of the coordination framework that includes political forces and factions."
    He adds, “The intelligence operation, and I stress that it was an intelligence operation that had nothing to do with the coalition forces, but was carried out purely by America, and it is similar to the airport operation (during which Qassem Soleimani was killed), which targeted the leadership of the Nujaba movement, severely embarrassed the government and it was no longer able to demand a renewal of the truce. So, We have no choice now but to conduct negotiations that end with the departure of the coalition forces.”
    The presence of forces between American and Iraqi interests
    Among the most prominent American interests in keeping its forces in Iraq, according to an article by David Bullock, a fellow at the Bernstein Program at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy published on the center’s website, are maintaining friendly relations with Iraq, countering Iranian influence, and preventing Iran from “exploiting Iraqi oil.” . Bullock adds that the withdrawal of American forces “creates additional threats to Israel’s security,” and that “all Gulf Cooperation Council countries see American forces in Iraq as a basis for the American military units they host on their soil, and a vital factor in their self-defense against Iran.”
    Professor Steve Simon, professor of Middle Eastern studies at the University of Washington and former director of the Middle East and North Africa Department at the US National Security Council during the era of President Obama, believes that there are a large number of Iraqi sectors that benefit from the American military presence.
    Professor Simon added in statements to the BBC, “There is a material benefit as the United States obtains raw materials from Iraq, and there is a strategic benefit because the American presence prevents the return of ISIS again and achieves a balance with Iran. Many Iraqis do not want to submit to American hegemony, But at the same time, they do not want to submit to Iranian hegemony. The Iraqi army receives high-quality training and equipment from the American side, and therefore it is preferable for the United States to remain. The Iraqi Kurds also see that the American presence protects them from Turkey, Iran, and Baghdad, and they also benefit from the aspect Finance from the American presence.
    Regarding whether the withdrawal of American forces is in Iraq’s interest, Dr. Alaa Mustafa says, “From a military standpoint, it is the leadership of the armed forces that decide whether we need it or not, and when they say their frank words, the Iraqi government will abide.”
    But at the same time, he warns of the importance of arranging the withdrawal amicably with the American side through negotiation, “so that Iraq is not faced with a package of economic sanctions as a result of its dealings with some countries subject to American sanctions. Also, if the arrival of packages of dollars to Iraq is obstructed, this may cause problems.” "Economic."
    It is noteworthy that the United States has excluded Iraq from the sanctions it imposes on Tehran, allowing it to purchase electricity from Iran.
    Professor Simon says that the United States will not impose sanctions on Iraq, but “there is a feeling, especially among the resistance factions, that this may happen if the Iraqi forces are forced to leave...the mere presence of this feeling among some Iraqis is sufficient in itself to accept the presence of American forces inside.” Iraq".
    Dr. Alaa stresses the importance of the Iraqi negotiator’s focus on resolving all issues, “meaning that if the forces withdraw without addressing the terrorist incubators, especially the Al-Hawl camp [in Syria], which may explode at any moment... it is not easy to be satisfied with the presence of an explosive device behind Your wall, not to mention the presence of irregular forces on the Syrian side of the border, all of this poses a threat to Iraq’s security.”
    While Professor Simon believes that there is no real pressure on the Iraqi government that would push it to demand that Washington withdraw its forces, Dr. Alaa says that “the approaching American elections will, in my opinion, cause a state of embarrassment to the American government and President Biden if these forces are targeted, resulting in casualties among the ranks of the Iraqi government.” The American side, especially in lives. Therefore, they are aware of the seriousness of the situation and now they have no choice but to engage in negotiations to organize this withdrawal. The technical problem is in the time of withdrawal, how long does it take: a year? Two? Three? But if they refuse or procrastinate, they will be faced with an escalation that may It ultimately leads to an agreement.”
    He stresses that the Iraqi negotiator must be able to absorb all the variables, “particularly the main variable, which is the approaching American elections. Secondly, the regional crises and the war between Ukraine and Russia, as well as the conflict between Israel and Gaza.” 
    The third strategic factor is the Ansar Allah Houthi movement and its ability to obstruct the American trade process in Bab al-Mandab. These things are all pressure cards that can be used to reach an agreement that preserves Iraq’s stability.”
    Source: BBC
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